Before Haley Reinhart firmly established herself with songs like Bennie and the Jets and Rolling in the Deep, the word I used to describe the season was: frustration. Frustration with contestants who had not improved; frustration with lousy judging, frustration with a season that had not lived up to its full potential.

With Haley’s exit, that’s where I am again. Both Scotty and Lauren are good singers with potential, but I have a hard time caring about “potential” if it hasn’t been demonstrated on the Idol stage at least once. I need a showstopper moment from a serious finalist – at least once in a season of about three months. If you really are worthy of the finale, that should not be too hard.

Let’s do some checking of the What Not to Sing database. How many five-star performances do Scotty and Lauren have combined? *checks* One? Are you serious? *double-checks* Yes, only one.

That one statistic sums it up. Both Scotty and Lauren have managed, between them, exactly one performance that a good chunk of the Idolsphere considered a showstopper. It was Lauren’s version of Flat On The Floor – which I thought was well-done, but not exactly the most original song in the world. In short… while both Scotty and Lauren have largely avoided utter disasters, set audiences on fire they have not. They’re the epitome of the “safe” performer.

That sums up why I’m disappointed with this finale, and to a large degree the season as a whole. In terms of natural talent, they may well be one of the better pairs in the decade of Idol finales we’ve seen. In terms of growth, however, there’s no argument: they’re the worst pair ever, bar none. Scotty’s trademark line – baby lock the door and turn the lights down low – dates back to his audition. That’s unreal. It’s like the past three months or so never happened.

You also have to wonder what signal this sends to the Idol viewers at large. Country music is a popular genre, but no single genre dominates the American music landscape. Yet two singers from the same genre ended up in the finale. Based on Nigel Lythgoe’s own tweet, Haley only got around 25% of the vote. As one of my Twitter followers pointed out, that doesn’t quite mean the remaining three-fourths are all tweens and country voters, but never have two voting blocs combined to do such a number on everyone else.

More than that, though, I worry for future seasons. In Scotty and Lauren, we have the two contestants of this season who have made some of the most pedestrian, predictable, and safe song choices of this season. The contrast to Haley – who, as far as song choice is concerned, is everything the country pair is not – is stark. They got to the finale by playing safe. Is that what we’re going to see next year? As an Idol fan, I sincerely hope not. But Idol contestants are rational people: they see taking risks “rewarded” by criticism, safe songs rewarded with praise. Which will they pick?

Finally… what can I say about Haley. She rose from cannon fodder to become the most electrifying person on the Idol stage. That was something that’s never been done before, and frankly, may not be done for a while again – if ever. She delivered what will be, in all likelihood, this season’s standout vocal in House of the Rising Sun. And that sing-off… for a Haley fan like me, it doesn’t get better than that. It was appropriate that the song that put her on the Idol map was the one she chose to sing out to. Well done Haley, well done.

If people were looking for some sort of knockout blow to be delivered to someone’s finale hopes in the final three episode, they left disappointed. There was no single standout performance that elevated someone the way Heartless did, but neither was there really a performance that was so bad as to send them back home immediately, tail between their legs.

Round one clearly went to Haley. It was the gutsiest choice – by far – in the opening round. Led Zeppelin? For real? And, if one believes the account from Haley’s parents, it was members of the band that offered Haley use of their songs. If that is what really happened: wow. The performance itself: it proved that yes, Haley can rock out pretty damn well. Good vocals, amazing confidence and stage presence, and she recovered nicely from her trip on the stairs. Hopefully, her heels next week will be a touch lower to prevent accidents like that. Well done Haley.

Scotty’s Amaze wasn’t quite amazing, but it was decent. Judging and recapping Scotty has, honestly, become impossible. He does every song in so similar a way every week that people like me run out of words to describe what he does. He did what he does best here, with maybe some more vocally challenging parts. It was okay, but not much more.

Rarely has there been a song title that suited the performance less than Lauren’s pick of Wild One. Could you ask for a more un-wild performance? This was just… dull. She sang it well, but truth be told it wasn’t much of a challenge in that department so I can only give her so much credit.

Second round rankings are… the same as the first round. Rhiannon was a good song for Haley, but I can’t call it great. Haley’s best material has a touch of aggressiveness and anger in them. Something like this needs a different kind of intensity from her favored territory. I actually preferred the start – with its slow, haunting arrangement – rather than the middling midtempo portion which followed. It was good, but it didn’t feel special – not next to the other superior songs she’s pulled off before.

Are You Going to Kiss Me or Not was one of the better songs we’ve seen from Scotty, and it was – by far – the best of his night. For the first time, Scotty actually sounded halfway interesting. Vocal masterpiece? No, but it was entertaining – and wasn’t another warmed-over midtempo McCreery Special. Not bad at all.

Worst of the second round was Lauren. What was going through Jimmy Iovine’s head with this song choice? The song didn’t play to Lauren’s strengths at all; she’s at her best with fast songs that let her move around the stage. She does not do well with slower songs that expose her biggest problem: she can’t do emotions all that well. She can’t make you suspend disbelief the way good singers really can. It just felt… weird, I guess.

The judges’s picks… except for Lauren’s they just didn’t work. I Hope You Dance kept things simple: song choice that was perfect, Lauren sang it very well, and it avoided the kind of slip-ups that are a frequent problem for Lauren. Still, the KISS principle was at work here and delivered for Lauren. Well done.

Scotty did what he could with She Believes In Me, but the pick was just too… stupid to make any sense. I understand showing variety, but after the breath of fresh air for Scotty that was Thompson Square this was a big downer, and frankly left me bored. It never went anywhere for me.

For once, the judges got Haley’s You Oughta Know right: the choruses were great. The rest… not so much. She sounded like she was mumbling in parts, to be honest. Rarely have I seen a song where I liked some portions as much as I disliked the rest. Maybe a better arrangement would have suited her, but truthfully rearrangment is not part of Haley’s talents. She may be one of the best Idol has ever seen at picking songs, but she doesn’t have the ability to thoroughly transform a song the way David Cook or Kris Allen could. Still, the chorus was pretty good and hid at least some of the problems with the rest.

Overall, it was a good show, but the stresses of a hometown visit and three songs may have been a bit much. I don’t think it was anyone’s best night. Partially because of that, this was a draw for everyone involved: everyone has something to point to that they “won” the night, and everyone has something to hide that says they “lost” the night.

Semifinal pick: Let’s start off with the obvious: Scotty isn’t going home. Hell, chances are he’ll probably be the first one sent to safety. So it comes down to either Haley or Lauren.

Haley doesn’t quite have the momentum she had going into this week, but it’s not like she had an off night – but neither was it her best night. Would she have been better advised to take easier songs, especially with this week’s time-limited schedule? Probably, but Haley doesn’t believe in playing safe.

Lauren arguably gained a little momentum this week with a good performance in the last round, which may be the one that sticks most in people’s memory. On the other hand, she did have two more disappointing numbers.

Haley’s better night overall should be enough to send her to the finale, but here’s what seals the deal. For the “Country Idol” finale of Scotty/Lauren to happen, you basically have to accept that country or country-influenced votes make up around two-thirds of all Idol votes. That just doesn’t strike me as likely. Country music is liked by 36% of American adults, according to a 2008 study by the NEA. Even if you account for Idol‘s slightly “red” audience, which probably increases the number of country music fans in it, the math is still hard. There’s a reason vote-splitting is such a huge issue in the middle rounds. I don’t think it will be any different this time.

The pick: Lauren Alaina to go home.

What was that sound we heard when Haley was announced safe yesterday? It was the sound not only of Randy’s and J-Lo’s heads exploding, but the sound of the Idol bus running into the buzzsaw that was the angry – and motivated – fanbase of one Haley Reinhart.

We’ve had occasions when busing a contestant failed. Simon’s attempt to bus David Cook at the finale resulted in the former eating crow. Kris Allen got the bus treatment all season long, and he won. And yet… those didn’t have that one shining, singular moment where the judges were thinking, “oh, crap.” Haley Reinhart fans, remember this moment?

One word: priceless. Randy looked like somebody had stolen his trademark punchlines. Jennifer Lopez could have won a Razzie for Worst Faked Smile. Schadenfreude doesn’t get any better than this.

Take nothing away from James. I think this final four was, as a group, the most interesting in Idol history. Cutting someone was always going to be hard. You had four legitimately strong competitors, each with a compelling storyline, and a good variety in genres. Yes, Lauren and Scotty are both country, but I think that fact makes their differences more vivid: Scotty is a very old-fashioned throwback country guy, Lauren has a more modern feel that could easily cross over. This wasn’t like, say, Season 8, where you had someone who was awful still hanging around.

The top three week has brought out a lot of good performances. Bo Bice with In a Dream. Katharine McPhee with Over the Rainbow. David Cook with The First Time Ever I Saw Your Face. Kris Allen with Heartless. This is where they separate legitimate finalists from the pretenders.

I like Haley’s chances to get to the finale. The judges are going to try – again – to bus Haley. Of that, I have no doubt whatsoever. The judge’s song choice is going to be exceptionally silly. Don’t be surprised if J-Lo gives the pick and Randy slams it as “not a good choice”, or vice versa. It would be ridiculously blatant, but this group doesn’t do subtle. Maybe, if they’re exceptionally unsubtle, they’ll give her one of J-Lo’s songs! Steven will, almost certainly, end up giving Lauren’s pick. So long as Haley does her part and sings well, the busing won’t work. Her fans are too alert – anger over her busing has not, and will not, go away.

Where Jimmy Iovine will go is tough to say… but he did get You and I cleared for Haley. I doubt he’d do that for somebody he didn’t like on some level. I feel reasonably secure that the bus will not come from Jimmy’s corner. As for contestant’s pick, Haley will go for another high-risk/high-reward song, Scotty will go safe with another midtempo country song, and Lauren… who knows.

Traditionally, the Idol top three consists of a favored duel with a third would-be interloper. This year is no different. I doubt there’ll be a final with two country singers. The Idol viewing and voting audience is just too diverse for a single genre to dominate like that. Lauren is the decided underdog here, but who knows. Upsets can happen.

If Reinhart-McCreery happens, I have one request for the producers. Or, failing that, the wider Idolsphere. Give us an epic promo to lead off the show. I’m not talking about the lame and cheesy ones we’ve seen before. They’ve even used the “boxing” analogy before, with poor results. What I want is the mother of all epic promo videos. Find the guys who make promo videos for Fox Sports. Turn them loose.  I would dearly, dearly, love to see what an epic-with-a-capital-E promo video for Idol would look like.

Who knew that you could bring Lady Gaga onto Idol and it would basically be forgotten? We ended up with an episode that caused the phrase “thrown under the bus” to fly around the Idolsphere and Twitter with such frequency, we ended up with a gigantic pileup. And rightfully so. It’s one thing to bus someone; sad as it is that’s part of the Idol experience. To do so so obviously and with so ineptly, well… no wonder people are unhappy.

I can’t say I was particularly thrilled by any of the “inspirational” songs. It produces trite song choices that usually backfire; and with one notable exception that was what happened here.

The best of the first round was Lauren. It was one of Lauren’s best performances this season. It was well sung, and it suited her quite well. Even then, however, it was just good. This is the top four. To have a good performance at this stage needs more than just singing well. It has to feel special. Lauren wasn’t able to do that. Still, given the messes that the rest made of the first round, I’ll give her some credit for executing well.

Next for me… Haley. I docked major points from James last week for getting carried away and letting the singing suffer. Something similar happened here. Haley got the emotion of the song right, but she did sound screamy in parts. It wasn’t particularly good, but not particularly awful either. The word I’d use is average.

The criticism, though… was woefully off-base. Song choice is critical for Haley, but I can see the logic to her pick. It’s very similar to the Lady Gaga pick last week: it gives her more room to play with the arrangement, and it minimizes comparisons to the original. Certainly, I’d prefer this kind of high-risk strategy to singing the same warmed-over material over and over again, which Jennifer would seem to prefer. As for Randy’s commentary, I will pretend it never happened. It was more of the same inanity with no point that he’s known for. I hear words that make sentences, but I see no meaning.

Scotty’s only 17, so I’ll give him some credit. I don’t think he was pandering. I think he legitimately meant well with his song choice. Would he have made it had Osama bin Laden not been killed so recently? I doubt it, but it wasn’t out of malice and pandering. The performance itself wasn’t so bad, but again: we’ve heard it so many times before. Of course you can sing well if you can only sing in such a limited way! This did nothing for me.

Worst of the first round: James. If you’re looking for pandering, singing a song of one of the judges definitely qualifies. It’s supposed to be an exciting song, but… it wasn’t. Fortunately, James is always a good enough performer to keep things entertaining. But fundamentally, this performance had a lot more sizzle than steak.

The second round was better, but not by a lot. Haley… we’ve seen pretend angry on the Idol stage before. Not this time. Haley was legit mad. The result… a vocal that was just a bit below House of the Rising Sun, but damn… it’s been a while since a performance that intense, that personal, has been on the Idol stage. That was the very definition of leaving it all out on the Idol stage. Easily the best song of the night. Well done Haley.

From then on, though… yikes. “Best” of the rest would be James Durbin, but honestly it was another performance with more entertainment and sizzle than, well, singing. Maybe at the tender age of 27 I’m an old-fashioned sort, but shouldn’t a singer actually be capable of… singing well? In the absence of props, choreography, and all that?

As for Lauren and Scotty… they both had cringe-worthy performances. The word is… awkward. The songs just did not fit the singers. Scotty was all over the place – literally and figuratively. Lauren again cribbed from the Carrie Underwood playbook… but that’s just not a comparison that favors her at all. Both of these performances were the musical equivalent of the five-year-old kid playing dressup. Given how yung Lauren and Scotty are, that’s not too far off either.

Overall, the music was mixed – some good performances, but an awful lot of recycled and humdrum ones. The “action” was dominated by what took place on the judge’s side of the table – again. Idolsphere to Nigel Lythgoe and 19E: this is what sunk recent Idol seasons. The clowns on the other side of the table took the spotlight away from the contestants. You’re back in charge, in large part, because of the disaster that resulted. Why are you letting this happen again?

Battle of the Faces: Quick question. Which was the better face of this week – Ryan’s when he heard Steven and Randy’s exchange over Haley’s first song, or Haley’s reaction to the blatant bus-throw, the “three-way tie”?

Talking back – why it might work this year: Normally, talking back to the judges is considered a death sentence on Idol. However, there’s one reason why I think this might not work this year: no Simon.

Rightly or wrongly, Simon Cowell had the one thing that any judge needs: credibility. Or, if you’d rather use a bigger word, gravitas. People took him seriously, even if they disagreed with what he said. When he bused someone, it was a believable bus. And it worked. (In later seasons, however, Simon lost credibility and his busing ability was not as reliable. Ask David Cook how effective Simon’s attempt to bus him in Season Seven went.)

This panel, though, has none of that. None. If they had just done their jobs at all earlier in the season, they’d have some credit with viewers if they said somebody sucked. They don’t. When it comes to criticizing the judges, after their utterly disgraceful performance last night, words fail me.

What are we to make of all the make-nice bits after Haley’s second performance? Somebody backstage realized that there are few things more powerful than a pissed off fanbase. All that does is awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve. Haley fans were already unhappy and her hot run of late got her enough fans to boot her clear of the pimped Lauren. This is not a fanbase to take lightly; they’re energized in a way that we never saw last year.

Nigel Lythgoe already said via Twitter that the top four got 70 million votes. That’s basically double what last year’s top four got. Even if you ignore last year’s disaster, that’s still higher than the Season 8 top four show. It’s a fairly healthy increase from last week as well. How much of that came courtesy of Haley fans and people just plain angry at the blatant busing?

Expect the unexpected with tonight’s boot: Here’s a list of distinguished Idol alumni. Tamyra Gray. LaToya London. Chris Daughtry. Allison Iraheta. What do they have in common? They all left in fourth place even when other contestants were noticeably worse that week. You can’t rule out a shocker at this stage.

As I said above, I am unconvinced that the very mild backtalk – if we can even call it that – that we saw from Haley will hurt her. She sang I (Who Have Nothing) well enough to rule the night. For two-song nights, so long as you generally have one excellent performance people won’t care so much about a stinker (which, even by harsh standards, Earth Song wasn’t.) I think she’s safe.

After her, the next pick would be Lauren. But again, I’m unconvinced either: best song of the first round, plus a natural bounce from her bottom two appearance last week. If she had stumbled this week, sure. But she did what she had to do, and did it pretty well. And she goes home for that? Color me unconvinced.

If there’s going to be a shock boot, look towards James. He hasn’t done particularly well of late, but the judges aren’t calling him on it. It’s possible that could cause his fans to be complacent. Lauren’s fans will be out in force after her bottom two stint last week. Haley’s fans are angry and motivated. Scotty’s fanbase is bulletproof. Am I talking myself into a shock boot. Maybe. But it’s not implausible, isn’t it?

The shocker: James Durbin to go home.