Our ears are still reeling from country night. It’s not because the night was bad – it wasn’t. The best way to describe it was a night of contrasts. Those who were good were really good. The bad were utterly and spectacularly craptastic. No, what left us in a rather cranky mood was that of the four butcherings of the night, two were of songs that have found comfortable residences in our personal music library. Few things annoys us more than having a song we are rather familiar with being mangled beyond all recognition in front of millions of people.

Let’s start with the bright spots of country week. Melinda slipped a little before, but she came back in a big way this time. She’s been the other big target of our “show versatility” meme, but unlike Lakisha’s failed effort last week she delivered. It wasn’t her usual material, but it was just as good. Her vocals were excellent, she connected with the song, and also showed some decent performance skills as well. It was even “fun” – a word that’s not always one you’d use to describe her performances! There’s not much – if any – to criticize this week. Weeks like this are exactly why she is one of the front-runners this season.

Phil has been extremely inconsistent all season long, so we were quite pleasantly surprised he did Where The Blacktop Ends rather well. While it wasn’t quite the display Melinda put on later in the show, for someone opening the show Phil did very well. It’s something we haven’t seen in a while from him, and this was probably his best performance since Tobacco Road. Perhaps, it was even his best of the season. He also worked the audience well, which is always a good thing. Make no mistake, though: Phil is still in the hot seat. He’s done well to get to the top six, but going further is not particularly easy.

As we said last week, with Jordin it’s always about song choice. It was something of a calculated risk – with a lesser singer, it would have bombed. However, Jordin is supremely gifted, and there’s no better coach of a Martina McBride song than Martina McBride. Wittingly or not, Martina’s advice to just plant her feet and sing played to Jordin’s strengths. She’s a great singer with a good balance of power and control, but she becomes a little ordinary when she tries to go with a faster song and move around the stage. There was none of that on Tuesday; we were treated Jordin at her best. It was her best performance since British Invasion week, and she can challenge Melinda for best of the night if she gives herself the chance to do so.

As for the losers, the biggest disappointment is Lakisha. She’s Reason #1 for this week’s crankiness. It’s no surprise she did poorly in the country genre, but we had no idea she would tank that badly. Of course, she did herself no favors with her song choice. Back when Gina did Alone in the top 20, we pointed out that doing a song that had been done well on Idol before was a risk. What Lakisha did was even worse than that. Jesus Take The Wheel is Carrie Underwood’s signature song – and if you’re going to do someone else’s signature song, you’d better knock it out of the park. That goes double if that someone happens to be a previous Idol contestant. What on earth possessed her mind and made her think this was a good idea? To make matters worse, she wasn’t anywhere near the kind of perfection needed. Heck, it wasn’t even good. It was bad.

In the interests of full disclosure, we have to preface this by saying we’re a Carrie Underwood fan. One of the things that makes her so good, in our opinion, is that she can combine both power and control so well. She can hit the power notes and be in full control at the same time. Jesus Take The Wheel is a perfect example of that. Unfortunately, Lakisha’s control was shaky throughout the whole song, and when she tried to go for the power she lost whatever control she had. The second half of her performance frankly sounded like a giant scream-fest that would not end. It was a complete and utter disaster.

Many weeks ago, Sanjaya became a walking parody of himself. Maybe it began with the ponyhawk, but it culminated with him choosing Something to Talk About. Yes, he’s been something to talk about – but for all the wrong reasons. Of all the songs he could sing, he chose that? After one week of flirting with decency, he went back to his usual form of being awful. It was the type of performance that would get anyone else booed off the stage by drunks at a karaoke bar. Even compared to his previous performances, it was listless.

We’ll give Blake some credit. He’s becoming the resident theme-dodger. Tim McGraw doing When The Stars Go Blue gave Blake just enough cover to justify twisting the theme beyond all recognition. Tim McGraw may have covered it once, but Blake’s version was a lot more similar to the one by the Corrs and Bono. That exact one just happens to be one of our own favorite songs, and we were far from pleased with Blake’s version. Andrea Corr and Bono both brought wonderfully restrained, but emotional vocals to the table that fit the song supremely well. Blake’s attempt wasn’t even close. The original was full of heartfelt emotion; Blake’s had all the emotion of a dry legal document. Technically, it wasn’t terrible, just average, but “average” does not a winner make. Neither does emotionless, almost robotic singing. We’re getting a little bored with Blake, to be honest. He’s sounding very one-dimensional of late – it’s the second week in a row that he’s taken what should be two good songs and “put his own style on it.” To translate from Idol doublespeak, that means he drained whatever color the original had.

Many strange things have been said on American Idol, and Chris just added to the list with his statement saying “Nasally is a form of singing.” Unfortunately, that was the most memorable part of his whole performance. Like Simon, we don’t get what it was all about either. His vocals are still bad, but is anyone really shocked by that? Chris is, in many ways, is like Blake. Every song is sounding rather similar to the next one. It’s not as boring yet, but only because it’s more horrifying.

Something to talk about over and over again: it took nine rounds of voting before Sanjaya went home – a lot more than it frankly ought to. The story isn’t why Sanjaya left now – it’s how he got this far in the first place!

A lot of it had very little to do with what Sanjaya did, but with the mistakes everyone who was eliminated beforehand made. They either strayed from who they were musically, weren’t that good in the first place, had the misfortune of splitting votes with someone better, or were just unable to gather a big enough fan base to keep them safe. They all made mistakes that left them vulnerable to someone who didn’t make those kinds of mistakes. Did they have, theoretically, more talent and potential? Sure, but potential is just that: potential. What matters is what they actually do on the stage, and some proved not to be up to the challenge.

Of course, how did Sanjaya avoid making those same mistakes and not get voted off before he did? Actually, he did. All of his performances from the top 12 onwards were bad enough to merit getting booted. Sanjaya, however, was blessed to have a fan base that may well be the most fanatical in Idol history. We’re not talking about Howard Stern and his ilk; we’re talking about the tweens who made up the core of his fan base. It was a group that voted for Sanjaya despite how badly he did. How he got that fan base, we don’t know either. No matter how he got it, he had it, and it took him this far.

What ultimately did him in was his own notoriety. Everyone else in the final seven either had respectable fan bases, or were buoyed by an exceptional performance. None of those groups had any interest in seeing their bet become the next unfortunate soul to become Sanjaya’s next victim, so perhaps they all worked harder this week compared to past ones. Casual fans not tied to any particular contestant may also have decided enough was enough and voted for anyone, so long as it wasn’t Sanjaya.

Every season has someone who gets too far in the competition. Fifth to seventh is usually where they place. Consider the following three contestants, who all fit into their roles in their respective seasons:

John Stevens – Season 3, finished sixth
Scott Savol – Season 4, finished fifth
Kellie Pickler – Season 5, finished sixth

All things considered, Sanjaya can be considered a fairly typical case of the over-achieving contestant. Sanjaya will become notorious because even among the “bad” contestants he was exceptionally bad. After all, he made us establish the Sanjaya Zone in his “honor.”

The road to the Kodak Theatre nears: with the top 12 now cut in half, it’s worth taking a look at who among the six contestants left have a good chance of actually making it to the Kodak Theatre. Of course, you never know what’s going to happen, which is why, as they say in sports, they play the game – or, in this case, sing the songs. Still, we can speculate what is likely to happen. Besides, if we couldn’t do that, then we’d be out of a job, wouldn’t we?

The shoo-in
Lately we’ve had someone in every season that seems to be destined to make the finale. Melinda’s in that role this time. She’s been superb right from the get-go, and no one else in the top six can realistically challenge for that. The only potential trouble could be some sort of vote-splitting between her and Lakisha, but enough to knock her out before then? I doubt it. Honestly, we can’t imagine a scenario where Melinda isn’t in the final two.

Still in it
Realistically the fight for the other finale slot comes down to Jordin and Blake. For Jordin to win, she needs to become more consistent, play to her strengths as a singer, and avoid the kind of mistakes that led her to pick such mistakes like Hey Baby. Ordinarily, Blake wouldn’t even be in the running for a final two slot, but with the utter hopelessness of fully half of the remaining field he does this time. Even then, there’s very little he can do to help his cause. His best opportunity may well be if Jordin makes a serious mistake. The odds favor Jordin heavily, but Blake still isn’t completely out of it.

Snowball’s chance in hell
Fully half of the top six have no chance to make it to the finale. They all have some sort of fatal flaw that will stop them from getting that far. If anything, they ought to be more concerned with not getting eliminated next than getting to the finale.

Phil has not shown any consistency either in skill or style. This week, he was good, but can he sustain it? We’re unconvinced. More importantly, his lack of consistency means he has probably been unable to build up a core of fans that will vote for him through thick or thin. He needs to be excellent just to stay in it. He could end up in the final four, but even that’s a longshot. A boot in the next two weeks is more likely.

The only question is who will leave first: Chris or Phil. Our money’s on Phil. Chris’s vocals have received a lot of fire from the judges, and rightly so. He’s been relying on performance skills to escape the boot up to this point (along with even weaker singers below him going first), but now he’s in the hot seat. Chances are, he goes next – unless he brings us an out-of-this-world experience. We’re not holding our breath for that.

Two singers from the same genre have never made it to the finale – that’s the hard fact that Lakisha is facing. She’s not as good as Melinda, and any vote-splitting is hurting her more. It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that the might not make top four, although because Chris and Phil are relatively weak her chances aren’t too bad overall. An excellent comparison would be Season 3: two singers with very similar styles went up against two others who were not as good, but had their own physical style. We know how that turned out – LaToya London went out fourth and Fantasia Barrino went on to win. The scenario seems to be repeating itself.

We weren’t expecting much from Latin week – I mean, Jennifer Lopez as mentor? She’s famous for many things… but her singing isn’t always on top of that particular list. Her expertise seems to lie more in getting herself on the front page of various supermarket tabloids and celebrity magazines. Even with those reduced expectations, we have to be honest: this week’s performances were not good. It was so bad and cheesy, we think the state of Wisconsin might have missed a golden opportunity to promote itself.

Before we turn our eye to the specific performances, we have to say something about the song choices. The theme wasn’t as limited as the two previous ones were, so it’s safe to assume there were more song choices this time around. So why so many Gloria Estefan songs? She’s in the same category as Stevie Wonder, Celine Dion, or Mariah Carey: unless you really know what you’re doing, don’t try it! Besides, the cheese factor with her songs is ridiculously high. Conga by itself has enough cheese to make us queasy – and we’re not lactose-intolerant.

One reason the performance night was so bad was no one was really “good.” Even in a subpar night, there’s usually one or two performances that are above the rest. Not this time. Every performance had a mix of both the good and the bad. Some had more good than the rest; it was still a bad night overall. It was almost painful to watch.

Back to the Muddled Middle: Earlier in the season we coined the term Muddled Middle to describe would-be Idols who weren’t good or bad and aren’t really rankable because there’s so little to differentiate them. Everyone was in it this week. So there won’t be any rankings this week; let’s just go over it in performance order.

With Melinda you’ll have nothing bad to say about the singing itself. As usual it was good–technically. That’s never been her problem–connecting to the material is. Most of the time she can pull it off, but this was just too far from her usual repertoire. The best word to describe her performance was professional. She did her best, and it was reasonably good. There’s a difference between saying, “that was well sung,” and “that was a fantastic performance.” Melinda was closer to the former than the latter.

Lakisha was something of an oddity. We’ve been saying for weeks now show some versatility! Well, that’s what she tried. Unfortunately, there’s a corollary to the “show versatility” rule that’s rarely talked about. When you go out of your genre/comfort zone that much, you’d better be very good. Otherwise, you come off as a second- or third-rate singer. That’s exactly how she came off, however. She has an above-average voice, so why choose a song that didn’t show that? She doesn’t have good dance moves, so why go in that direction? It’s one thing to show versatility and another thing entirely to forget who you are as a singer.

Chris’s Smooth tended to be overpowered by the band. Usually that’s a bad thing, but not this time. The singing was horrendously weak; we’ve heard better in karaoke bars. He has good performance skills and good looks… but not much else. We feel like we’re repeating ourselves again here, but that’s because we probably have. Chris is not a good singer. He’s an above average performer, and that’s what’s keeping him afloat. What were the judges thinking with the tongue bath? Seldom has praise been less deserved. One thing for sure: Rob Thomas he ain’t!

Speaking of “karaoke,” Randy felt the need to drop the word when it came to Haley. It wasn’t quite that bad – the vocals aren’t appreciably different from what we’ve gotten from her before. It’s not bad, just okay. Simon’s right that she’s chosen a good strategy, though, it’s not just about the scanty clothing. She knows she’s not that good a singer, so she’s bringing upping her entertainment value. Uptempo songs. Sexy outfits. It’s a formula that works well enough out in the real world. It’s no surprise that it’s working (or, perhaps, worked) for Haley.

There’s not much to say about Phil’s performance, really. Sometimes Phil has the best voice among the remaining guys – operative word being sometimes. Other times, he’s been shaky. It doesn’t matter which one it was, though. There was little to remember in the performance. In a night of dubious song choices, Phil made one of the worst ones possible. Maria Maria‘s most recognizable parts are not the vocals, but Carlos Santana’s guitar. It’s not like Smooth where you’ve got unique vocals to go with the guitar. Maria Maria is not a vocalist’s song. The vocals are almost secondary to the whole thing. Is this what you really want to bring to a singing competition?

Jordin’s probably the most talented singer left in this group. Unfortunately, she has a tendency to make boneheaded song choices. It seems the more recent the theme, the dumber they are. Our theory is she’s picking songs that she likes as opposed to songs that can actually work well for her. Sometimes those two categories happily coexist, but with Jordin that’s not the case. That said, it was an above average performance for the night. It was a somewhat more convincing performance than either Melinda’s or Lakisha’s, but that’s entirely because she has a younger, more energetic personality than just about anyone else left. The genre was still a horrible fit for her, but not as bad as it was for, say, Melinda.

Blake got the title of best of the night, but that’s not because he was any good. He doesn’t have an outstanding voice, but he knows how to use what he does have. His decisions don’t always make a great deal of sense (Mack the Knife, anyone?) but he never forgets to put his own touch to a song. I Need to Know was just competent, but it’s really trademark Blake. Fair to so-so vocals (at best), but with his own twist on it. One more thing is that Blake is never severely disconnected from the material – the way someone like Lakisha can be. That comes, however, from essentially ignoring the “flavor” of each theme and doing his own style anyway. It had very little of the original’s flavor.

Sanjaya was, perhaps for the first time in weeks, tolerable. Maybe it was just because he was his usual not-so-good self, and it was everyone else coming down to his level. Still, the whole performance was off-putting. He still can’t sing, but he’s been taking lessons from the Constantine Maroulis School of Eye-Effing. Creepy would be the best adjective – and let’s not forget that mustache, or whatever it was. There’s actually an invention that’s useful for such things. It’s called a razor blade. Our advice to Sanjaya: Use it. Love it.

No more eye candy: Unlike the last few boots – which have all had the “too early” vibe – the one from Haley’s was far different. It was a case of everyone saying “it’s about time!”

Haley did very well to go as far as she did. She was never a great vocalist and couldn’t be expected to go very far, but there’s always been more to Idol than just pure singing ability. She may not be a good singer, but she’s an above average entertainer. The looks and lack of clothing were part of it, but so were the fast songs and the blatant flirting with the audience. She’s not as bad as the judges sometimes made her out to be. She didn’t have us cringing in horror the way Sanjaya did – but she wasn’t anywhere near the frontrunners. Simply put, Haley got as far as she could realistically be expected to go, and not any further.

Style over substance: It’s not just this episode that wasn’t good, but the whole season so far has been something of a lemon. One big reason is that in what may be an American Idol first, there’s an (over)emphasis on performance skills, above and beyond singing ability. Call it a triumph of style over substance.

None of this is particularly new, of course. The Idol community has been arguing over how important performance skills are since Season 4, if not even earlier. We’ve had good singers who had excellent performers and excellent singers who weren’t such hot performers. What hasn’t happened before, though, is having “front-runners” who aren’t really good singers at all and are getting by almost entirely on performance alone.

Let’s look at the seven who are left. You’ve got the two divas and a kind-of-sort-of type in Jordin. You have Phil, who is inconsistent and is bound to go sooner rather than later. The three contestants left – Blake, Chris, and Sanjaya – are all really getting by on performance alone. It’s one thing to be a good singer who happens to be a good performer to boot. We’ve had plenty of those before. Last year’s winner, Taylor Hicks, certainly could be considered as such. What we have today, however, are performers who can’t sing very well – another thing entirely!

The mantra about American Idol is that it’s a singing competition. Setting aside the fact that as a TV show, the key measure of Idol’s success is ratings, the show’s goal isn’t just to find the best technical singer. It’s to find the next chart-topping musical star. It’s not just singing ability that comes into play there – so does charisma, personality, and a ton of other things that get tossed together in the so-called “X-factor”. It is a popularity contest, but few things in life aren’t, in one way or another. (Besides, many of those who use that description do so with a heavy dose of snide elitism that, to say the least, annoys us.)

Performance skills are a good thing to have, but it’s the music business. We must have missed the memo that you no longer have to sing well to become a singer. The “X-factor” is becoming the more important factor. That is not such a good thing. Good performance skills are a complement to good singing ability, not a replacement for it. Whoever said showmanship could replace the ability to carry a tune must have been a complete and utter moron – and tone-deaf, to boot.

It’s not just Idol, of course – it’s something that’s affecting the whole music industry. Who thought letting tabloid fodder like Paris Hilton and Lindsay Lohan record albums was a good idea? That’s an idea which as recently as a few years ago would have been met with ridicule. “Singing” is become a noun with a very flexible meaning. Is it any coincidence that sales in recent years have been falling? Maybe, just maybe, it’s because I’m not the only one who thinks a lot of what passes itself off as “music” lately is utter crap?

We’ve heard some comments saying that “Blake/Chris/Sanjaya, with a little work, could be a platinum-selling artist.” Maybe… but given the current state of the music industry, that’s not saying much. It’s like the contemporary tag that the judges like to use every now and then. It seems to mean “it sounds like the sort of stuff that sells millions today, even if it is rubbish.” Maybe, from the commercial perspective, that’s completely true. As a music fan, however, it’s something we have a hard time warming up to.

The bird is on semi-permanent holiday: The bird who’s been giving us the (supposed) official results gave us some bad news today. Apparently his source for the numbers got involved in some sort of fight. We don’t know all the details of the fight, but the end result is what matters: there might be no numbers from now on. Oh well – it was interesting while we had the numbers, but we had a feeling that it wouldn’t last forever.

One of the many ironies of American Idol is that the nights with the oldest songs are often among the best of each season. We’re not quite sure what to make of Tuesday night yet. No obvious disasters, but no standouts either. It was, to be honest, sort of dull.

There are a few things you’ll find with a theme like this you won’t find anywhere else. You won’t have any truly disastrous performances – everyone’s vocals will at least be bearable. It becomes as much about “selling” the performance as anything else. That doesn’t mean vocal ability suddenly becomes irrelevant. For the middle of the pack performers who don’t have the kind of vocals that others like Melinda or Jordin have, however, it becomes much more important. In some ways, this week was a lot more about style than substance.

Sitting pretty: it’s nice to be on top of the pile, and Melinda’s been there since… the season started, really. Why shouldn’t she be there, though? Her vocals are top-notch, and she’s been able to connect with her song every time. There’s nothing new to say here. Still not much in the way of versatility, but it’s something she doesn’t need as much. It could hurt her when it gets down to the final four, though.

The only other person to be in the same league was Jordin. She’s so good, we keep forgetting she’s only 17. I don’t think Idol has had anyone else who was so good at so young an age. Good vocals, good control, and good song choice. When Jordin is “on”, she’s as good as anyone else. Unfortunately, that’s not always the case. She could end up in the finale – but her consistency, or lack of it, will determine if she’ll be singing in the Kodak Theater.

The, uh, best of the rest. Relatively: There wasn’t much to separate the other seven contestants. The singing was at least bearable (yes, including Sanjaya), and was even good for some. Still, none of them felt like a complete performance. Something was always missing.

Let’s start with Blake and Chris. We’ve said before that they’re both making up for their weaker vocals with good performance skills, and that was even more true than usual this week. They both ignored the actual meaning of what they were singing and put their own spin on it anyway. Now, does this sound familiar? You bet it does. We said something very similar way back in the top 12! Both Blake and Chris did their best to ignore the “theme” (whatever it was) and impose their own style on it. We’re tempted to bring out the “indulgent” tag… and Simon might well use it himself sooner or later. I mean, really, can it get any more indulgent than singing a song titled Mack the Knife like it’s a happy song?

As for Lakisha… well, as usual it was technically good. Unfortunately, that means bupkis as long as Melinda’s also in it. She seems to have difficulty connecting with her material too – it’s always well-sung, but it doesn’t quite move those watching. Also, why does Lakisha keep ignoring what the guest mentors advice her? She ignored Lulu’s advice on song choice, and she kept the run when Tony Bennett told her not to. Is this a case of “Kiki always knows best?”

When you do a very slow song – which Phil did with Night and Day – it’s something of a risk. You have to really knock it out of the park, or otherwise it comes off as being the next cure for insomnia. Phil… it was well done, but I wouldn’t listen to it if I was sleepy. It was okay, but it had no wow factor. We’d go as far as saying it was not a good song choice, but with such a limited theme that may not have been possible. (There’s a rumor floating around that the Idols had a grand total of 20 songs to choose from. Make of that what you will.)

When your legs are the focus of your performance, that’s not a good sign. Still, Haley’s performance wasn’t that bad. It was rather similar to the Tell Him performance from two weeks ago, and it had similar results. Very up-tempo, sexy outfit, playing with the audience. It wasn’t that good, but it wasn’t bad either. However, it really showed up the fact that her vocals are not that strong. She’s done well to get this far, and for her to get any further everything has to come together – good song choice, vocals are at least acceptable, high energy. She’s still in the hot seat. (One more thing. The judges were just about useless with her. They’re paid millions to comment on singing… and they said not one bit about her vocals. Are we missing something here?)

And now to the punditocracy’s favorite whipping boy… Sanjaya. Was it his best? Much as it pains it to admit it, that probably was. It was tolerable, and didn’t send us running in fright. Just cringing, which is an improvement. Of sorts.

Maybe it was the tongue stud: Once again, people are a little aghast at Gina’s elimination, especially since most believe that either Haley or Sanjaya should have gone first.

We’re disappointed that Gina went early, but it wasn’t all that much of a surprise. This week, she went for the low-key route again, but not nearly as well as last week. It was just okay. One trip out of your fan base’s comfort zone is fine, but two in a row is asking for it. It wasn’t the kind of performance that could get crossover votes – not on a night when Jordin was doing a similar slow ballad. She never had (or, perhaps, not enough) fanatical supporters who could save her from a bad night.

We’ve been saying all along she needs good song choices to truly shine. Well, song choices are constrained by the theme, and this was one that well and truly screwed Gina. As we mentioned above, it’s said that the song list was ridiculously limited – and if that was the case, no song choice would have been good. Simply put, Gina had to be at her absolute best – and maybe even more than that – in a genre that was not hers.

The King of all Hype: We have to say something about this whole “vote for the worst” phenomenon. It’s something that has been around Idol for a while, and with the walking comedy skit that is Sanjaya staying far longer than he deserves to it’s getting even more press than usual.

How much of the media coverage is being driven by Howard Stern’s sudden embrace is a good question. Setting aside the rich irony of Howard Stern trying to corrupt anything (does he want everything to be at his juvenile level?), the influence of any vote for the worst campaign is wildly overstated. It’s simply a question of numbers.

Idol gets around 30 million viewers every night and about the same number of votes. While Sirius doesn’t say how many people listen to Stern, their overall subscriber count is around six million. Will all of those people be listening to Stern? We doubt it; the overall audience is closer to one million. We’re being generous giving him that many listeners; top-rated cable channels have viewers of around one to two million. Despite his self-proclaimed status as the King of all Media, Howard Stern is not that big. He’s a big fish in a relatively small pool, nothing more.

It’s true that a relatively small number of people can disproportionately influence the results if they’re dedicated. If only hardcore voters did the voting, it would take about fifteen thousand people. (33 million divided by the 1200-2400 votes one can probably make over a two-hour period.) Still, though, what’s the possibility that the fanatical voters are dominated by Stern fans and other similar vote for the worst types? Consider that under any circumstances, vote for the worst voters will be outnumbered by people just as fanatical. We think it’s slim to none. The numbers just don’t work.

Consider, too, that the actual number of voters is far higher than the lowest estimate of fifteen thousand. While the number of people who cast votes for two hours straight is probably just in the thousands, the overall voters is much larger – maybe even a million. After all, with around thirty million voters, if just 3% decide to vote, all the one million voters would need is a few minutes. And few of those types will be vote for the worst types; they’d be the more “casual” viewers, not as locked into a contestant or idea as the hardcore fans or supposed worst voters are.

Both Vote for the Worst and Howard Stern are damnably good at promoting themselves, but claiming “credit” for keeping Sanjaya on is insane. There are good reasons why Sanjaya is still around and some of the others aren’t. We do that every week here; and no fancy “campaigns” is necessary. A little clear thinking – about both the contestants and the numbers – is enough explanation.

On vacation: Maybe it’s because it’s Holy Week for Catholics and this the entire Philippines (where Idol Guy Central is located) is on vacation, but the birds didn’t drop any numbers for us today. Still, we think the bottom three is (reasonably) accurate. Phil has not been consistent and Haley is… Haley. No voting powerhouse either. We’re pretty sure, though, that the “top 3″ wasn’t. Lakisha in the top 3? We don’t think so.

An update: Since we first posted this, this week’s numbers fell into our lap. So our sources weren’t on vacation after all, it seems. The “official” ranks this week are:

1. Melinda
2. Sanjaya
3. Chris
4. Blake
5. Jordin
6. Lakisha
7. Phil
8. Haley
9. Gina

Sanjaya placing second is, well, nothing short of amazing. That kind of support he’s getting would be admirable… if it was for someone who could actually sing. We have to wonder what this means about his chances of making the final four.

Chris and Blake are doing better than we thought they would. Because their styles are somewhat similar, though, we wonder when vote-splitting will start to affect either one of them. Jordin… what will it take for her to end up in the top three? She’s far too good just to be fifth. Lakisha is right where we thought she’d be – and the upcoming themes (Latin next week, country after that) might spell trouble for her.

What can you say about a show like this week’s? It wasn’t outrageously bad, but you can’t say it was good either. We’re actually at a bit of a loss for words – it’s hard to get excited over a night that was thoroughly and completely average.

The best of the night was, once again, Melinda. Is anyone really surprised? Technically, she’s got everyone else beat, and you can even make a decent argument she’s one of the best ones in American Idol history. She has both an incredible amount of raw talent and the knowledge of how best to make use of it. Of course, it helps that she’s not straying much from her comfort zone. How will she do when she’s brought out of it? We don’t know, but it won’t matter. The really good singers in every season can afford to have one or two bad nights. Melinda will be no exception. Her chances of making it to the finale? We’d be honestly shocked if she doesn’t. Any other season she’d run the risk of being locked to her genre, like Chris Daughtry was – but this year she’s so above and beyond the rest of the field that won’t happen.

If Melinda is the star, then Lakisha is the understudy. Melinda does an upbeat Donna Summers song, Lakisha does the same thing. It was good, perhaps bordering on great. However, she doesn’t have the complete package, and she hasn’t improved that much since we first saw her. To make matters worse, she’s even more genre-locked that Melinda. She should be safe… for now. As it stands, however, she will probably not make the final four. She’s in the same boat Stephanie was before. What can she do that Melinda can’t do as well, or better?

For the rest of the girls, it came down to choices. Gina chose a good song and sang it well. Just as importantly, she showed off the one thing Idol rewards: versatility. Before this week, we didn’t know if Gina could do anything but be a good rocker. Now we do, and it’s clear she can. She still needs to make good song choices – she doesn’t have the vocals to force through a bad one and make it sound good. To her credit, though, she’s been doing well in the song choice department of late. She actually has a good chance of ending up in the final four if she keeps this up.

Haley and Jordin both made very bad song choices. My knock on Haley has always been she tends to pick big, ambitious songs. True Colors isn’t really one, but she tried to turn it into one anyway. Why does she keep doing this? It hasn’t turned out well for her before. There’s a word for doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting a different result: insanity.

Jordin… well, where do we begin? Gwen Stefani was rightly surprised she chose that song. It’s not a song that shows off what someone can really do. “Highly stylized” is really doublespeak for needing a ton of magic in the studio to work right. That’s not what you want in a live show like Idol. We’re not usually big fashion critics, but we have to say this: her outfit didn’t work either. It looked like a naughty schoolgirl costume gone horribly wrong. Given that she made all the wrong choices, it’s a miracle it wasn’t a complete disaster. She used her abundant vocal talent to force her way through the whole performance – while it worked this week, she can’t really afford another slip-up.

On to the guys, the biggest surprise was Phil. It was easily his best performance all season, although that’s not saying all that much. He’s always had that big voice, now he’s showing some signs of learning control as well. One has to wonder if he can sustain his good showing, though, or whether he just lucked into a song and sound that fit him like a glove. If there’s one point we’ll never stop harping on, it’s song choice. Now we’ve seen Phil can really sing, but can he pick a good song again?

Blake… well, there’s no ifs or buts about him. It’s a very unique style that hasn’t been heard on Idol before, and it tends to divide people. You either like him or you don’t. It doesn’t work for us, but we can see the appeal. He’s the best of the guys, but he has the same problem as the second-tier girls (Gina and Haley): song choice is important for him. Toss in a fair amount of theme-bending to his toolbox and you have the ingredients for being the last guy standing. He has his style which he’s good at, and he’ll stick with it, through hell or high water. Where have we seen this before? Chris Richardson, meanwhile, is just plain uninspiring. His rendition of Don’t Speak reminded us of Jordin’s performance. It was another overly stylized song that relies on studio magic, and doesn’t translate well to a live show. Unfortunately, Chris doesn’t have Jordin’s vocal talents. It was just bad all-around. He’s skating by on his looks and performance skills.

That leaves us with the two laggards of the night. Chris Sligh, we’ll talk about a little later since he’s headed off to where booted Idol contestants go. Sanjaya is turning into a parody – the faux-hawk (or whatever the heck it was) was just the tip of the iceberg. If this is supposed to be some sort of joke, we’re not laughing. ESPN columnist Bill Simmons coined the Tyson Zone, where someone’s behavior is so outrageous that any rumor, no matter how shocking or bizarre, is believable. Well, here at the Idol Guy we’re officially proclaiming the Sanjaya Zone. There, someone’s singing and overall performance is so bad, any description of how bad it is, no matter how overblown or exaggerated, is perfectly believable.

Being bad by itself is not enough for induction. The Sanjaya Zone is the Hall of Fame of Idol ineptitude; one has to show consistent and long-lasting incompetence. Of course, Sanjaya has the (dubious) honor of being the first inductee. Any other nominations you, the reading public, have in mind?

Big hair does not equal big votes: what happened to Chris Sligh? We had him ranked as one of the top guys coming into the top 12. How did he fall so hard and so fast?

Chris Sligh was a classic case of not growing into the top 12 stage. Save for this week, he was okay – not good, not great, just reasonable – and that was never going to work. He also decided to try and move around the stage more – which is a good trick if you can still keep singing well. Unfortunately, he didn’t. Chris sometimes failed to connect with the audience at times – which is really surprising, since he seemed to have a lively personality when he wasn’t singing. It was almost like his singing and non-singing personalities weren’t talking to one another.

He also wasn’t able to get the kind of fan base that could protect him through rough patches. It’s unfair, but looks had a lot to do with that. He couldn’t do what someone like the other Chris or Haley can – get votes solely on the basis on physical appearances. And so he heads off to the Idol sunset.

What did she do and when did she do it?: Did Gwen Stefani actually do anything meaningful this week? All she seemed to do was stand there. Granted, there may not have been much time for anything else, but Gwen ain’t no Lulu. What was she doing “mentoring”, anyway? Oh, right, they want a big current name and she wanted to promote her tour. Of course. Where exactly did the contestants figure in this equation? Nowhere, which explains why the night was not good. Heck, she couldn’t even give us the benefit of a truly good performance on Wednesday night. What was that Ryan said? All performance? Translation: she can’t sing that well, and she’s a bad coach to boot. Next!

Own universe? Try own dimension: Simon Cowell, on Sanjaya: “I think you are in your own universe, and if people like you, good luck.”

Little birdie time: Like last week, the birdie dropped this information into our lap. Here’s how the top 10 votes turned out:

1. Melinda Dolittle
2. Blake Lewis
3. Lakisha Jones
4. Sanjaya Malakar
5. Chris Richardson
6. Gina Glocksen
7. Jordin Sparks
8. Phil Stacey
9. Haley Scarnato
10. Chris Sligh

No manipulation this time, and why should there be? Keeping Haley around as eye candy wouldn’t be such a bad thing to the minds of the powers that be. Certainly, they’d like her to outlast someone like Phil or maybe even Chris. They’d also like to put Jordin in the final four, too, but they reckon she doesn’t quite need it yet – unless she makes another bad song choice. She’s the biggest disappointment we have in this list; she wasn’t good this week, but based on her overall track record she should be much higher – around fourth or fifth. Gina should be higher as well.

It’s pretty dismaying to us how high Sanjaya is. He’s a lock for top six, and no matter where he finishes the statement of “worst contestant to make the top 9, or 8, or whatever) will be sadly true. Given his strength and consistency in the standings so far we can’t rule out a spot in the final four, either. What will it take for him to end up in the bottom half?

Next week’s theme should make for an interesting week. With Tony Bennett as our mentor, we’ll be seeing a lot of standards and songs that Simon would ordinarily call old-fashioned. Depending on how tightly or loosely it’s interpreted, it could make for an interesting night. It has the feel of Diana Ross nightredux all over it. One thing for sure: if people are waiting for Melinda and Lakisha to change, it won’t happen for at least one more week – not with another softball theme, as far as they’re concerned.