To say that the Idolsphere is in shock over Siobhan’s exit would be… an understatement. Certainly, nothing else like it has been seen this season.

And yet… well, I’m not 100% surprised. I had Siobhan in the bottom two, after all. I suspected that her fanbase was weak, but even I didn’t think it was quite that weak.

First, we have to answer one question: was Siobhan really as strong as people thought she was? Conventional wisdom has it that she was a strong contestant who could go far.

Me… I’m not so sure. I firmly believe that to a large degree, the Idolsphere – both Big Media and New Media alike – over-ranked Siobhan. We all saw the amazing voice, the ability to hold a high note. We made the comparison to Adam Lambert and thought that, like Adam, Siobhan could get away with having very divided opinions.

The trouble is, simply, that Siobhan wasn’t as good as everyone thought. In hindsight, the good analogue to Siobhan wasn’t Adam, but Carly Smithson. Both girls had immensely powerful vocals, but sometimes were lost without the glory notes. They were both early frontrunners, but stumbled later on.

Now, as my friends at What Not to Sing pointed out, this was the first time that someone in the pimp spot went home in a single-song, single-boot week. Since the Idol PTB never give the pimp spot to a weak contestant, that must mean that she was a strong contestant who went home too early, right?

Not necessarily. Keep in mind that the Idol PTB are just as capable of misreading the American public. It’s much more likely that the producers misread the situation as badly as everyone else. They may have believed their own hype and thought Siobhan was safe until, say, top four.

In any event, this isn’t really a big shocker. It’s at best a mild surprise – Big Mike’s fanbase is stronger than I thought, but I admit that his save earlier in the season played a role in that line of thought. This is nothing more than a case of a former frontrunner with a big voice, who hasn’t developed her repertoire outside of that big voice, stumbling when the weaker finalists have been removed.

Not A Surprise, Part 2: Similarly, Casey James ending up in the bottom two shouldn’t be a surprise. He’s the only contestant splitting votes with anyone else – Crystal’s frontrunner status protects her that way, and Big Mike and Aaron are both alone in their genres. On the other hand, Casey and Lee share a lot of similarities, so I suspect there’s a lot of vote-splitting going on here.

For Casey to make the finale, he has to hope that Lee has a major off-day and he can capitalize. In a Lee-Casey-Crystal fight, it’s hard to see how Casey could come out ahead.

A little difference in opinion among the Idol punditocracy is normal. By all accounts, though, the differences among the pundits for Shania week were… extreme. For us, it was one 0f the better (if not the best) weeks of the season so far, but that’s to be expected given how far we are in the season. This is the top six.

I expect, by this time in the show, at least competence. If the top six is singing as poorly as the top twelve, then we’d have a real problem. However, the past six weeks while, at times, brutally awful, has done its job. The truly undeserving talent has been thrown out, and we’ve got a top six. It’s not the best Idol top six, but it’s a servicable one.

Best of the night: Casey James. The song and arrangement suited him well. He sang it quite well (with one caveat: it wasn’t exactly the hardest song to sing.) He sang it with emotion. He ticked off just about every checkbox in the “things to do to get a good rating” list. He deserves the top spot. Overall, it’s right on the border of good versus great.

Next up: Aaron Kelly. He’s been compared to David Archuleta before, and he shares Archie’s strengths: he can do the emotional, slow ballads pretty damn well. Superb song choice, his singing was as good as anyone else’s… very, very close to Casey for the night, as a matter of fact.

For the first time in a long time, Michael Lynche lived up to what his potential. He sang his song well. He told the story of the song. He played up to the audience. The only reason I have him third is that I think of the “good” performances of the night, he’s the one with the least crossover appeal. He’ll win over R&B listeners, but I doubt he’ll appeal much to other genre voters.

By her standards, Crystal Bowersox wasn’t particularly good. It was a little pedestrian, to be honest. The usual emotion and honesty we’ve come to expect from Mamasox was missing. She sort of mailed it in. Now, on the flip side, it was decently sung and pleasant to listen to. It just didn’t feel special or interesting.

Siobhan Magnus… I honestly don’t know what to think of this. The first part of the song was… surprisingly mediocre, really. The song calls for a lot of energy, but Siobhan’s performing had little of that. When we got to the glory notes, I’m of two minds. I find her ability to pull off notes with that much power absolutely amazing. It’s a rare talent. But by itself it’s not singing. There is a lot more to singing than just hitting one powerful note for a very long time. I don’t know how Siobhan has become this one-dimensional glory-note-or-bust singer. What I do know is that I do not like it.

Worst of the night, by a fairly good distance: Lee DeWyze. I didn’t get this song choice. The singing was, well, decent, but unexceptional, and overall it was just dull. He’s capable of a whole lot better.

Broken Base: With opinions all over the place for this episode, it comes down fundamentally to a battle of fanbase strength. Which means, that for most of the six contestants, what they did on Tuesday night won’t matter.

Note that I said most. The one exception: Aaron Kelly. In between singing well and picking up some youth votes from former Tim Urban voters, he probably did enough to save himself. He was up against the wall and rose to the pressure. Well done, Aaron.

So who ends up going home? Our money is on Big Mike. We know his fanbase strength is already suspect due to the save. The fans of the frontrunners who struggled (Crystal and Lee) will vote like mad. The fans of those who did very well (Aaron and Casey) will vote like mad. Siobhan, well, her fans will vote like mad too. Any Man Of Mine – and the accompanying glory notes – was really something that her fanbase would eat right up.

Once we’d gotten past the “removing the driftwood” phase of the finals, really, Big Mike was in trouble. He needed a good performance that could also win over people not inclined to like his style of music. I don’t think Mike did enough.

Don’t be surprised to see Siobhan in the bottom two, though. She’s done a lot of damage to her former front-runner status with performances that have garnered mixed reviews, at best. She’s also the most divisive, love-her-or-hate-her contestant since… Adam Lambert. You can get away with that if your fans are as fanatical (and there are enough of them) as Adam’s was. Siobhan isn’t there.

TIG pick: Michael Lynche to go home.

Officially, American Idol isn’t a scripted show. Idol Gives Back, however, might as well be as carefully choreographed and scripted as any sitcom. The guest stars, the contestants in white, the tragic videos… it’s the same script every year.

I’ve never been a huge fan of the whole IGB concept, but I’ve said enough on that so I won’t repeat myself. So, let’s instead look at what the remaining top six need to do to get into the finale.

Note that I said “get into the finale”, not win. Let’s be brutally honest. Crystal is going to be the hardest frontrunner to beat in Idol history. Harder than Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood, or even (more recently) David Cook.

A lot of that is due to being Crystal a naturally gifted singer who’d do well in any season, but her ability to curbstomp everyone else into submission is partially due to the weakness of the rest of the field. It’s hard to see a scenario where anyone else could win.

The historians would object: what about Melinda Doolittle? Wasn’t she supposed to win Season Six too? Well, there’s one key difference. Melinda was against at least some opponents who could put up a challenge. This year? It’s like sending a World Series-contending team against a marginal AAA-level minor league team. Crystal is pretty good, but it’s not like her competition is that hard either.

With that in mind…

1. Crystal Bowersox

The main problem Crystal has to face is complacency – i.e., avoid a Melinda Doolittle. It’s something that’s really out of her hands – she can only sing well every night and give her fans a reason to vote for her. She can’t wring necks through the screen and get people to pick up the phone.

One advantage Crystal does have over Melinda is she’s doesn’t have the old-fashioned image (so far as she had one). Crystal is artistically, firmly a creature of the New Idol era. She has a firm idea of what kind of artist she is, and picks songs/rearranges them to suit that. The formula for her is essentially “keep doing what you’re doing.”

2. Lee DeWyze

Lee is probably the best-positioned of the rest of the pack to reach the finale with Crystal. And lose. To be fair, he is doing some things right: he’s picking the right songs, and singing them, well, at least competently.

What Lee needs is simple: emotion. He sings his songs well enough, but you don’t get the conviction, the emotion that you get from Crystal, or other frontrunners in the past. His consistency is actually pretty good.

The trouble is, fundamentally, Lee is a midcard performer that’ll be pushed into the finale because there’s no one else. He’s a slightly stronger mid-card performer than usual, but let’s not kid ourselves: he’s not Elliott Yamin or Allison Iraheta. He needs to prove he’s a legitimate contender to even threaten Crystal: he needs to improve week to week, and be consistent doing so.

3. Siobhan Magnus

Every season has a frontrunner who loses their way. Siobhan is it this year.

Her problem is two fold: bad song choices leading to bad singing. The fundamental diagnosis is actually fairly common to power singers like Siobhan: they have a powerful voice, rely on it too much, start screaming, and lose the plot.

The solution for Siobhan is actually fairly simple: stop oversinging and screaming. Figure out just what she wants to sing, and concentrate on that. Stop trying to be “different” for the heck of it; she seems to be falling prey to a little of that. (Certainly, her outfits have been on the kooky side of… unique.)

4. Casey James

Lee and Casey are something of twins. Their issue is the same: neither is singing particularly emotionally. Unfortunately, Casey has a separate issue: he’s not singing particularly well, either.

Casey has a lot of work to do. First, he really needs to differentiate himself from the pack. He can do that, by for one, singing well. Casey has not really had a truly standout performance recently. He’s just there: very mediocre and average.

The other issue is similar to Lee: sing with emotion. He’s shown signs of it, but he’s not doing it consistently enough to matter.

5. Michael Lynche

Big Mike has the biggest personality out of all the contestants left. The trouble is… he can’t sing consistently. He’ll do well one week, screw up the next… that is not a formula for ending up in the finale.

Now, Big Mike actually has something of an advantage over the likes of Casey and Lee – if he can sing a song well, he can express emotions pretty well. Unfortunately, he’s been digging a hole for himself of late. It might be too late.

6. Aaron Kelly

Aaron’s not going to make it to the finale, period. He is just too raw, inexperienced, and not that good. At this stage in the competition, he’s primarily a “spoiler” for the likes of Casey and Big Mike.

Idol Gives Back night is turning into something of a trap night. Two years ago inspirational songs night wasn’t really anything to write home about. I called it “lifeless.” This year’s version? Even worse. Save for three performances, really, it was a disaster.

Let’s say it: Crystal Bowersox is thoroughly outclassing everyone else this season. She is dominating an Idol season in a way no other contestant has. A lot of that is due to the weak field, but I dare say she’d be in the top two of any season you put her in. My main complaint about Crystal to date has been she hasn’t had her one, defining, moment. We can all strike that. This was the best vocal I’ve seen from anyone all season long. Good song choice, brilliant arrangement, and you don’t get more “real”, artistically. She could not have done that any better.

A long way down the rankings, but second best, is Lee DeWyze. To be fair, this was an inspired song choice. It suited his voice, and the arrangement played to Lee’s strengths. I’m not going to quibble with the singing. But as performance… no. Lee just can’t express emotions with his face. He’s actually fine when he’s singing, but when he’s not – like the gaps between verses – it goes away. The authenticity and emotion you get with a Crystal is just not there with Lee.

I suggested When You Believe as a possible song choice for Syesha Mercado two years ago. How did Siobhan Magnus do? It was a mixed bag. The arrangement was awful, first of all: the original has an epic, larger-than-life feel. This arrangement took that all away. The start was a little rough, but when Siobhan got into it… the singing was pretty good. It was something of a salvage job – Siobhan did the best she could, but that arrangement was just too big a handicap. There’s a lot of could-have-been here, but overall? Decent, but nothing more.

The rest of the night… was sort of ugly. Michael Lynche sang the best of the rest… it’s just that his song choice was awful. I keep saying that singing a song is like telling a story. This song felt like it was random words attached to a tune. Like Siobhan, this was a salvage job, and Big Mike’s voice was okay, but the reaction to it was essentially: what on earth was that?

This is becoming something of a refrain for Casey James: he sings a song decently, but is utterly uninteresting, dull, and boring. That’s exactly what he did. The vocals were okay, but there was no excitement. This might have been acceptable in the group rounds. But in the Top 7? Really?

One of the constant warnings on Idol is “don’t sing a song that’s too big for your voice!” Well, Aaron Kelly broke that. Big time. He just doesn’t have the gravitas – for lack of a better word – to pull that song off. This was the singing equivalent of a six-year-old girl playing dress-up.

And Tim Urban… ay. The only good thing I can say about it: it wasn’t his worst performance. Was it any good? No. Personally, I’d like to have my Top 7 contestants to have a range that’s not measured in single-digit notes.

The comparison ends: Recently, Tim Urban has been compared by some Idol analysts to Sanjaya Malakar. That’s unfair. Tim is awful, but the special trainwreck factor that Sanjaya had is something Tim doesn’t. (To be specific, it was the sinking feeling whenever Sanjaya sang that had the audience reeling and thinking, “he did what?”)

There is one valid comparison, though. Sixth or seventh is when the Sanjaya-type contestants – those who stay far beyond the merits of their vocals deserve – go. It used to be sixth (notable sixth-placers: Carmen Rasmusen, John Stevens, and Kellie Pickler), but of late it’s drifted down (notable seventh-placers: Ace Young, Sanjaya Malakar, and Kristy Lee Cook).

Tim Urban is, by far, the worst contestant left in this group. History suggests it will be his time to go. To be fair, this isn’t the instant call it might otherwise be: Aaron Kelly has been mediocre to date as well. However you call it, though, he hasn’t been as awful as Tim has.

TIG pick: Tim Urban to go home.