After last week’s results, expectations coming into this week were low. However… it’s almost like our embattled Top 12 took all those brickbats and used it as motivation. The end result? The best episode of the season. A trainwreck-free one, to boot. (Not that everyone was good, mind, just that the bad ones escaped trainwreck territory.)

Let’s do worst to best this time around. Worst was Tim Urban. By Tim’s (low) standards, the vocals were actually not a disaster. The arrangement, however…. who knew it was even possible to put a reggae twist on the Stones? In short: what were they thinking? And “not a disaster” doesn’t mean it wasn’t bad. It was. It was just more of a headscratcher than an utter disaster. Oh, and has anyone in the Idol finals had less range than Tim? You could almost count the number of notes the range had on one hand.

Andrew Garcia tried to “rock out” with Gimme Shelter. Unfortunately, Andrew really doesn’t have the vocal punch to pull that style off. He tried hard – if anything, too hard, with the result that his vocals became something of a mess. It was a respectable effort, but not much else.

Lacey Brown didn’t have a good day either. Honestly, though, there wasn’t much she could do. That quirky style and unique voice was a spectacularly poor fit for the Rolling Stones. A more experienced singer would have been able to rearrange something to fit their strengths, but Lacey doesn’t really have the background to pull that off. It was so-so, really, but Lacey was essentially screwed from the start.

Give Katie Stevens points for sucking up to Simon. Singing a song covered by Susan Boyle? Not a coincidence. Whether it was her or someone else… it’s hard to say. As for the performance… it wasn’t awful, but it wasn’t good either. It was too much of a beauty pageant performance – the lighting, the looks, the slow tempo, the glory notes – and honestly, that’s not what I expect from an Idol finalist.

With all the medical issues that Paige Miles had to deal with this week, she can be excused for not having much energy to attack the song. Overall, though… it was a decent effort, but somewhat forgettable and average.

Aaron Kelly turned in a performance only a tweener could love. On its own merits, though, it was somewhat better than Paige – Aaron did work within his vocal limits. Unfortunately, though, those are some pretty strong limits.

We learned a few things about Michael Lynche. Even with a lousy arrangement and so-so vocals… Big Mike has enough charisma and moves to be at least decent. Unfortunately, that’s about as far as I can go in praising his act. This is going to sound like a contradiction, but truth be told it was a well-sung mess. This was a huge wasted opportunity. Yes, the theme didn’t exactly suit Big Mike, but surely there was something better, right?

Casey James had one of those good, but unremarkable performances. I don’t know how faithful his version of It’s All Over Now was to the original, but Casey’s version fit his usual style well enough. However, it didn’t feel particularly special. It was just there, and Casey isn’t quite the vocalist that a Siobhan or Crystal is. Some contestants whose “average” performances are well above average; Casey isn’t in that league. (As for Lee DeWyze? For all intents and purposes, everything we said about Casey applies to him too. Very, very, safe performance. Oh, and Kara, not being pitchy is something praiseworthy for a finalist? Really? Talk about grading on the curve.)

By her lofty standards, Crystal Bowersox had something of an off night. It wasn’t a bad performance, not by any means. The song choice was good, the vocals were there… there was just that missing spark that turns a good performance into a great one. It was all quite well executed, but there wasn’t that moment that could make it really exceptional.

Didi Benami got off to a very good start – right up with what Crystal and Siobhan can produce. Unfortunately, she stumbled vocally somewhere in the middle and didn’t really fully regain her footing. Still, even that was only able to knock what should have been an excellent, five-star performance into a merely very good one. It’s the best we’ve seen from Didi so far.

Best of the night: Siobhan Magnus. Boy, she just doesn’t know the meaning of “safe”, does she? I agree with Kara – this version of Paint It, Black reminded me of something Adam Lambert would do in that it was as much a theatrical performance as much as a song. I didn’t quite love the vocals as much as everyone else – that very, very, very long glory note sounded shrieky at the very end – but for the night you couldn’t top the overall impact. You couldn’t. If I were in Siobhan’s place, though, I’d be very careful about embracing the Lambert “strategy” too much. After all, Adam won last year, right? Oh, wait, he didn’t…

TIG Picks: Calling boots for this year really depends on if you buy that last week was some sort of perfect storm of circumstances that don’t say anything about the rest of the season, or if it reflects longer-term trends about the voting this year.

Happily, though, there’s one person that fits in both categories. Our pick to go is Lacey Brown. She didn’t really sing all that well, but she did just enough to perhaps not be perceived as in the cellar. The Sesame Street Effect might be in play here. If you believe that the fanbases have hardened this early, then you’d put Lacey going home ahead of power-voter favorites like Tim Urban, Katie Stevens, or Andrew Garcia. (If voters have any sense, though, at least one of those three should be in the bottom group as well.)

Let’s face it: Lacey got here because she did surprisingly well on The Story last week. Without something like that in the bag… it’s harder to think she’s safe.

TIG pick: Lacey Brown to go home.

Oh boy. To say the Idolsphere is not too happy with the results is an understatement. I have yet to find a single person who thinks the results made any sense. It’s understandable – with the exception of Todrick, I don’t think any of the boots were justifiable on any level. Explainable, maybe, but this was not the way things should have gone.

Our theory as to why this is the case? Idol voters tend to come in two flavors. Power voters tend to be heavily committed to either one contestant or one genre; these are the voters who hit the phones hard and wear out their thumbs texting in votes.

On the flip side, you have casual voters. These are the types who’ll throw in a relatively small number of votes each night, largely based on merit week-to-week. While not nearly as powerful on an individual basis as power voters, there tend to be a lot more of them. Idol results can be determined by the balance of casual-versus-power voters – something that was seen to good effect last year.

Let’s look at how had the four have performed since the top 24. This isn’t based on what we thought, but on the more-or-less consensus from the Idolsphere.

• Katelyn Epperly – okay in the top 24, good in the top 20, not-so-good in the top 16
• Lilly Scott – okay-to-good in the top 24, good in the top 20, okay in the top 16
• Todrick Hall – awful in the top 24 and top 20, okay in the top 16
• Alex Lambert – awful in the top 24, good in the top 20, okay this week

Two things stand out: none of this foursome had been really good this week. At best, they were okay, but (Todrick excepted) they’d all done better. There’s also some consistency issues in this group – particularly with Alex and Katelyn.

In normal circumstances, however, there should have been enough voters – both casual and power ones – to keep them in. What happened?

Casual voters first. I suspect that one of two things happened: either they’re not voting in large numbers so far, or the casual votes are going towards the elite contestants (Big Mike, Siobhan, Mamasox) overwhelmingly. (Note that it’s possible for both to be true.) Either way, that was a problem for the rest of the field. Without casual votes to keep them in, it would then be down to their ability to attract power voters.

However, the four contestants had issues there as well. First off was consistency: the closest to “consistent” was Lilly, but she misfired rather badly this week. Even when they were good, it’s debatable whether they really got people to support them. Lilly and Katelyn may have been a touch too… quirky to win over power voters in meaningful numbers.

There’s a flip side to this, though, and it’s as much a guess as anything else. What if the power voters have already made up their minds? It’s almost like the fanbases are already solid – no one (except, probably, the elite contestants) have had any luck in that department. How else can you explain the fact that despite the fact they’ve, well, not done very well, the pre-semis fanbases of Katie, Andrew, and Tim are all intact? I’ve never been a fan of the “blame the tweens” movements that spread every time a bad Idol boot happens, but this may be one time that does apply.

I can hear the complaints now, though. But Leo, that explains how the four who left got less votes but who’s voting for, say, Paige? Or Aaron? Or Andrew? Or Katie?

Andrew and Katie fall under the “fanbases are already solid” rule. They had good support before the semis began, and don’t seem to have lost that much so far.

Paige and Aaron both got lucky in one significant way. Neither was splitting votes with anyone else. Paige was the last big-voiced, glory-note-loving “diva” singer left. Similarly, Aaron was the last too-talented-for-his-age-and-innocent-looking teen, along the lines of a David Archuleta. (By contrast, Lilly was splitting votes with Didi, Lacey, and maybe a little with both Katelyn and Crystal. There are a lot of quirky girls in the field this year.) It’s hard to know just how many votes those factors alone bring in, but it’s clear: that was enough. Particularly if the vote totals are as skewed towards the elite contestants as I think they are this year.

Of course, this is all essentially all informed speculation. Or, as someone else would call it, guessing. Without knowing the exact vote totals, there’s no way to prove whether I’m right, or just trying to find reason in irrational Idol voting patterns. Here’s one thing to keep in mind, though: if I’m right, expect the voting patterns until around the top… four or six to be very wild.

Whatever the case, everyone should buckle in. It looks like this season is going to be an interesting one. Whether for its the right or wrong reasons remains to be seen.

This is my seventh season of watching Idol, and my fourth year writing about it. Rarely has there been an episode that left me scratching as much as the guys did this week. One guy stood out, but the rest… it’s hard to describe. It was a confusing mix of the good points and the bad, and usually that was just in each performance.

Lee DeWyze did not exactly endear himself to us with his song choice. Fireflies? Really? (I admit to some bias: hearing that song makes me want to take a page out of the Elvis playbook and start shooting wherever Fireflies came from.) He may have managed to improve the original, but honestly that’s not saying much. The huskiness did add some quality, but the vocals weren’t all that great. Decent vocals, very subpar song choice (although at least it was contemporary). Middling performance.

On the vocals alone, Alex Lambert actually did quite well. The trouble is, though, he did a song which needs subtlety and artistry not just in the way its sung, but in how the emotions come across. And in that department, Alex did relatively poorly. The notes were all in the right places, but it just never felt right. It was as if Alex was reading the music off a teleprompter. (And thank you, Simon, for making all of us reach for the bleach. Of all the mental images one can imagine…)

In some ways, the same could be said about Tim Urban. It wasn’t the full-on disconnect that Alex showed, but Jason Castro already nailed this song two years ago. It’s not vocally demanding; it’s a test for how well you can connect with audiences. I’d give Tim a barely passing grade in that area. It wasn’t a disaster, which for him is an improvement. So-so at best.

It’s looking like we Idol viewers can’t have a performance night without at least one boneheaded song choice. Andrew Garcia could have used a genie to wish his performance away. It wasn’t well sung, didn’t show any of his strengths, and was out and out forgettable. One word – terrible.

The best you can say about Casey James was his performance had no low points. The worst you can say is it had no high points either. Competently sung, but the song itself was boring, and the way it was performed was completely uninteresting as well. Pretty close to terrible and unwatchable, but not quite there.

The way Aaron Kelly did I’m Already There, it turned an emotional song into a cheesefest worthy of an Idol finale. He reminded us a little of David Archuleta from two years ago – except he didn’t have anywhere near Archie’s vocal ability. In a local talent show with an audience in the dozens (or hundreds, at best), it would have been good. On the Idol stage with millions of viewers? Not. A. Chance.

Todrick Hall was the opposite of Alex Lambert. His version of Somebody To Love was vocally not really all that great, still, but the performance itself made up for it. He’s got good confidence, command of the stage, charisma… but vocally there are better singers in the mix. A good performance, but with one heck of a large asterisk on it.

And then there was one. Michael Lynche completely, and thoroughly, dominated the night. The vocals were great. He showed excellent command of both the stage and the audience. He connected with his song; it felt completely authentic. Yes, his “acting” was somewhat over the top. But it worked, because it really came across like he was genuinely feeling the emotions of his song. I wouldn’t say that it’s the best performance of the season to date, as Simon did. It is, however, the best of the guys to date. Well done.

Here’s how we rank the guys:

1. Michael Lynche
2. Alex Lambert
3. Casey James
4. Tim Urban
5. Todrick Hall
6. Lee DeWyze
7. Andrew Garcia
8. Aaron Kelly

Keep in mind, though: Big Mike is way ahead of this field. 2-6 are sort of bunched together. There’s a big gap to the Garcia and Kelly Trainwreck Special, but those two are equally dismal.

More chaos soon to erupt: Common consensus in the Idolsphere is that the girls are better than the guys. Thats true, but that doesn’t make calling the boots this time around any easier.

There are some similarities, however. There’s one easy boot in the guys – Aaron Kelly. Like Paige Miles, he may be vocally talented but hasn’t really had any good highlights. Idol audiences are not really hankering for another young guy singer along the lines of David Archuleta. And Aaron isn’t nearly the singer Archie was when he was in his zone. It’s hard to see him lasting past this week.

The other boot, though… it’s harder to say. It’s tempting to do a complete parallel with Katie Stevens and say Andrew Garcia is leaving, but there are some differences. Andrew’s first performance was reasonably well-received. The competition is weaker than the girls, so Andrew has something of a margin for error – something Katie doesn’t enjoy on the other side of the fence. So he should be safe.

So if it’s no Andrew, then who’s vulnerable? I’d say it comes down to either Todrick or Tim. As we all learned last year, the over-the-top theatrics are a double-edged sword. It can drive off as many people as it can attract to your cause. So even if Todrick did well this week, I’m not convinced it’ll actually help him get new voters. He may have already done too much damage with his previous efforts, and what he did this week may not have helped him as much as he thinks.

As for Tim…. the fanbase he has is remarkable. He’s been awful the past two weeks, and that fanbase kept him in. Logically, based on past performances, it shouldn’t be there, but it is. With that in mind, his performance this week will mean that he should be able to avoid the boot. Which means….

TIG pick: Todrick Hall and Aaron Kelly to leave.

There is – and isn’t – a pecking order for the girls this year. There are two – Crystal and Siobhan – are pretty good. The rest of the field, though… it’s quite up for grabs. Some who were good one week can stink the next – and vice versa. That was clear from this week’s episode.

Has there ever been a Chosen One that faster and harder than Katie Stevens? It’s hard to imagine, really. Breakaway felt like an amateurish song right out from a karaoke joint. It wasn’t even all that well sung. Granted, the Idol audience will always judge contestants who sing Kelly Clarkson songs harshly, but this was mediocre at best, and awful at worst.

Siobhan Magnus just doesn’t know how to pick safe songs, does she? Just like last week, this was a big gamble that worked, but only just. I’m not sure House of the Rising Sun lends itself well to being cut as drastically as Idol songs are. (After all, the Santa Esmeralda version on the Kill Bill Vol. 1 soundtrack weighs in at over 10 minutes long.) (See ETA at the end.) Maybe because of that, it lacked the special flavor that makes a good song into a truly great one. Give Siobhan all the credit in the world though: she’s such a good singer and performer that even with suboptimal song choices, she can still sing the pants off just about everyone in this field.

Our reaction to Lacey Brown – where on earth did THAT come from? If she’d pulled off something that good earlier in the season, maybe the entire Idolsphere would have given her a little more credit. The song choice was spot-on, the performance felt quite natural… and the vocals weren’t the problem they’ve been in other weeks. Very… interesting performance from Lacey right there.

Katelyn Epperly impressed us last week. This week… no. Not a chance. It wasn’t poorly sung, but it was dull. The range of the song was a little limited, and while Katelyn has good vocals because of that limited range she didn’t really get to show it off. It was just there, and on the other side of things Katelyn is only a so-so performer. Accordingly, it was thoroughly so-so.

Didi Benami went back to what works well: subtlety and control. It worked absolutely beautifully for her. Given the right material, Didi can do remarkably well. The husky accent she has when singing makes her stand out – the comparisons to Dolores O’Riordan are interesting, and there’s definitely basis for that. Just for that… I’d like to see her go far.

It wouldn’t be a semifinal episode without a trainwreck. Paige Miles turned in one. The vocals were all over the place, and even if Paige had sung it well it was still an awful song choice. Terrible all around.

At least Crystal Bowersox was able to wash away memories of that performance with another top-notch performance. The combination of confidence, artistic self-awareness, and vocal ability that Crystal has is… scary. The fact that she’s doing it this early in the season is even worse. Very few people start off this well; the last example I’d cite would be David Cook. Before that, I’d cite Melinda Doolittle. That is some excellent company to be in.

Maybe if Lilly Scott had sung earlier in the night it would have sounded better. Unfortunately, others had done the slow, folksy, quirky sound better earlier in the night. It wasn’t bad, mind you, and the song did suit her quite well. It’s just that it was a safe pick – too safe, in our opinion – and was no more than okay. Others had stepped up to the game and Lilly did not come out on top.

Here’s how we rank the girls:

1. Crystal Bowersox
2. Didi Benami
3. Siobhan Magnus
4. Lacey Brown
5. Lilly Scott
6. Katelyn Epperly
7. Katie Stevens
8. Paige Miles

It could get ugly: Tempting as it is, you can’t call the next boots just based on the last performance. Idol voters do recognize that there is a fairly large difference between making the top 12 and coming up even one episode short. Overall performance since the season began will be more important than usual this week.

The easy boot to call: Paige Miles. She is just not singing well enough. Everyone else (save Katie) has had their moments to shine, and Paige hasn’t. Period. Throw in her lack of pre-semis publicity and you can see that Paige had very little room to make mistakes even before this week. She had to nail her song out of the park to have a chance of succeeding. Instead, she struck out.

The other girl to go home, though…. that’s harder to call. Before this week, Didi and Lacey would have been fighting for this spot, but they both did quite well this time around. Is it enough to make audiences forget the previous two weeks?

What about the pair who sort of disappointed people this week – Lilly Scott and Katelyn Epperly? In theory, they should have done well enough to qualify for the finals, but given so-so performances it’s not out of the question for someone to overtake them.

Katie also has to be figured into the mix. The hype machine that built her up before a single note was sung live before America is running on fumes now, but it would be unwise to totally discount it. Stranger things have happened.

To us, the weakest in this group appear to be Katelyn and Katie. Katie has probably lost a good-sized chunk of fans since the season began; I’m not sure the kinds of songs Katelyn did before would really win over Idol voters. Neither helped their cause today either. (Some would ask: why not Lacey Brown? My reasoning is this: she has some sort of fanbase which was enough to protect her from two bad weeks. This week’s performance is sure to drive them to overdrive. It should do to keep her safe.)

It’s a coinflip between the two, but I’ll call it against Katie. Why? If Katie had not had favorite status entering into the semis, this wouldn’t be close. Katelyn has sung better every week so far. Katie has yet to deliver one really good song. Three weeks is enough for the pre-show hype to get out of the way and reality to set in. Katie Stevens is a decent semifinalist, but finals material? I don’t buy it. I said back in the top 24 that I would not be surprised if one of the pre-show favorites (Andrew Garcia and Katie) would not make it. That prediction is looking very good.

TIG picks to go home: Paige Miles and Katie Stevens to go home.

ETA: Thanks to Mary for pointing out a brainfart on my part: House of the Rising Sun was not on the Kill Bill soundtrack. Still, the point holds: the Santa Esmeralda version of HotRS is even longer, and I still don’t think it lends itself to easy chopping.)