What was that sound we heard when Haley was announced safe yesterday? It was the sound not only of Randy’s and J-Lo’s heads exploding, but the sound of the Idol bus running into the buzzsaw that was the angry – and motivated – fanbase of one Haley Reinhart.

We’ve had occasions when busing a contestant failed. Simon’s attempt to bus David Cook at the finale resulted in the former eating crow. Kris Allen got the bus treatment all season long, and he won. And yet… those didn’t have that one shining, singular moment where the judges were thinking, “oh, crap.” Haley Reinhart fans, remember this moment?

One word: priceless. Randy looked like somebody had stolen his trademark punchlines. Jennifer Lopez could have won a Razzie for Worst Faked Smile. Schadenfreude doesn’t get any better than this.

Take nothing away from James. I think this final four was, as a group, the most interesting in Idol history. Cutting someone was always going to be hard. You had four legitimately strong competitors, each with a compelling storyline, and a good variety in genres. Yes, Lauren and Scotty are both country, but I think that fact makes their differences more vivid: Scotty is a very old-fashioned throwback country guy, Lauren has a more modern feel that could easily cross over. This wasn’t like, say, Season 8, where you had someone who was awful still hanging around.

The top three week has brought out a lot of good performances. Bo Bice with In a Dream. Katharine McPhee with Over the Rainbow. David Cook with The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face. Kris Allen with Heartless. This is where they separate legitimate finalists from the pretenders.

I like Haley’s chances to get to the finale. The judges are going to try – again – to bus Haley. Of that, I have no doubt whatsoever. The judge’s song choice is going to be exceptionally silly. Don’t be surprised if J-Lo gives the pick and Randy slams it as “not a good choice”, or vice versa. It would be ridiculously blatant, but this group doesn’t do subtle. Maybe, if they’re exceptionally unsubtle, they’ll give her one of J-Lo’s songs! Steven will, almost certainly, end up giving Lauren’s pick. So long as Haley does her part and sings well, the busing won’t work. Her fans are too alert – anger over her busing has not, and will not, go away.

Where Jimmy Iovine will go is tough to say… but he did get You and I cleared for Haley. I doubt he’d do that for somebody he didn’t like on some level. I feel reasonably secure that the bus will not come from Jimmy’s corner. As for contestant’s pick, Haley will go for another high-risk/high-reward song, Scotty will go safe with another midtempo country song, and Lauren… who knows.

Traditionally, the Idol top three consists of a favored duel with a third would-be interloper. This year is no different. I doubt there’ll be a final with two country singers. The Idol viewing and voting audience is just too diverse for a single genre to dominate like that. Lauren is the decided underdog here, but who knows. Upsets can happen.

If Reinhart-McCreery happens, I have one request for the producers. Or, failing that, the wider Idolsphere. Give us an epic promo to lead off the show. I’m not talking about the lame and cheesy ones we’ve seen before. They’ve even used the “boxing” analogy before, with poor results. What I want is the mother of all epic promo videos. Find the guys who make promo videos for Fox Sports. Turn them loose.  I would dearly, dearly, love to see what an epic-with-a-capital-E promo video for Idol would look like.

Who knew that you could bring Lady Gaga onto Idol and it would basically be forgotten? We ended up with an episode that caused the phrase “thrown under the bus” to fly around the Idolsphere and Twitter with such frequency, we ended up with a gigantic pileup. And rightfully so. It’s one thing to bus someone; sad as it is that’s part of the Idol experience. To do so so obviously and with so ineptly, well… no wonder people are unhappy.

I can’t say I was particularly thrilled by any of the “inspirational” songs. It produces trite song choices that usually backfire; and with one notable exception that was what happened here.

The best of the first round was Lauren. It was one of Lauren’s best performances this season. It was well sung, and it suited her quite well. Even then, however, it was just good. This is the top four. To have a good performance at this stage needs more than just singing well. It has to feel special. Lauren wasn’t able to do that. Still, given the messes that the rest made of the first round, I’ll give her some credit for executing well.

Next for me… Haley. I docked major points from James last week for getting carried away and letting the singing suffer. Something similar happened here. Haley got the emotion of the song right, but she did sound screamy in parts. It wasn’t particularly good, but not particularly awful either. The word I’d use is average.

The criticism, though… was woefully off-base. Song choice is critical for Haley, but I can see the logic to her pick. It’s very similar to the Lady Gaga pick last week: it gives her more room to play with the arrangement, and it minimizes comparisons to the original. Certainly, I’d prefer this kind of high-risk strategy to singing the same warmed-over material over and over again, which Jennifer would seem to prefer. As for Randy’s commentary, I will pretend it never happened. It was more of the same inanity with no point that he’s known for. I hear words that make sentences, but I see no meaning.

Scotty’s only 17, so I’ll give him some credit. I don’t think he was pandering. I think he legitimately meant well with his song choice. Would he have made it had Osama bin Laden not been killed so recently? I doubt it, but it wasn’t out of malice and pandering. The performance itself wasn’t so bad, but again: we’ve heard it so many times before. Of course you can sing well if you can only sing in such a limited way! This did nothing for me.

Worst of the first round: James. If you’re looking for pandering, singing a song of one of the judges definitely qualifies. It’s supposed to be an exciting song, but… it wasn’t. Fortunately, James is always a good enough performer to keep things entertaining. But fundamentally, this performance had a lot more sizzle than steak.

The second round was better, but not by a lot. Haley… we’ve seen pretend angry on the Idol stage before. Not this time. Haley was legit mad. The result… a vocal that was just a bit below House of the Rising Sun, but damn… it’s been a while since a performance that intense, that personal, has been on the Idol stage. That was the very definition of leaving it all out on the Idol stage. Easily the best song of the night. Well done Haley.

From then on, though… yikes. “Best” of the rest would be James Durbin, but honestly it was another performance with more entertainment and sizzle than, well, singing. Maybe at the tender age of 27 I’m an old-fashioned sort, but shouldn’t a singer actually be capable of… singing well? In the absence of props, choreography, and all that?

As for Lauren and Scotty… they both had cringe-worthy performances. The word is… awkward. The songs just did not fit the singers. Scotty was all over the place – literally and figuratively. Lauren again cribbed from the Carrie Underwood playbook… but that’s just not a comparison that favors her at all. Both of these performances were the musical equivalent of the five-year-old kid playing dressup. Given how yung Lauren and Scotty are, that’s not too far off either.

Overall, the music was mixed – some good performances, but an awful lot of recycled and humdrum ones. The “action” was dominated by what took place on the judge’s side of the table – again. Idolsphere to Nigel Lythgoe and 19E: this is what sunk recent Idol seasons. The clowns on the other side of the table took the spotlight away from the contestants. You’re back in charge, in large part, because of the disaster that resulted. Why are you letting this happen again?

Battle of the Faces: Quick question. Which was the better face of this week – Ryan’s when he heard Steven and Randy’s exchange over Haley’s first song, or Haley’s reaction to the blatant bus-throw, the “three-way tie”?

Talking back – why it might work this year: Normally, talking back to the judges is considered a death sentence on Idol. However, there’s one reason why I think this might not work this year: no Simon.

Rightly or wrongly, Simon Cowell had the one thing that any judge needs: credibility. Or, if you’d rather use a bigger word, gravitas. People took him seriously, even if they disagreed with what he said. When he bused someone, it was a believable bus. And it worked. (In later seasons, however, Simon lost credibility and his busing ability was not as reliable. Ask David Cook how effective Simon’s attempt to bus him in Season Seven went.)

This panel, though, has none of that. None. If they had just done their jobs at all earlier in the season, they’d have some credit with viewers if they said somebody sucked. They don’t. When it comes to criticizing the judges, after their utterly disgraceful performance last night, words fail me.

What are we to make of all the make-nice bits after Haley’s second performance? Somebody backstage realized that there are few things more powerful than a pissed off fanbase. All that does is awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve. Haley fans were already unhappy and her hot run of late got her enough fans to boot her clear of the pimped Lauren. This is not a fanbase to take lightly; they’re energized in a way that we never saw last year.

Nigel Lythgoe already said via Twitter that the top four got 70 million votes. That’s basically double what last year’s top four got. Even if you ignore last year’s disaster, that’s still higher than the Season 8 top four show. It’s a fairly healthy increase from last week as well. How much of that came courtesy of Haley fans and people just plain angry at the blatant busing?

Expect the unexpected with tonight’s boot: Here’s a list of distinguished Idol alumni. Tamyra Gray. LaToya London. Chris Daughtry. Allison Iraheta. What do they have in common? They all left in fourth place even when other contestants were noticeably worse that week. You can’t rule out a shocker at this stage.

As I said above, I am unconvinced that the very mild backtalk – if we can even call it that – that we saw from Haley will hurt her. She sang I (Who Have Nothing) well enough to rule the night. For two-song nights, so long as you generally have one excellent performance people won’t care so much about a stinker (which, even by harsh standards, Earth Song wasn’t.) I think she’s safe.

After her, the next pick would be Lauren. But again, I’m unconvinced either: best song of the first round, plus a natural bounce from her bottom two appearance last week. If she had stumbled this week, sure. But she did what she had to do, and did it pretty well. And she goes home for that? Color me unconvinced.

If there’s going to be a shock boot, look towards James. He hasn’t done particularly well of late, but the judges aren’t calling him on it. It’s possible that could cause his fans to be complacent. Lauren’s fans will be out in force after her bottom two stint last week. Haley’s fans are angry and motivated. Scotty’s fanbase is bulletproof. Am I talking myself into a shock boot. Maybe. But it’s not implausible, isn’t it?

The shocker: James Durbin to go home.

Early in the season, I was rather optimistic about the judges. Here’s what I said:

The new judging panel seems to be working out quite well – none of them are as useless as Ellen was last year, J-Lo is figuring out a way to be supportive and not sound Paula-nuts, and Randy is settling into an “overseer” role, keeping things going. Perhaps most importantly, as I said last year, they didn’t try to replace the “nasty judge” slot that Simon filled.

That was back in the semi-finals. Boy, was my early optimism misplaced. Here’s what I said during the top eight week:

They were doing a good enough balance of giving criticism and praise earlier in the season; this week they ladled on the praise so thickly everyone at home was liable to become diabetic. It’s almost like we took Paula Abdul, took out the drunkenness and whatever else she was on, then cloned her three times. It’s enough to make you wish for Kara DioGuardi.

If anything, they were even worse this week. Their comments this week were more of the same vacuous, useless praise. “In it to win it” has become Randy’s new “pitchy”. Steven Tyler is either a mad prophet (sometimes, he is remarkably prescient), or just plain mad. J-Lo offers more lucid “advice” than the former Aerosmith frontman, but hers is not particularly useful either – and that advice comes in between some rather blatant self-promotion. Oy.

Of course, viewer unhappiness with Idol is nothing new. Simon Cowell was, by the end of his Idol tenure, frequently clueless (with comments that made no sense), gratuitously cruel, or trying too hard to manipulate viewers to what he wanted. The less said about Ellen, the better. Kara DioGuardi showed some potential, but the team dynamics were never in her favor.

So judge problems are something of an Idol tradition. The odd thing is, however, no other reality TV show seems to have so severe judge problems. I don’t follow other reality shows as much as I do Idol, but I never hear Dancing With The Stars fans complain so much about the judging. If there is complaining, it’s about a point or so in either direction – not the kind of “are they out of their mind?” thoughts that inhabit the Idolsphere every week.

Even Nigel Lythgoe should know that judges on TV shows don’t usually get the kind of fire Randy, J-Lo, or Steven have received. After all, he’s a judge on So You Think You Can Dance. I don’t see the eternally-shifting judging panels there draw the same fire that the Idol panel does. Clearly something is off in Idol-land.

The effects of the failure of Idol‘s judges to, ugh, judge were obvious: with no useful feedback, contestants got stuck in creative ruts. I understand that the “kinder, gentler” judging is a direct reaction to the cruelty of Simon’s later years, but they’ve gone too far. Criticism does not have to be cruel (a point Simon largely forget by the end of his tenure). It also requires judges who aren’t afraid of a little fire coming their way. High-profile celebrities like J-Lo and Steven have images to protect; they may think that “being tough” would hurt their images. Pointless, personal criticism would; but reasoned, well-meaning criticism won’t. The question is whether they’re capable of it.

Steven is probably a lost cause, but that’s fine. One cheerleader on the panel is not a problem. Jennifer and Randy, though… they’re not lost causes. They need a serious sit-down with Nigel post-season – or even right now – to lay out what’s expected of judges. They are not cheerleaders; they are there to deliver honest criticism and help turn these unpolished singers into true singers who can make it onto the national stage. This isn’t rocket science. So why is it so damn hard for Idol to pull it off. I don’t know; given that Nigel is such a self-professed “control freak” it’s a mystery why he’s letting this pass unnoticed. Either the panel has no cojones to do what’s necessary, or he wants it this way. (The latter might make sense as a contrast to Nasty Simon, but even then it’s gone way too far.)

Whatever the case, I can say this much: it’s turned what should have been a good Idol season – and still can be, to be fair – into an immensely frustrating one.

Lots of people have said that the guys have had the advantage this year. When the history of Season Ten is written, that may well be the case – but it sure as heck wasn’t the case this week. The ladies took risks, and there’s no other way to say it: the guys got owned last night, pure and simple.

Winner of the night – and it wasn’t even particularly close – was Haley. It was all due to her second song. Rarely has the course of a season changed on one song, but I genuinely think Haley did that this week. Words are not really enough to say how good House of the Rising Sun was. The vocals were great. She sang it like she really meant it. It felt… appropriately epic. Who knew that Steven Tyler, of all people, would prove prophetic? Didn’t he say that one performance could change things for Haley? Well, maybe Steven Tyler is some sort of mad prophet. If she can get into the finale – and her early struggles make that hard – I think she’ll win against anyone else. Even Scotty.

Don’t take away anything from the first song – it was a good performance in its own right. Yes, it was a risky choice, but that’s how Haley’s gotten this far. She’s taken the most risks out of this crop of finalists. Picking the unreleased Lady Gaga song was another decision like that. Given how current the first round songs would be, comparisons to the original are inevitable. Those rarely benefit the Idol contestant. So why not minimize the risk by picking something that’s relatively unknown? The fact that Haley is not a Lady Gaga-type of singer song further helps minimize the comparison. It was a calculated risk. It may not have paid off as well as Haley wanted, but after the second performance… who cares?

Lauren did well, but her version of Flat On The Floor showed exactly why Haley took that kind of risk. Under any other circumstances it would have been great. Good vocals, nice energy, played to the crowed, everything you could ask for. Flat On The Floor was never released as a single, but it was also the first song on the Carnival Ride tour setlist. In short, it’s the song that Carrie used to get people off their feet. That’s not a comparison Lauren can win. It was good, but it’s entirely in the shadow of the original. It’s a good thing that Unchained Melody was sung pretty well too. However, it too had a flaw of its own: it felt a little cold. Lauren’s a good singer, but with the slow, “sensitive” songs she has difficulty telling the emotions. Still, both of her performances were good in their own right. You could do a heck of a lot worse.

As for the guys, they had a very mixed bag. Scotty had one good performance and one not-so-good one. Gone never felt like it arrived at all, and honestly it almost seemed like the backup singers were doing more work than Scotty was. You Were Always On My Mind was much better, and Scotty really nailed it. I just wish he hadn’t hit this particular nail so many times already – how many slow country songs has Scotty done? Too many, in my opinion.

James had an incredibly off night. His first song was, for all the fancy clothing, and all the production values, incredibly boring. It all felt a bit silly. If you had your eyes closed for the entire performance, you would not have imagined that such an uninspiring vocal had that kind of props. On the other hand, maybe all the fancy effects was there to hide the singing. Your mileage may vary. The second song, though, was just not good. I understand it was emotional, but good singers are usually able to keep it in check and not let it affect the singing. If you have to break down, do it like Crystal Bowersox did last year with People Get Ready – break down at the end. It’s a singing competition, and James just didn’t sing well.

As for Jacob, well… the first rule when you’re in a hole is simple: stop digging. Instead, we got another two over-the-top, over-singing performances. Dismal.

Who’s going home: By all rights, this should be easy. Jacob has shown essentially zero growth since the semifinals. He’s clearly over his head, and is as obvious a pick as it should be.

And yet… I can’t shake the evil feeling we’re in for a huge robbery later tonight. Haley has exceeded everyone’s expectations, to be honest – if I told you that her leaving fifth would be a robbery, the response would be: “You’re nuts.” Yet, that’s exactly where we are. No one has shown more improvement over a season of Idol than Haley. No one. She should be safe, but the sad reality is she won’t be. There’s a very good chance she’ll be right beside whoever goes home tonight at the end – and just an off chance she could go home.

However, a common theory in the sports world is the “nobody believes in us” theory. In short, if no one gives a team – or player – a shot at victory, that is when they are most dangerous. Isn’t Haley in this territory already? Did anyone really give her a chance of winning? I rather doubt it. “Nobody believed in us” is powerful mojo, and it’s been paying off dividends for Haley. Maybe, just maybe, it will work right to the end.

The pick: Jacob Lusk to go home.