Officially, American Idol isn’t a scripted show. Idol Gives Back, however, might as well be as carefully choreographed and scripted as any sitcom. The guest stars, the contestants in white, the tragic videos… it’s the same script every year.

I’ve never been a huge fan of the whole IGB concept, but I’ve said enough on that so I won’t repeat myself. So, let’s instead look at what the remaining top six need to do to get into the finale.

Note that I said “get into the finale”, not win. Let’s be brutally honest. Crystal is going to be the hardest frontrunner to beat in Idol history. Harder than Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood, or even (more recently) David Cook.

A lot of that is due to being Crystal a naturally gifted singer who’d do well in any season, but her ability to curbstomp everyone else into submission is partially due to the weakness of the rest of the field. It’s hard to see a scenario where anyone else could win.

The historians would object: what about Melinda Doolittle? Wasn’t she supposed to win Season Six too? Well, there’s one key difference. Melinda was against at least some opponents who could put up a challenge. This year? It’s like sending a World Series-contending team against a marginal AAA-level minor league team. Crystal is pretty good, but it’s not like her competition is that hard either.

With that in mind…

1. Crystal Bowersox

The main problem Crystal has to face is complacency – i.e., avoid a Melinda Doolittle. It’s something that’s really out of her hands – she can only sing well every night and give her fans a reason to vote for her. She can’t wring necks through the screen and get people to pick up the phone.

One advantage Crystal does have over Melinda is she’s doesn’t have the old-fashioned image (so far as she had one). Crystal is artistically, firmly a creature of the New Idol era. She has a firm idea of what kind of artist she is, and picks songs/rearranges them to suit that. The formula for her is essentially “keep doing what you’re doing.”

2. Lee DeWyze

Lee is probably the best-positioned of the rest of the pack to reach the finale with Crystal. And lose. To be fair, he is doing some things right: he’s picking the right songs, and singing them, well, at least competently.

What Lee needs is simple: emotion. He sings his songs well enough, but you don’t get the conviction, the emotion that you get from Crystal, or other frontrunners in the past. His consistency is actually pretty good.

The trouble is, fundamentally, Lee is a midcard performer that’ll be pushed into the finale because there’s no one else. He’s a slightly stronger mid-card performer than usual, but let’s not kid ourselves: he’s not Elliott Yamin or Allison Iraheta. He needs to prove he’s a legitimate contender to even threaten Crystal: he needs to improve week to week, and be consistent doing so.

3. Siobhan Magnus

Every season has a frontrunner who loses their way. Siobhan is it this year.

Her problem is two fold: bad song choices leading to bad singing. The fundamental diagnosis is actually fairly common to power singers like Siobhan: they have a powerful voice, rely on it too much, start screaming, and lose the plot.

The solution for Siobhan is actually fairly simple: stop oversinging and screaming. Figure out just what she wants to sing, and concentrate on that. Stop trying to be “different” for the heck of it; she seems to be falling prey to a little of that. (Certainly, her outfits have been on the kooky side of… unique.)

4. Casey James

Lee and Casey are something of twins. Their issue is the same: neither is singing particularly emotionally. Unfortunately, Casey has a separate issue: he’s not singing particularly well, either.

Casey has a lot of work to do. First, he really needs to differentiate himself from the pack. He can do that, by for one, singing well. Casey has not really had a truly standout performance recently. He’s just there: very mediocre and average.

The other issue is similar to Lee: sing with emotion. He’s shown signs of it, but he’s not doing it consistently enough to matter.

5. Michael Lynche

Big Mike has the biggest personality out of all the contestants left. The trouble is… he can’t sing consistently. He’ll do well one week, screw up the next… that is not a formula for ending up in the finale.

Now, Big Mike actually has something of an advantage over the likes of Casey and Lee – if he can sing a song well, he can express emotions pretty well. Unfortunately, he’s been digging a hole for himself of late. It might be too late.

6. Aaron Kelly

Aaron’s not going to make it to the finale, period. He is just too raw, inexperienced, and not that good. At this stage in the competition, he’s primarily a “spoiler” for the likes of Casey and Big Mike.

Idol Gives Back night is turning into something of a trap night. Two years ago inspirational songs night wasn’t really anything to write home about. I called it “lifeless.” This year’s version? Even worse. Save for three performances, really, it was a disaster.

Let’s say it: Crystal Bowersox is thoroughly outclassing everyone else this season. She is dominating an Idol season in a way no other contestant has. A lot of that is due to the weak field, but I dare say she’d be in the top two of any season you put her in. My main complaint about Crystal to date has been she hasn’t had her one, defining, moment. We can all strike that. This was the best vocal I’ve seen from anyone all season long. Good song choice, brilliant arrangement, and you don’t get more “real”, artistically. She could not have done that any better.

A long way down the rankings, but second best, is Lee DeWyze. To be fair, this was an inspired song choice. It suited his voice, and the arrangement played to Lee’s strengths. I’m not going to quibble with the singing. But as performance… no. Lee just can’t express emotions with his face. He’s actually fine when he’s singing, but when he’s not – like the gaps between verses – it goes away. The authenticity and emotion you get with a Crystal is just not there with Lee.

I suggested When You Believe as a possible song choice for Syesha Mercado two years ago. How did Siobhan Magnus do? It was a mixed bag. The arrangement was awful, first of all: the original has an epic, larger-than-life feel. This arrangement took that all away. The start was a little rough, but when Siobhan got into it… the singing was pretty good. It was something of a salvage job – Siobhan did the best she could, but that arrangement was just too big a handicap. There’s a lot of could-have-been here, but overall? Decent, but nothing more.

The rest of the night… was sort of ugly. Michael Lynche sang the best of the rest… it’s just that his song choice was awful. I keep saying that singing a song is like telling a story. This song felt like it was random words attached to a tune. Like Siobhan, this was a salvage job, and Big Mike’s voice was okay, but the reaction to it was essentially: what on earth was that?

This is becoming something of a refrain for Casey James: he sings a song decently, but is utterly uninteresting, dull, and boring. That’s exactly what he did. The vocals were okay, but there was no excitement. This might have been acceptable in the group rounds. But in the Top 7? Really?

One of the constant warnings on Idol is “don’t sing a song that’s too big for your voice!” Well, Aaron Kelly broke that. Big time. He just doesn’t have the gravitas – for lack of a better word – to pull that song off. This was the singing equivalent of a six-year-old girl playing dress-up.

And Tim Urban… ay. The only good thing I can say about it: it wasn’t his worst performance. Was it any good? No. Personally, I’d like to have my Top 7 contestants to have a range that’s not measured in single-digit notes.

The comparison ends: Recently, Tim Urban has been compared by some Idol analysts to Sanjaya Malakar. That’s unfair. Tim is awful, but the special trainwreck factor that Sanjaya had is something Tim doesn’t. (To be specific, it was the sinking feeling whenever Sanjaya sang that had the audience reeling and thinking, “he did what?”)

There is one valid comparison, though. Sixth or seventh is when the Sanjaya-type contestants – those who stay far beyond the merits of their vocals deserve – go. It used to be sixth (notable sixth-placers: Carmen Rasmusen, John Stevens, and Kellie Pickler), but of late it’s drifted down (notable seventh-placers: Ace Young, Sanjaya Malakar, and Kristy Lee Cook).

Tim Urban is, by far, the worst contestant left in this group. History suggests it will be his time to go. To be fair, this isn’t the instant call it might otherwise be: Aaron Kelly has been mediocre to date as well. However you call it, though, he hasn’t been as awful as Tim has.

TIG pick: Tim Urban to go home.

Last year, Adam Lambert was (in)famous for being the ultimate Your Mileage May Vary contestant. Just as many people loved him as hated him. Based on the early returns, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that a Lambert-mentored night turned out similarly. Based on the early What Not to Sing numbers, well, people’s opinions are all over the place. The only consensus is who was best and who was worst.

I’ll never get tired of writing this sentence down: “Crystal Bowersox was the best of the night.” It was clearly the standout of the night: good song choice, good vocals, and overall an enjoyable performance. I’m not sure if swapping out the acoustic guitar for an electric one helped. Not her best, but enough to win.

The best that can be said about Lee DeWyze tonight was his song was a crowd-pleaser. The worst that can be said is… it was a crowd-pleaser. Here’s what we mean: it was well sung, entertaining, and executed well. However, there wasn’t an awful lot of substance to it. It was good, yes, but not “amazing” as Randy said. Kara was on the right track, but “playful” was the wrong word; I would have used… expressive. Lee was a little lacking in that area, but that’s sort of expected from him.

Casey James, once again, had a similar performance to Lee. Except it was worse. Lee had the benefit of being entertaining. Casey was not. The vocals were good, but honestly we saw not one iota of passion or excitement. A formula for a good song this does not make.

Miracles do happen, and Tim Urban not being horrific is proof. To be fair, though, he’s found what works for him: pick songs that don’t challenge his voice, and emote the hell out of them. And look good for the tweens. Very similar to Hallelujah and All My Loving. Not bad.

Michael Lynche threw away a giant opportunity with his performance. Yes, he sang In The Ghetto well. However, more than most songs that one is about conveying emotion and honesty. And Big Mike failed there. There was no hint of emotion, no drama, no feelings the way he sang it. It was, well, dull. I don’t know what the judges saw in this performance.

Another pair with similar performances: Aaron Kelly and Katie Stevens. Both of them delivered reasonably good vocals… and completely missed the mark. As I have said too many times before in the past, good singing by itself does not a good Idol performance make. It’s about telling a story, really, and both of them failed. Katie gets the nod over Aaron for at least being entertaining, but really… it’s not much of a difference. Oh, and what is with this head slide/bob that Katie does all the time? It’s… distracting, to say the least.

It looks like Siobhan Magnus took a course in Advanced Glory-Noting from Adam. Who knew Suspicious Minds could have that many glory notes? The second half was sung well, yes, but I’m not convinced it suited the original song as well. The first half was an utter wreck – Siobhan can’t do subtle lyrics at all, and national TV is a bad place to learn how. Simon had Siobhan dead to rights with his judging this week. Fundamentally, Siobhan is a girl with an immensely powerful voice who has become over-reliant on that one skill – glory notes – to the exclusion of everything else.

Here’s a sign how badly Andrew Garcia flubbed Hound Dog. I thought Katharine McPhee did a better job on the song years ago, and it was one of her notable disasters. Maybe we should give him a new nickname: Andrew “Teleprompter” Garcia. Why? Because that is what he sounds like most of the time – like he’s reading the lyrics off one. All-around awful.

So here’s how the night stood for us:

1. Crystal Bowersox
2. Lee DeWyze
3. Casey James
4. Tim Urban
5. Michael Lynche
6. Katie Stevens
7. Aaron Kelly
8. Siobhan Magnus
9. Andrew Garcia

Fundamentally, the reason this was such a mixed bag on the opinion pools is simple. There’s not a large gap between third and, say, eighth. All of those performances had their good points, but even more so than usual the weak points were just as apparent. People, depending on their tastes, will mix and match and find different people good or bad.

A Two For One Deal: The obvious “casualty” from this week is Andrew. He was pretty awful, to be honest, has been for a while, and did himself no favors. He’s gone. Even mad power-voters can’t get him out of the two-place cellar.

The big question is who’ll go out beside Andrew. For that, well… I have no idea. There’s no good previous precedent – both of the previous double exits happened later in the season. Throw in a pecking order that is in serious chaos and you might as well guess.

If you have to guess, might as well make it an interesting one… and I’ll pick Katie to go home. No good reason, really, but my gut is telling me something’s not right here.

TIG picks: Andrew Garcia and Katie Stevens to go home.

There were a lot of shocking things on Idol this week. Aside from the amazingly good performances this week, there were two other major surprises that we learned about: first was Michael Lynche being saved from elimination, and the identity of next week’s mentor: Adam Lambert.

Last-Minute Reprieve… Or Was It?: The talk of the Idolsphere was Michael Lynche being saved by the judges this week. However, the shocker isn’t so much that Big Mike was saved; it’s more that it was he was at risk in the first place.

However, I’m not sure it was so much a surprise as it ought to be. The Sesame Street Effect was out in full force. The choice was clear between Aaron and Andrew to boot, so their fans both voted like mad. Poor Mike got caught in the crossfire, and was particularly vulnerable because his performance was very much an acquired taste. As usual, “shockers” on Idol aren’t.

As for the save… I didn’t find the decision to save Big Mike all that shocking, to be honest. Based on his total work to date, there were clearly worse contestants still in the competition. Essentially, the question raised if the save was not used would be – Big Mike is out, but the likes of Tim, Andrew, and Aaron are still in? If one of those three produced a Sanjaya-like fiasco later down the road, the question would definitely be asked – and no one would like the answers. Best to get it out of the way as soon as possible, and because Big Mike had done This Woman’s Work so well he was credible enough to be saved.

This Is Not A Drill: The real shocker of the week came well before the performances began. Adam Lambert was announced to be next week’s mentor; more recent rumors have the theme being Elvis Presley songs.

At the very least, it’s going to be an… interesting night. Adam was a uniquely polarizing figure as a contestant, and just the announcement itself was enough to start countless Internet battles. In truth, it’ll probably be something like Miley night – Adam will offer woefully generic advice, and neither will he be able to stop contestants if they really decide to do something stupid.

The most interesting case, however, is likely to happen with Siobhan. She’s a screamer; no one doubts Adam’s one as well. This will either turn out very well, or very poorly. I have no idea which way it will go. In a perverse way, that’s true for the entire night.

Now, about the flame war currently engulfing the Idol forums after the announcement… the doubters are (mostly) right. This is another attempt by 19E to pimp Adam. Truth be told, he’s not the international superstar his fans portray him as, but nor is he the flop his worst critics say he is. I’d say he’s what we saw in the season: someone who’s able to gather a reasonably-sized fanbase, but has difficulty crossing over to mainstream audiences. It’s not the best position to be in, but it could be worse as well.

As for his qualifications, yes, he may be unqualified, but honestly – most of the Idol mentors have been that way as well. If he’s going to offer useful advice, it might be more about the overall Idol experience, but unless he spends a lot of time with the contestants (doubtful, as his “mentoring” will be in Vegas and not Los Angeles) I doubt there’s much to learn. It’s a ratings stunt and pimping opportunity. Frankly, it’s the sort of behavior I expect from 19E.