Normally, there’s at least some consensus about which performanes were good and which were bad. This week, though… that’s not quite possible. There’s a strong degree of Your Mileage May Vary this week. Stronger, perhaps, than any other week in Idol history.

The vocals of the top four were, to be honest, pretty close. The big difference was in how they made use of it – the overall artistry, the personality – etcetera. This was, really, a good test of the overall musical IQ of the contestants. In that category, there was one who clearly stood out.

Of the top four, the best was Allison Iraheta. This was a poised, confident, powerful performance. Her vocals were excellent, the arrangement allowed her to bring her power to bear… as well as a degree of finesse that we haven’t seen from her before. It’s not the usual rock performance that’s expected of Allison, but a little flexibility can sometimes work on Idol. It certainly did for her.

It’s usually Kris Allen who takes a song, slows and strips it down, and makes it work for his vocals – but Danny actually outdid him in that category. I personally liked the slower portion of the song much better than the end – Danny just cannot bring in the power without sounding like he’s shouting. As for Kris, it wasn’t a bad effort, but it didn’t have the special flavor that his best performances have had. Still, it was a respectable showing, and vocally it was pretty good. Very restrained, excellent control – it was a technical masterpiece, but there’s more to good performances than that.

As for Adam, well… I didn’t care too much for the white suit, but then again I tend to associate white suites either with fried chicken or Fantasy Island. That said… it was a typically Adam performance. Over the top, very theatrical, good vocals. However, while the glory note at the end was clearly meant to show off his vocals, but it was more than a bit painful to listen to. Not because it was bad, but because some human ears – ours included – can be a little sensitive.

Worst of the night was, clearly, Matt Giraud. One little bit of advice: it’s probably not a good idea to do a song that was one of Melinda Doolittle’s best performances. It was emotional… but that was about it. The vocals were not up to the task of the rest of the field. Simon thought this was his brilliant? What was he on?

Overall, though, it was a pretty good night. The excessive amount of filler – only five performances in an hour – notwithstanding, it was a worthwhile show. I didn’t care much for the material, to be honest, but there’s no arguing with the quality – Allison was outstanding, Matt wasn’t a complete disaster (about the best you can expect from him right now), and the rest were good, but not really outstanding. We’ll take it, though.

Mr. Cowell, the strings are showing: Favoritism from the judges is a long-standing Idol problem. Rarely, however, was that more on display than this week.

It’s possible to say that Kris and Allison weren’t as good as Adam and Danny.  However, the spin that Simon Cowell put on it was manipulation of the worst kind.

Neither Kris and Allison were favored at the start, and both – particularly Kris – can interfere with the cherished Adam-Danny finale. The judging was a pretty blatant attempt at trying to derail either one early. So, too, was the overpraise for Matt Giraud.

The Idolsphere is on to your shenanigans, Simon. We still haven’t forgotten, say… Syesha Mercado. If you think you can get away with this without any repercussions… you may think so, but there will be consequences.

The obvious pick… maybe?: The main question this week, as far as the picks go, is Matt Giraud. Did he do enough to save himself – or, alternately, will external factors save him?

Normally, this should be an open and shut case. He was definitely not as good as the rest of the field, his fanbase is suspect… there’s no reason he should go.

However… this is Idol-land, where the abnormal is normal. Can you really rule out an exit by Allison or Kris?

This time… probably. All the praise in the world won’t change the fact that Matt was the worst last night. Sure, he wasn’t bad, but he wasn’t as good as the rest.

Also, comments like the one Simon made can backfire. I have more confidence in the strength of Allison’s fanbase than I had a few weeks ago. Yes, she was bottom three last week, but Matt received a huge bounce from his save then. Simon’s comments are just the type that can rally, not depress, a fanbase. In addition, the unfairness of the comments will also help Allison’s vote totals.

These picks are getting trickier as the season goes on, and I would like to keep my excellent prediction record. I’ve only been wrong about the save, but I’ve put the right person in the bottom all season long. For now, though, the pick is…

Matt Giraud to go home.

Conventional Wisdom had it that disco night would not go down well. After all, with the exception of Adam Lambert, none of the group was particularly qualified to handle the… unique aspects of disco music.

As it turned out, however, the whole Top 7 was taking a correspondence course from the Lewis-Cook School of Theme Avoidance. Did anyone really do a straight-up disco night? They didn’t, and that was a great example of musical savviness that we haven’t seen much of this year… up until last night.

Best of the night – surprisingly – was Kris Allen. It was definitely not the standard way to do She Works Hard For the Money – but it worked brilliantly. It was a very relaxed, laid-back vibe to the song that reminded us of of a Jason Castro on good form. As Kara said: it’s hard to believe it was a Donna Summer original. Well done, and perhaps his best performance to date. It’s a pity, though, that the judging was full of references to cross-dressing – which was a distraction, to say the least.

Adam Lambert was supposed to be the best at disco music, but curiously he went back to his restrained self with If I Can’t Have You. It was a good performance – controlled vocals, good job with the emotions… but style-wise it was quite similar to his earlier ballad efforts. (Note: since the Top 11, Adam has always alternated his pace – a fast song one week, then a slow one the next.) Still, overall, a good effort, not what people expected… maybe not what he should have done. It still gets the second best performance of the night, though.

It’s pretty clear that one’s opinion of Allison Iraheta’s Hot Stuff depends on what one thinks of the arrangement. I thought it was okay – though it seemed to have suffered even more than usual at the hands of the Idol editors to fit it in the allotted time. Still, the vocals were in the same league as Adam or Kris, but it just wasn’t as well put together. Great effort, but just a bit short.

Danny wins the dubious award of Most Overpraised performance of the night. It wasn’t a bad performance per se, but all that praise had me wondering if the judges and me were in the same universe. (Except for Simon.) It didn’t sound particularly stand out to me vocally, and the whole performance smacked of extremely well-done karaoke.

Matt Giraud improved over last week… but that’s not saying much. Like Danny, Matt’s version of Stayin’ Alive wasn’t the most original or groundbreaking performance around. It was decent, entertaining… and not much else.

That’s better than could be said for Anoop Desai, though. It was… strange. The vocals weren’t bad per se, it just that it didn’t fit together into a coherent song very well. Like Danny again, this felt like karaoke – except that it wasn’t even good karaoke, with a strange arrangement.

Lil is again occupying the cellar with I’m Every Woman. It wasn’t as execrably bad as some of her other efforts have been, but… this was the most karaoke of karaoke performances. It was a classic case of making up bad singing with energy – but that’s something which just shouldn’t be the case this deep into the competition. Not good enough for any stage of the finals, let alone past the halfway point.

Overall, it was a pretty decent night. The top three really stood out and made their presence felt. They took what might have been a difficult theme and made it work pretty well for them. Even the rest of the field was decent, and even the “bad” performances like Anoop and Lil weren’t utter trainwrecks; they may not have made much sense (musically), but the vocals weren’t decent. This week was the first sign of life this season has seen in a while. (I’ll have more on this for our full-up analysis piece later in the week.)

Double Trouble: Honestly, if you read last week’s ranking this week shouldn’t have come as much of a surprise. Within reason, those who have been good up to this date stayed good, while those who were bad stayed awful.

The obvious pick to go home is Lil. She was no good this week, and she’s been in the bottom three for two past weeks. It’s time for her to go home.

As for the other slot… it’s either going to be Anoop or Matt. That one is pretty clear. It’s going to be another fanbase battle, and I have to give the advantage to Matt there: his fanbase is probably the most energized in Idol history. Getting saved by the judges produces what is essentially a bottom three bounce writ large.

Anoop, on the other hand, was not as good as Matt (although, to be fair, not a lot separated them), and just as importantly his fanbase has not really been there: even when he’s been good of late he’s ended up in the bottom three. This week, without even the benefit of a good performance to save him… his time is up.

The Idol Guy picks: Anoop and Lil to go home.

Normally Quentin Tarantino movies are distinguished by the high body count, so there’s a touch of irony that this week the Idol body count was zero. The judges turned out to be in a better mood than a decent chunk of America tends to be on Tax Day, and gave Matt Giraud a reprieve.

It’s an amusing idea that somehow Matt is on the same level as everyone else who got mentioned earlier on the season. He isn’t even close. He can have his moments – So Small was his best one – but of late he’s been tanking, to put it mildly. On that level, his elimination was not some great injustice that needed to be remedied.

I said at the start of the season that the Judges’ Save was largely intended for favorites who ended up in trouble, and I stand by that statement. What changed, however, was that the original planned recipients – Danny and Adam – turned out not to need them at all. Danny has been “singing to a level” in a sense – he does well enough to not become a target for elimination, if not much better.

As for Adam, he’s managed to avoid turning in another Ring of Fire that was just as likely to hurt as help him. That was the real danger for Adam, and even if he turned one in next week his fanbase is probably strong enough by now to insure that won’t be a problem either.

Realistically, then, the judges now had a veto they didn’t exactly plan on having at this stage. So why use it now? They essentially had to. Not using the veto would probably have caused another furor: if would have been derided as nothing more than a ratings stunt, it would be raising the tension for contestants unnecessarily, etc. Considering, too, that they had a perfect candidate for saving earlier in the season (Alexis Grace), not using it would probably have been another public relations gaffe Idol didn’t really need.

With that in mind, it didn’t really matter how well or how poorly the last placer did – so long as it wasn’t bad enough that the judges couldn’t possibly justify saving him/her. Matt wasn’t quite that bad, and he has been good before.

Realistically, the only thing that got saved was the judges’ – and producers’ – bacon. Matt’s still departing sooner rather than later – but it avoids a possible furor down the road. It was done strictly for dramatic – and PR – purposes. This wasn’t the grandiose idea that was proposed at the start of the season to save Those Who Left Too Soon.

The Road to the Finale: With only five weeks remaining in the Idol season, we’re all definitely entering the homestretch. Whether that’s good or bad, well… your mileage may definitely vary.

Let’s take a look at the seven remaining contestants and see what they all need to do to get to the finale. They’re ranked in order of likeliest to make it there:

1. Adam Lambert

I’d rather not say that Adam is sure to make it to the finale. After all, I said that of Melinda Doolittle two seasons ago – and look how that ended up.

Still, Adam is still the safest bet in this field to get that far. His main challenge is twofold: avoid turning in one (or more) Ring of Fire-like disasters, and guarding against a complacent fan base. A good analogy here is Chris Daughtry: everyone thought he was headed to the finale, but two so-so performances (at best) and a fanbase that became complacent (due to Katharine McPhee’s twin trainwrecks that same night) ended up sending him home at the final four.

Another similar situation is can be found in Season Six. In the final three, Melinda Doolittle did well with all three of her songs. Blake Lewis and Jordin Sparks turned in only one good performance each; the rest weren’t all that well received. Melinda’s fanbase – never the strongest to begin with – relaxed, Blake’s and Jordin’s voted like mad… and Melinda went out in third.

Still, overall, you have to like Adam’s chances of making it to the finale. In another season, things might have been different – but as it is, it looks good for him.

2. Kris Allen

Kris came into the competition with little in the way of hype, but he’s gradually emerged as a serious competitor. In fact, in our opinion, he’s stronger than the somewhat overrated Danny Gokey.

His biggest advantage over Gokey is actually pretty simple: he’s been singing better over the past few weeks. In addition, he’s established what kind of artist he is much more successfully than Danny has.

It doesn’t hurt, either, that in many ways he’s the exact opposite of Adam style-wise. Most of the time, Idol finalists tend to be have very different musical styles. Winning in Idol is all about building and keeping fanbases, and contestants sharing even parts of their fanbases are liable to go by the wayside until there’s no sharing.

3. Danny Gokey

In the Idol dictionary, Danny’s picture would be beside the word “coasting”. He’s been living off the early show speculation that established him as a front-runner… even if his performances of late show that he may not completely deserve to be called one.

Consider this: since his version of Jesus, Take The Wheel Danny has stumbled through the competition at best. The only reason he hasn’t gone home in the month that has passed since then is there have been others who were even worse. Ouch.

In normal circumstances,  this would be a recipe for a quick exit. For all of Danny’s problems, though, he still has less than everyone else – which is why he’s still #3 in our list (and, in effect, our power rankings).

That said, his only real hope of getting to the finale is really hoping that Kris makes a mistake. To some degree, they share some of their fanbases – and it’s unlikely that Danny’s has gained any ground in the past month. Danny and Kris will ultimately have to square off for that fanbase, and despite the (over)praise the judges have given Danny, Kris is likely to come out on top.

On the other hand, if Danny were suddenly to get a lot better he could easily steal the thunder from Kris – and with the judges (and a lot of other writers) generally overrating Danny, he could catch up in a hurry. Is it likely? Probably not, but this is Idol-land, where strange and funny things happen.

The one wildcard here is that it’s possible that Danny may have a silent, but powerful fanbase. I’ve seen it claimed that Danny has a large Christian fan base, and because that’s a group that’s traditionally not well-represented in the Idolsphere it’s hard to be completely confident about how much it’s helping Danny. Ultimately, Idol is a singing competition, and I think that whatever his off-stage pluses, it’ll come down to the fact that Danny is not singing that well.

However, I could be wrong in that, and if Idol is becoming the latest battlefield in the Culture Wars with Adam and Danny as proxies in that, well… let’s just say that development could have long-standing effects on the show itself. Few of which I’d be convinced are good.

4. Allison Iraheta

There’s no doubt about Allison’s raw talent. You can make a decent argument, in fact, that she’s the best female rocker Idol’s ever had. However, she has the same problem another vocally gifted rocker, Carly Smithson, had last year: she can’t get people to care very much.

Of late, she’s also been suffering from consistency issues as well: she’s been alternating well-received performances with not so good ones. Again, this is not a formula for building a fanbase.

Allison’s biggest problem, though, is she’s splitting fan bases: part of the rock vote is going to Adam. How much… it’s hard to say, but given Allison’s weak fanbase – she’s already been in the bottom group twice, any splitting is going to hurt her more than Adam.

On the flip side, though, even when Allison is “bad” she’s not really dreadful the way others can be when they have their off night. She’s a good enough singer to at least avoid sounding like an utter mess – which is better than some of the rest can claim.

5. Anoop Desai

Here’s a caveat to the rankings for Anoop on down. Realistically, none of the bottom three have a realistic chance of making it to the finale. It’s not impossible – stranger things have happened on the Idol stage – but I wouldn’t put any money on it, no matter what the odds are. There are really two near-independent competitions going on – one among the top four, and another for the bottom three.

Like Danny, Anoop has largely been living on pre-show hype. If anything, he’s been even more of a disappointment. His best performance came in the Top 11, and even that didn’t become a breakout moment, being buried by Matt Giraud’s So Small and Adam Lambert’s famous (or infamous) Ring of Fire.

His fanbase may have gotten him through the start, but its growing at about the same pace the US economy is right now – in short, not at all. Three straight trips to the bottom three? That doesn’t speak well of his fanbase. In another season, he’d be gone by now.

However, in all fairness, Anoop has been decent the past two weeks. That’s not saying much, but it’s out there. If Allison tanks badly enough, he could make it through to the final four, but probably not any longer. The flip side is also true, though: if Matt or Lil improve next week, with a double elimination Anoop is unlikely to survive.

6. Matt Giraud

Yes, you’ve got that right. The guy who would otherwise have gone home isn’t the cellar dweller in our rankings. Not that it matters much, since the bottom two are going home next week.

That may sound insane, but there’s method to this madness. It’s useful to remember why Lil managed to squeak ahead of Matt, in spite of being a worse singer overall in the finals. Her mini-tirade against the judges was the kind of thing that’s an adrenaline shot to a fanbase – but it’s not going to be repeated next week.

Matt has turned in somewhat better performances than Lil, but barring a major breakout performance – think So Small-caliber – it’s unlikely to send him into the top 5.

7. Lil Rounds

Lil has been nothing short of a flop since the finals began. Ever since she tackled Independence Day (thus proving she can’t sing as well as Carrie Underwood or Martina McBride,) she’s been on a steady downhill path.

While her annoyance at the judges is pretty well justified – she has been getting bad advice – the simple fact of the matter is she’s sung poorly five times in a row. Ouch. Now, as I said in Danny’s case there were singers who were even worse each night, but short of a miraculous improvement Lil should go home next week. She almost certainly will – I can’t see her delivering a performance that’ll leapfrog two people with disco night.

Overall, it’s something of a very static power ranking. Save for Ring of Fire, Adam hasn’t done anything to endanger his standing as a front runner. Other early front runners like Danny and Lil have faltered (particularly the latter). The big gainer is Kris, who has made a significant challenge to enter the top tier of contenders, but even that has run into missteps (like last week’s All She Wants To Do Is Dance).

It’s not the most interesting – nor competitive – crop of contestants I’ve seen on this show. They leave me underwhelmed – which, come to think about it, sums up the entire season to date.

One thing we’ve learned this season is to keep expectations… low. It’s more than halfway through the season, and I haven’t really been blown away by any of the performances to date. Right now, I (and, I’d guess, more than a few of you) have a tough time caring.

Adam Lambert might as well have chosen his theme song with Born To Be Wild. Translation: it was more than a bit indulgent. It was decently done, but it didn’t have the polish Mad World have. It was, if anything, his worst performance since Ring of Fire. It reminded me of a not-as-good version of Play That Funky Music – same frenetic pace, same kind of a crowd-pleasing, same vocals that were just okay. Not his best, but not his worst by a decent distance either.

Shockingly, though, Adam didn’t have the strongest Your Mileage May Vary factor last night. It was the likable – and, in the past, uncontroversial Kris Allen. Falling Slowly was not the vocal masterpiece of the night, but it didn’t have to be. Kris’s strength has never been his vocals, but his ability to connect emotionally with his songs. He did well in that category last night, but… I think he gave up too much of the vocals last night. Objectively, the vocals were fair to middling. If the vocals had been just that much better, he would have owned the night. (Not that it would have taken much.) As it is, though, he did well for the night – but he missed out on a golden opportunity.

Anoop Desai singing another power ballad is not the most original thing in the world, but at least he’s reasonably competent at it. As it tends to be, the vocals are always pretty decent… if somewhat paint-by-numbers. To his credit, the emotion was there in spots, but not consistently there. He was fine in the “glory” spots, but there was room for improvement in between. Guess which one has more time.

After those three, it goes downhill. Everyone else was, at the very least, flawed – to downright bad. Allison Iraheta’s song choice was, to be honest, a little predictable. Rock song, check. Needs a big voice, check. From a movie, check. Good choice? Uh, no. David Cook tried this last year, and even he couldn’t make a really good performance out of it. (To be fair, that wasn’t because he chose the song – it was assigned to him.) It’s a big song, and it was too big for Allison. It just didn’t work. The vocals weren’t bad, but it’d be a stretch to call it good either. So-so at best. Note to future Idol would-be rockers: avoid I Don’t Want To Miss A Thing. This is not something you want to sing on the stage.

Give Danny Gokey an A for effort on Endless Love. The vocals, though, not so much. The song, as Danny did it, needs subtlety, finesse, and Danny had… none of it. He took a bulldozer to the song. Danny worked hard this week, but maybe he should have stopped to consider if his goal was the right one. It wasn’t, not by a long shot.

Matt Giraud made a decent effort to win the Golden Trainwreck of the night. The vocals were not impressive – it was kind of dull and boring all night long. More than that, though, if you’re going to pick a song like Have You Ever Really Loved a Woman, you need to connect with the emotions of the song. Matt didn’t come close to that at all.

The Golden Trainwreck, however, goes to Lil Rounds. For a singer whose supposed specialty is in the power runs, glory notes, etcetera that Idol loves to drop on its R&B contestants, she was surprisingly mediocre. It was unbelievably dull. By itself, though, that would not have enough to get her the Golden Trainwreck – but teeing off on Simon did. “Putting her own bit in it”? So is her specialty putting people to sleep? Foot, meet mouth. That was not her finest moment on the stage.

Overall, though, the results were pretty dismal. After this week, there are only five weeks left. Yet the overall caliber of the performances was something I’d expect in February or March, when the season was starting – not in mid-April, when the season is getting “down to the wire”.

Not thinking things through: Lately it seems to be Amateur Night is reigning over at 19E – and rarely was this more obvious than last night.

Everyone knew that adding Kara to the judging panel would cause timing issues. Either more time would have to be spent on the judges, or Paula, Randy, and Simon would all have to learn to talk less – an unlikely proposition. Either way, the show’s producers and director would have to compensate.

However, it took widespread outrage after Adam Lambert’s Mad World was cut off after Idol ran long last week before the Idol PTB decided to act. And their response? Why, let’s make our judges do even less work! Did anyone really like the alternating-judges act? As it is, it sounds like a last-minute kludge that was cooked up at the last minute. Any one who’s watched the show closely at all knew what would happen, but apparently the Well-Paid Professionals at 19E didn’t figured that out. American Idol is in the best of hands.

Of course, the biggest Amateurism of the night was picking Quentin Tarantino to mentor. I don’t doubt that he’s a colorful guy, and he understands the dramatic impact of music, but… he knows absolutely nothing about producing music. That, fundamentally, is the role of the mentor. It’s no coincidence that the better mentors tend to be those that are involved in music production (Barry Manilow, David Foster) or those who have been in the industry long enough to learn at least some material by osmosis.

Quentin Tarantino was neither. For all his enthusiasm, it was clear that there wasn’t much “operational”, detailed advise he could offer. He’s a movie director, not a music producer. Step aside, Gwen Stefani – there is a new “champion” for the worst Idol mentor ever. This was something that many, many people could have guessed – but, apparently, 19E missed the boat on this again. Is anyone with a brain cell running things over there?

A wide-open field: With so many bad performances, it’s hard to really call anyone perfectly safe. Adam is almost certainly safe, but Danny was so disappointing him showing up in the bottom three would not be a shock.

The likeliest boot candidates here are Matt Giraud and Lil Rounds. For both of them, it comes down to fanbase strength. They were both sufficiently bad that casual voters aren’t going to give either of them any meaningful boost in the votes. It ultimately comes down whose fans hit the phones harder last night.

Lil’s tirade against the judges will certainly hurt her in the long term (if she lasts that long), but this week it probably spurred on her (limited) fan base to vote like mad. Given how week Matt was, the needed boost to escape survival isn’t that large. That could very well have put Lil over the edge to survive.

So…

The Idol Guy pick: Matt Giraud to go home.