We’ve seen our a fair amount of changes this season. One we haven’t talked about was the early introduction of themes – and this week, we got a special one. For what is arguably the most commercial, the most contemporary, the most “in” top 24 in Idol history, we got… the 60s. We sense just a bit of a disconnect here. What we ended up with was an… interesting week, although the eliminations were fairly predictable.

What were they thinking: One thing has to be said about the theme. We like Nigel Lythgoe – he’s certainly far more forthright and open when it comes to interviews than any of the judges – but he, and the rest of the AI crew, made a mistake when it came to the theme. His offered excuse – that they wanted to give the top 24 a genre with more “musical” songs (whatever the heck that means) and minimize song clearance issues – is lame, at best.

What the definition of more “musical” is, we have no idea, and clearing a grand total of 50 songs for 24 people? Is the Idol production staff on something? That is nowhere near enough, particularly since there is always a lot of diversity in the top 24. You can’t come up with 50 songs that all 24 contestants can pick from and be happy with. As we said last year: given the resources that the Idol machine commands, “the song wasn’t cleared” is something that should be a rare, rare thing.

The upshot of this is that a lot of the top 24 were forced to sing songs that were not really in their styles, in our opinion. This was particularly true for the guys – for example, with the exception, maybe, of Michael Johns, this bunch had no business touching Elvis. The top 24 did not do all that well, but the artificially narrow song selection had a great deal to do with it.

Boredom, thy name is top 24: The hype machine has been in full steam this season, but hype and reality collided on Tuesday and Wednesday nights. The results were not all that pretty.

What made guys’ night so bad wasn’t so much bad singing or song choices. It was because we didn’t hear anything that was particularly distinctive. It wasn’t good or bad, it was just mind-numbingly dull. There was very little that could make one say out loud “He sang that one well,” or “he was terrible beyond reason.” The reaction could be more accurately described as “who are these people?”

If the last paragraph sounds just a little familiar, it’s because it’s what we said this exact same time last year! Apparently, our AI contestants – or most of them – haven’t learned anything in the past year. They really should take a page from Bo Bice, who wrote the manual on how to succeed right out of the top 24. Little, if any, pre-show publicity, but he came out of the gate with superb performances that put him safely into the top 12.

Let’s get down to the details. Of the guys, we found three outstanding performances. Michael Johns did extremely well, but that was expected. The question for Michael is: where does he go from here? We know he can do the songs like Bohemian Rhapsody and Light My Fire, but is that all he can do, or does he something else up his sleeve? The talent and experience is there, though, and he’s a sure thing for the top 12.

Someone else who met the expectations was David Archuleta. It’s hard to believe someone could be so young and sing that well, but he does. You can’t say anything bad about his performance at all. He’s the closest to a sure thing in this season. It’s hard for us not to imagine him in the final four. (And yes, that is a long way off. We know that.)

The biggest surprise was Jason Castro. Pre-top 24, he was probably best known for his hair. After it, he’s definitely on the radar for his singing. Now, he had help with the guitar. It’s going to be very interesting what to see he does without any instruments, but he is definitely someone to keep an eye for.

In the next category down would be David Hernandez, David Cook, and Robbie Carrico. (Why oh why did there have to be so many Davids?) They were all good performances, but there were all tiny little things that made them not quite as good. For David Hernandez, Simon was right that he needed to “loosen up”. One of the hallmarks of a truly good performance is that it seems effortless, but he failed on that mark.

Everyone else was downright terrible. Chikezie (who lost his surname somewhere along the way) not only sang poorly, but tried to duel with Simon Cowell. Neither is a recipe for Idol success. Elvis is somewhere in heaven with the Idol gods, cringing that two of his songs were butchered beyond recognition. Jason Yeager thought he was Anwar Robinson, and failed miserably. It’s not a good sign for the guys when fully half of their performances were woeful. It’s no surprise at all that the bootees came from this group.

In contrast, the girls turned in a much better night. Alaina Whitaker and Ramiele Malubay were the definite topnotchers of the night. Alaina picked the perfect song for her, and turned in a performance that was just right for it. Ramiele, meanwhile, was simply amazing: you rarely get such a potent mix of power and control in one person. Add in the fact that she looks effortless when singing, and you’ve got a newly established favorite in this show. Both of them are sure to make the top 12.

Just behind those two were four good performances. Carly Smithson was up against something that she had no control over – and no, we don’t mean the flu. The hype behind her was so big it was impossible to meet it. Considered objectively, it was pretty good: her control was spot on, the delivery was convincing, and the power was there (although Carly likes to go for it a little too much, we think). We’d like to see what she does next week,when she has, hopefully, recovered from the flu.

The judges may not have liked it, but we were quite impressed with Kady Malloy. A slow ballad may not have been the best way to introduce yourself to America, but Kady sung it as well as you could expect. Randy may have complained that she didn’t cut loose with her power, but to us that was actually a good thing. It’s very easy to go for the power and turn into a shouter instead of a singer. The criticism from Simon and Paula was just utter nonsense, and coming from Simon in particular it was quite disappointing.

Asia’h Epperson and Alexandrea both turned in numbers that depended not just on their vocals, but their performing abilities as well. Alexandrea’s, though, leaned on those more than Asia’h did. Alexandrea may well be the best pure performer in this whole group, and while that was enough to get her a good performance right now, if the vocals don’t match up she’ll be in trouble. Asia’h's was more balanced, and her vocals are as good as anyone else right now. For both of them, we’d like to see how they do with songs that rely more on pure vocals.

As for the six other girls, there were two utter disasters – Joanne Borgella and Amy Davis. America called it right – both of them were all over during their songs and were easily the worst of the girls. Not much more needs to be said.

The other four performances were, to borrow one of Randy’s favorite words, were a’right. We were just a bit disappointed in Brooke White – she is probably the most unique artistically of the entire top 24, but we saw none of that this week. It was a very average performance, and there was no trace of charisma or uniqueness that we think she has. With this many strong performances, you have to be really good to advance to the top 12 this season if you’re a girl. Right now, she is not. Kristy Lee Cook is in the same boat. They both need to step it up.

Amanda Overmeyer and Syesha Mercado also have something in common: they both need to prove their vocal abilities. As performers, they are pretty good, and Syesha is as good as they get. But, and it’s a huge but, where are their vocals? Amanda can’t keep growling forever, and Syesha needs to lay off the power and show us some control. As a complete package, both of them lack some key components. They need to show something different next week, otherwise they are in serious trouble.

Making even less sense than usual: What was up with all the strange comments from the judges this week? Paula spouted even more rubbish than usual about colors, and Simon spent time picking apart Carly’s microphone technique. Was everyone on Paula’s medication this week?

Year after year, it amazes us that these people are paid millions for what many other people would do for less. Paula’s is worth around $5-8 million per year. Simon’s said to be around $10 million (plus his share of the post-Idol profits). Would it be too much to ask for sensible comments from the judges, not standard, off-the-shelf components that an android version of our judges could repeat?

Pre-top 24 pimpage matters… or does it?: Something that’s being talked about right now, and will be talked about in the next two weeks, is how limited pre-show airtime for certain contestants can hurt people’s chances and get them booted off. They’ll offer, for this week, Garrett Haley, who (as far as we can remember) wasn’t show before this week.

Here’s our take on this topic, which inevitably comes up year in and year out. It doesn’t matter much, if at all.

One mantra we keep repeating, as far as AI and the online community around it, is simple: what we think doesn’t always matter. Yes, there are plenty of people who like to pick favorites based on the tiny snippets of footage we see from the auditions and Hollywood. They’re the kind who like to post on Internet message boards all over, FORT included. The fact is, though, that most people don’t do that. They may watch the show religiously, they may spend tons of money texting in votes, but they’re not picking favorites yet. People are usually more sensible than pundits will give them credit.

The upshot is, we think most people don’t really decide whether someone is good until they hear them sing. They may have seen them before, in auditions or Hollywood, but that won’t matter, as far as voting is concerned.

The only time it might matter is if you’re right on the edge between being voted off and not being voted off… but that can only buy you so much time. If you’re already in danger of elimination this early, there’s a reason: you’re just not cut out to be the next American Idol. You’re either a lousy singer, or you’re boring, or, worst of all, both. There’s no conspiracy, and it’s not the editor’s fault. A lot of this reasoning comes from fanboys (or fangirls) of an eliminated contestant, and that’s all it is: the howls of disappointment from an energetic (if small) fanbase.

Welcome back to the latest installment of American Idol. As we write this, we’re all done watching the latest batch of deluded psychopaths, famewhores, and lunatics undiscovered talent from all corners of the United States. The Idol preseason is over, and unlike spring training, hopefully the only juice is in Paula’s Coke cup. But first, what has the rest of the AI gang been up to?

The Terrible Trio – Plus One: As far as our judges are concerned, it’s been a somewhat busy offseason. Paula and Randy have been working on her new album, which should be released sometime during the season. Everyone who was watching the Super Bowl on Fox also got a peek of Paula’s music video, and while we didn’t get to watch that particular bit of entertainment, we’re told that it didn’t go over so well with the viewers at large. (Of course, that wasn’t the last bit of Idol on the Super Bowl. It was on Fox, after all.)

Meanwhile, Simon was off doing what he does best – no, not anything music-related. We’re told that Simon is currently the fastest British celebrity in a Chevy compact car. In fact, we have it on good authority that he has “natural ability” around a race track. Now, if only Simon could direct his energies to not manipulating the top 24, we might actually have a good season.

And, of course, we have the Metrosexual-in-Chief, Ryan Seacrest. We have no idea what he did in the offseason, except appear a lot on the Super Bowl. Do we really need to give him any more publicity?

Idol by the numbers: Idol is almost unique in the world of reality TV in that the end “product” – the winning finalist – is judged by the whole public – not just the viewing audience – with their wallets. It’s a good thing we don’t gamble or buy stocks (which aren’t that different), because our predictions for how our two finalists from Season Six would sell were way, way, off. Let’s run it down, shall we? (First, though, the credit: we extend thanks to our own razorbacker and Cary the chart guru from carriefans.com for providing us with the sales numbers. Also, we’ve taken the liberty of rounding off all figures to the nearest thousand.)

Both Jordin and Blake have had their albums out for long enough that we can reasonably judge their success. Sometimes a later single can boost sales of an album significantly, but to get the needed “buzz” for later singles, you need to do well right out of the gate, period. On this account, let’s just say our Season 6 finalists have been… less than successful.

The best comparison that can be made is to the other Idol finalists. Now, there are some caveats. Different genres do sell at different rates, and we also have to consider that rarely has any industry gone out of its way to alienate customers the way the record industry has in recent years. The trend towards digital sales has also hurt the sales of CDs. (An aside here: we normally like the trend towards all things digital, but not this time. Speaking as an audiophile, the quality of just about all songs sold online is horrific, compared to a properly mastered audio CD.)

Here are the sales of various Idol-related albums after four weeks:

1. Clay Aiken (Measure of a Man) – 1,092,000
2. Ruben Studdard (Soulful) – 957,000
3. Carrie Underwood (Carnival Ride) – 932,000
4. Kelly Clarkson (Breakaway) – 851,000
5. Carrie Underwood (Some Hearts) – 830,000
6. Chris Daughtry (Daughtry) – 795,000
7. Kelly Clarkson (Thankful) – 623,000
8. Taylor Hicks – 559,000
9. Fantasia Barrino (Free Yourself) – 510,000
10. Bo Bice (The Real Thing) – 454,000
11. Jordin Sparks – 285,000
12. Blake Lewis (Audio Day Dream) – 231,000
13. Ruben Studdard (I Need An Angel) – 229,000
14. Katharine McPhee – 219,000
15. Kellie Pickler (Small Town Girl) – 181,000

Now, you may ask, why the numbers for the first four weeks? For one, the numbers just aren’t available for the lower-selling albums for further weeks. Also, these numbers are good for measuring the popularity out of the gate. (It’s worth nothing that the two best-selling albums on this list so far, Some Hearts and Breakaway, became successful due to sheer longevity. They both had a follow-up single that became wildly successful.) Still, it’s a good measure of success: for most commercial releases, you don’t gradually build up numbers. A great deal of the sales come up front.

Looking at the graph, we can see how poorly Jordin and Blake started. Most artists would be happy with those kinds of numbers, sure, but for AI finalists the expectations are different. Next to their peers, they didn’t do so well. That’s unavoidable; and no spin on earth will get around that. That’s the ultimate indictment of Season Six.

What if we limit the scope, and try to measure for a longer period? Let’s make it twelve weeks, and this is what we get.

1. Clay Aiken (Measure of a Man) – 2,154,000
2. Carrie Underwood (Some Hearts) – 2,000,000 (Our estimate; week 11 total was 1.94 million)
3. Carrie Underwood (Carnival Ride) – 1,747,000
4. Ruben Studdard (Soulful) – 1,468,000
5. Kelly Clarkson (Breakway) – 1,420,000
6. Kelly Clarkson (Thankful) – 1,227,000
7. Fantasia Barrino (Free Yourself) – 982,000
8. Jordin Sparks – 494,000
9. Ruben Studdard (I Need An Angel) – 359,000

The numbers still look poor for our Season Six finalists. Blake dropped off the list altogether; and Jordin’s chances of hitting one million are looking downright impossible.

The underlying point of all these numbers is actually fairly simple. With the first four Idol debut albums all going multi-platinum (Carrie’s, especially so), the Idol powers-that-be became spoiled, in a matter of speaking. They began to expect that America’s biggest TV show could produce, right out of the box, a multi-platinum star out of the gate. You could say they didn’t moderate their greed.

For a while, it could. Even Fantasia, a flawed winner in her own right, managed healthy sales. But then the music industry changed without Idol noticing it. CD sales started coming down, downloads started coming up, and all of a sudden it became a lot harder to sell millions of albums. It’s popular in the AI pundit community to regard Taylor Hicks as something of a commercial flop, but what if that wasn’t the case? Perhaps, he was a sign of things to come: more niche-oriented singers, selling well in their field but not quite reaching million-album sales, putting more energy and resources into touring.

The upshot is, it’s clear to us that we have to lower the expectations of our Idol winners post-season. Gone, probably, are the early days when merely winning could give you a platinum album right out of the gate. One should note that if you take Carrie out of the equation, sales have been falling since the days of Fantasia. This is something that has been brewing for a long time; it just so happened that in between you had one winner who bucked the trend and another who could be excused away. With Season Six, however, the drop was just too big to be missed, and the trend became obvious.

A more reasonable expectation, therefore, would be around Taylor’s sales: half a million within four weeks, to about 750,000 within months. Given the current shape of CD sales, that’s not such a bad goal. Most artists would probably love to have success like that even once in their whole career. Of course, Jordin and Blake still sold below that figure, but that’s no surprise. Blake wasn’t going to be able to go far beyond his small niche audience, and Jordin, while exceptionally talented, never really figured out where she was musically. More than anything else, Jordin represents a cautionary tale of what happens when you thrust a 16-year-old into the music industry. It may or may not work. (We’ll probably return to the always controversial Idol age limit in a future article.)

If you don’t mind, we’d like to cancel this deal: Speaking of Taylor, he was one of several Idol alumni who lost their contracts during the offseason. Off the top of our head, he was joined in that club by Ruben and fellow Season Five alum Katharine. What the hell happened there?

The one person who we dare say is probably better off without a big-label deal is Taylor. Even though he was undoubtedly talented, he never seemed to “fit” all that well with a big record label. His “poor” sales gave the labels an excuse to ditch him. Given that we have a feeling he may not have been all that happy with the limits that ended up being placed on him artistically, he’s probably better off now.

As for Ruben, his case is proof that Idol can only take you so far. He stumbled a bit with his second album, and his third fared even worse. It may be harsh, but the truth is he’s made a mess of his career post-Idol. We can’t blame the labels for that decision. Kat? Well… we think she has a future in the entertainment industry, but not anything having to do with singing. A carrer as an actress is probably better for her – and, we have to admit, she has the looks to pull it off.

And, finally: Enough of the past seasons. What about this one? The process so far has been… interesting to say the least. There have been some changes, but that’s not unexpected. Season Three’s poorly received finale led to the adoption of the current top 24 format, as an example. The Idol powers-that-be are not as clueless as they sometimes seem to be.

On the purely ridiculous level, the much promoted decision to allow people to use instruments ended up being… pure hype. How many auditions with instruments did we actually get to see? (And no, blink-and-you-miss-it ones don’t count.) Just as important, what was the point if the contestants aren’t allowed to use them in the top 24?

Much more importantly, though, is the elimination of the early eliminations in Hollywood. It should be obvious that the more data you have, the better your decisions should be. Before, though, people were getting eliminated because of, essentially, one song. In addition, the group songs were more an exercise in psychology than singing. (We should also note that if we ever hear the words “sugar pie, honey bunch” again, it will be far too soon.)

The one thing that struck us about the top 24 is the degree to which the producers have selected a “safe” grouping. What do we mean by “safe”? It’s simple: no more Sanjayas or Antonellas to muck things up, as far as we can see. After the way that scandal, not singing, dominated most of Season Six, the producers have decided: we can’t go back to business as usual; we need the focus to be on the singing (and that should be good, too.)

Note, also, that a lot of the top 24 seem to be sort of in the mold of successful Idols from before, or idiot-proof commercially: lots of rockers and/or quasi-rockers (Chris Daughtry, anyone?); quite a few country types; a few more to cater to the tween audience. No persons who got there because they’d be talked about, or had a sob story, or makes good TV. (Either Josiah or Kyle, for example, would have made the top 24 in any other season.)
For once, Ryan Seacrest may be right: this could well be the most talent-loaded top 24, but not for the reasons the producers would probably like us to think.

Of course, there may well be a reason for that top 24 being so good: the phrase “undiscovered talent” comes with disclaimers. Carly Smithson is the poster child for this, but she’s far from alone. Now, this doesn’t bother us that much. There have always been some contestants with more experience than the rest, and they usually do well. Kelly had a demo tape; Carrie had a development deal that fell through; and both Blake and Taylor were fairly well-known regional acts. While I don’t think it would cause a stir in the general public, this is something that has the online Idol punditocracy a little riled up. We predict major howls of protest if one of these semi-pros win. As far as we’re concerned, if it makes the singing better, it’s good.

In the end, though, it’ll be up to the voting public to decide if all of us prognosticators are right or dead wrong. One thing’s sure: if we ever did a Bad Predictions roundup at season’s end, we’ll have to include ourself. Multiple times.