Idol results shows always feature plenty of highlights of the previous night. However… they may want to reconsider cutting back on that for future episodes. Thanks (again) to the presence of Jimmy Iovine, some reality got imposed on the proceedings. I don’t fully agree with him – I’m not nearly as onboard the Joshua train as he is – but he was far more grounded in reality than anyone in the judge’s panel.

If anything, though, it’s because Jimmy is the only person who has a real, vested interest in making sure somebody good emerges from any given season. The judges can keep blowing smoke up the contestant’s behinds all season long. If anything, they don’t want to appear to be the Simon-esque Bad Guy, so they have zero reason to be critical. (Unless you’re a girl who’s perfectly capable of doing Led Zeppelin. If you are, watch for the Wrath of Randy to fall on you.)

Jimmy, though, has to figure out what to do with the contestants after the show. He has to “keep it real” because he’ll be handling their post-Idol careers. There are some troubling signs in that area. Phillip Phillips had displayed his willingness to ignore all advice. It’s not just Phillip, really: this year’s competitors seem to be very set in their styles. That has its good aspects – in their niche, they can be truly exceptional. But this can be a problem once they leave the friendly confines of Idol and enter the professional music industry. Then it becomes very much a give and take process ideally. The last thing you want to do is fight a war with your label at the same time you’re trying to put an album together: but I could imagine just about everyone in this field doing just that. Worst case is somebody end up getting Bo Biced: the album doesn’t reflect the kind of music that is expected. There’s a very good chance of that happening with this season’s group.

It seems to be that with this crop of judges we are fated to have decent (not good) judging at the start of every season, but atrocious judging later on. As my friends at What Not to Sing noted about a month ago, there would come a point that the judges’s general uselessness at judging would overrule their generally good work at putting a semifinals group together. Something tells me that time will come sooner rather than later.

Speaking of a reality check

The most mystifying – and in its own way, annoying – feature of the voting this year – is the strong level of support for this year’s designated WGWG, Phillip. I don’t think he’s got a shot of winning – the talent level this year is just too strong. But it’s safe to say he will come far too close for comfort. It’s time to revisit the question of changing the voting system again.

I honestly don’t know why the producers are so afraid of changing the current voting system so much. Are they in the pockets of AT&T? Are they just used to doing it that way? I don’t know. But it’s clear that it has to change sooner rather than later: you cannot have a formula where you’ve got extraordinary female talent (especially compared to the guys) and it’s still a tossup that they will win. Colton winning would be a bad victory, but if Phillip won – it would be an even bigger disaster than Lee DeWyze winning.

My favorite solution to this has been simple: decrease the voting power of multiple votes from the same number on a curve. So say, for example, 100 text votes from the same number for one contestant would only be equivalent, to, say, 65 votes. If it were 1000, let’s say it would be only 400 votes. Other people have suggested that iTunes sales should be a part. That might work: and it’s not like you can buy the same single 1000 times. Even at around a dollar a song, that becomes real money pretty darn quick.

Whatever the case, changing the voting system should be on the table for Season 12. If it’s not, then we could be right back where we were after Season Nine – wondering how long Idol would last.

The Power Poll

1. Jessica Sanchez (Last week: 1)
2. Colton Dixon (Last week: 3)
3. Phillip Phillips (Last week: 4)
4. Skylar Laine (Last week: 5)
5. Elise Testone (Last week: 2)
6. Joshua Ledet (Last week: 6)
7. Hollie Cavanagh (Last week: 8 )

Elise goes back to the midcard with her bottom three stay. Skylar goes up a notch, but otherwise, no major changes in the rankings.

It’s Time

Much like Heejun last week, Deandre got as far as he should have on the merits. But I will give him some credit. He did improve as the season went on. That’s a rare thing. However, it was more a case of going from terrible to halfway decent. He did what he could, but in the end he was simply outgunned. The unwillingness of the judges to really criticize him may have given him trouble as well: I don’t think he ever realized how far he needed to improve to stay competitive. It was his time to go, simply put.

Gwen Stefani was a coach all the way back in Season Six of Idol. It was not that season’s shining moment. Six years later… well, nothing’s changed. Egad. Well, I suppose it can’t all go as smoothly as Personal Idols week.

It seemed to be that the real theme of the week was “What is the worst song choice you can make out of the entire 80s songbook?” More often than not, I was thinking out loud: of all the songs in the 1980s – and those covered in that decade – they chose THAT? Maybe the song list they had this week was really limited. Maybe they used up all their song choice skill points last week. I don’t know. We were spared any outright vocal disasters, but it was a painful two hours.

Let’s go over the solos in performance order. Deandre Brackensick made a relatively good song choice. He was clearly comfortable with the song, and it showed: this may have been his best performance to date. That said, “best for Deandre” has a very relative meaning. His best… still isn’t all that good, really.

Elise Testone… it seems to be that she only has two kinds of performances. She’s either brilliant… or rather mediocre. This was a case of the latter. The song just didn’t fit her – she was fishing in waters where I’d normally find Jessica, Hollie, or Joshua. Power ballads are not her strong suit. I understand the need to change it up after last week’s Led Zeppelin performance, but that doesn’t mean you have to go into areas which are not your strong suit.

One word can describe Phillip Phillips: unjudgable. As a recapper/analyst, I could use the same description every week. He picks a song. He yells/growls (Yowls? Grells?) his way through it, rendering it completely foreign from the original. Urgh. I give up.

As the season progresses, it seems to be that Joshua Ledet is going more and more out of control. Someone with his particular style is always going to be vulnerable to trying to hard. He started off well, but the latter half was not great. It was a classic example of oversinging that was at too many points, cringe-worthy. Yikes.

Jessica Sanchez had the right idea with going uptempo. Unlike her previous try, this try worked a bit better. It still had a distinctly artificial feeling – she just can’t change gears as naturally as someone like Elise can – but it was pretty good. Not great – it didn’t have the one “wow” moment that elevates songs from good to great – but it was one of the better songs of the night. Oh, and Randy’s namecheck on Whitney? It was a case of “too soon” for me. Show some respect for the dead.

At least Jessica can fake being an uptempo performer. Hollie Cavanagh… can’t. Not very well, at any rate. It all just felt stiff and unnatural. The singing was also below what I’ve come to expect from her. Jessica proved she’s not just a ballad singer. Hollie… didn’t. She’s in trouble.

If Skylar Laine was turning every song she touched into a country ditty, Colton Dixon is turning every song he touches into his own flavor of rock. (What flavor that exactly is, I leave to the music historians). Fortunately for him, he chose a song which lends itself to various styles – just take a look at the lengthy list of people who’ve covered it. Like just about everything Colton, it’s an acquired taste. It was decent, but I’d rate it no more than that.

Finally, the one really good solo performance of the night. As is frequently the case on Idol a bottom three stay was the catalyst. Skylar finally decided to come out of the country box and just straight up sing. She did pretty darn well. Perhaps Skylar’s best trait is how she’s able to connect with what she’s singing with – just about all the time. That was in abundant evidence with this song. Vocally, maybe it wasn’t as good a vocal as something Jessica or Hollie could do at the peak of their power ballad-ing powers. But it didn’t have to be. Well done.

As for the duets, half of them were pretty good. The other two… were strange.

Jessica and Joshua was a logical pairing. Pair up the two biggest voices on either gender. It was a good pairing, and it producing a good result. But Slow Ride – still the best duet performed on a performance night in Idol history – it was not. Elise and Phillip… well, Elise had to do the musical equivalent of swimming with an anvil tied to her ankle. She did well with her parts and there was some chemistry, which saved the whole thing.

Chemistry was something that was completely lacking with Skylar and Colton. It went absolutely nowhere. As for Deandre and Hollie… it was fun to listen to. Deandre got completely overshadowed, though. Maybe this would have worked as her solo performance, but as a duet… no.

Overall, it was – by a healthy margin – the most dismal finals episode this season has produced so far, and the musical gods willing, it will stay that way. It can only get better from here.

Oh, and can we ban Gwen Stefani from ever mentoring on Idol ever again? She was useless at her first try six years ago. It was even worse this time around. She is living proof that you can be a successful singer and still be a complete failure as a coach.

Conventional Wisdom? Don’t bet on it.

The Idolsphere’s conventional wisdom has it that the bottom three will be Elise, Hollie, and Deandre. The last two, sure, those are eminently believable. But Elise in the bottom three? Don’t be so sure about it. Yes, building a fanbase later on in the season is hard. But it’s not impossible – and two stellar performances in a row help. So her fanbase may not be as weak as conventional wisdom would have it.

Oh, and it’s also going to be a motivated fanbase. Not only do you have the “my Idol didn’t sing well, I must save her!” card out in play, you also have the “Randy dissed my Idol!” out. Frankly, if Elise’s fanbase doesn’t vote like mad under these circumstances… nothing can make them do that. Also, it’s not like the night was a complete vocal disaster there either. Yes, her solo was not great, but her parts of the duet were pretty good. It wasn’t a great night for her, but it wasn’t as bad as top 13 week.

So who’ll round out the bottom three? Look to… Joshua. This is right around the time that you have a shock boot. The judges buttered him up, which may cause his voters to relax just a little bit. Unlike someone like Jessica or Skylar, Joshua’s performance this week brought nothing new to the table. This all sounds like a recipe for potential trouble.

However… it’s still not enough for me to put him in more danger than Hollie. She needed to do what Skylar did – prove that she could go beyond her comfort zone and still be a good singer. She failed to do that. Which means…

Bottom three: Joshua Ledet, Deandre Brackensick, Hollie Cavanagh
Going home: Hollie Cavanagh

The top 9 results show was something of a mixed bag. A right person, Heejun, went home. (I say “a” instead of “the” because I would have been just as happy with a Deandre exit.) The person beside him also deserved to be in the bottom three (though probably not bottom 2). Hollie had confined herself to ballads ever since the competition began, and that never really sits well with Idol voters.

But Skylar, though… that was a surprise. But maybe it shouldn’t have been. Remember how I talked last week about growth arcs? Well, after I updated the numbers to reflect the overnight WNTS ratings, this is what I found:

It’s probably not a coincidence that the two lowest girls on that list were in the bottom three with Heejun. As to why Joshua didn’t join them, the reason is simple: he’s a guy. All other things being equal, girls will be at more risk.

The surprise isn’t so much that put Skylar at risk; so long as she kept up the arc she was on that was going to be a problem eventually. But I thought that the traditionally strong country vote would protect her for a few more weeks. After all, last year, it wasn’t until the final five that Lauren Alaina ended up in the bottom three – and Scotty McCreery was never there at all.

It may well be that Skylar is weaker among country fans than conventional wisdom would have it. I’ve seen some claims that Skylar isn’t all that well regarded among country Idol fans because she’s not particularly original, especially compared to her professed idol Miranda Lambert. If somebody better tuned into that particular community can tell us if that is the case, it would be appreciated. But it sounds plausible.

As for Hollie… there really is no surprise in why she’s in the bottom. If she sings another ballad next week, she might well be gone – especially given how surprisingly strong Deandre has been so far. Frequently, the so-called “shock boot” is someone who did very well at the start but stumbles later on. Hollie is doing a very good job of fulfilling that role. Hollie’s relative inexperience is probably not helping either: her reaction at some level is “sing harder!”, hence the choice of even bigger ballads like Jesus, Take The Wheel. I get the feeling that there’s going to be a very loud outcry when Hollie does leave. In some ways, it’ll be deserved: but don’t call it a “shock”.

As for the top.. it’s very interesting, too. Elise’s number is insane, there’s no other word for it. In large part, that’s because her last performance was so out of this world – and she had a fairly dismal outing that, in effect, boosts the slope of her rating arc. The first factor is also at work for Phillip Phillips. Still, it’s clear that you have a group that not only sings well, but is able to do so remarkably consistently. That could be your potential final four right there, although one wonders how long P2 can sustain his rating.

The WNTS study also suggests what might happen to the rest of the field. Anything below -2.0 is dangerous: but Skylar, Joshua, and Hollie are all well below that. Unless they step up their game, they might be subject to premature boots. Deandre is consistent… but consistent in a way that no one really wants to see.

The Power Poll

1. Jessica Sanchez (Last week: 1)
2. Elise Testone (Last week: 4)
3. Colton Dixon (Last week: 3)
4. Phillip Phillips (Last week: 5)
5. Skylar Laine (Last week: 2)
6. Joshua Ledet (Last week: 7)
7. Deandre Brackensick (Last week: 8 )
8. Hollie Cavanagh (Last week: 6)

As you’d expect, Skylar and Hollie fall down the rankings due to their bottom three stay. Elise moves up thanks to her record of outstanding performances. Jessica remains at the top of the field.

Not TooBad, Really

Heejun Han got as far as he should have on the merits. He’s not a bad singer, but he was just woefully inexperienced and never really managed to improve much over the season. His biggest asset was his personality – but it didn’t really help that he kept singing slow ballads which did nothing to help him show that off. (Singing upbeat with Billy Joel was a good idea, just not well done.) He got as far as he ought to have – no more, no less.

The consensus in the Idolsphere seems to be that tonight was a very good night as far as the singing was concerned. However, there was one annoying bit for us: why so many ballads? More than half of this field chose to do a ballad this week. Oh well. In general, though, I will agree that the singing this week was, in general, top-notch. What separated the good from the bad this week was song choice and song arrangement.

Best of the week? Not even close. As many (including us) predicted, Elise was doing Led Zeppelin. And there’s no other way to say it: she owned Whole Lotta Love. It was better than the Adam Lambert version (which I didn’t like all that much anyway). She can sing lights out. She’s an effortless performer. She never lets the theatrics get in the way of the music. You could not ask for a better performance on Idol – and doing it with Led Zeppelin? That’s just added style points right there. Absolutely, completely, well done. (Oh, and that little tease of Dreams makes me want to see Elise do it sometime this season. And it’s a song that’s never been done on Idol. Elise/Stevie duet for the finale, anyone?)

I’m of very mixed minds about Jessica Sanchez. Vocally, it was her best effort. It was subtle when it needed to be, powerful when it needed to be. In terms of changing up a song, it’s up there with Kris Allen retooling Heartless. But there’s one elephant in the room that has to be addressed: save for Turn The Beat Around, we have yet to see Jessica do an upbeat song. With such a wide theme, was this really the best choice? I’m not so sure. Still, she did what she set out to do brilliantly.

Skylar Laine doing Miranda Lambert was… utterly predictable. Without having to “force” a song into her genre, the song fit her perfectly and she was able to bring all her abilities as a performer to bear. If there was a downside to this, it’s the fact that this version is a little too close to the original. It’s one legitimate rap against Skylar: she’s great at forcing songs into Skylar, but so far she hasn’t been as successful at putting her own stamp on songs vocally.

Having such a wide theme definitely helped Phillip Phillips: much like Skylar did before him, he found a song which suited him perfectly. There wasn’t really anything new in this package that we haven’t seen before – but it was done in a way that made the whole package better. We know exactly what to expect from the P2 package; and to be fair it works in limited doses. With a less favorable theme, it doesn’t work nearly as well as it did this week.

Without You should have been a perfect fit for Joshua – and while it was a good fit, it wasn’t perfect. In a very real way, Joshua overdid it: there were enough vocal gymnastics and overcooked gymnastics that it took away from the natural flow of the song. It’s almost like it was about the vocal additions rather than the story of the song. It wasn’t poorly sung – not by any means – but it wasn’t as good as it ought to have been. It was okay at best.

The good about Colton Dixon’s performance: it was as honest and sincere as anything he’s done so far. The vocals themselves… were okay. Not great, but you’re never going to get that out of Colton. Honestly, though, whether people will like thing song or not depends on whether they like these sort of religious songs. It doesn’t bother me at all, but I don’t think it adds anything either.

Hollie Cavanagh ought to learn the first rule of holes: when you’re in one, stop digging. She needed to get out of the Ballad Ghetto; instead she picked one of the biggest ballads Carrie Underwood has ever performed. Even within the Carrie songbook there are better choices – she could go uptempo with Before He Cheats or Last Name; if that was too drastic a change maybe she could pick something like Don’t Forget To Remember Me or Temporary Home. Hollie has enough vocal chops to sing just about anything well, but at no time did it feel original or authentic.

I’ll give him credit: that was Heejun Han’s best performance to date on the show. He has a decent enough voice – but he’s ridiculously inexperienced. Not only that, this season is ridiculously loaded. Through no fault of his own, he ended up bringing a spork to this fight when most people brought more guns than John Rambo. He did what he could, and you can’t ask for more than that.

Sometimes I Cry must have described how people at home reacted to Deandre Brackensick’s performance. He’s in love with his falsetto, which, sadly, is sometimes painful to listen to. Oh, and the eye-effing? That was just ridiculous. Overall, the word to describe this was: no.

Overall, though, it was as good an Idol episode as you’re ever going to get. Whole Lotta Love is going to be mentioned in future lists of “best Idol performances of all-time”. Even the “mistakes” were about song choice rather than bad singing. This year’s crop of contestants have an excellent idea of what kind of artists they are and want to be; given the opportunity to do so they are very capable of picking songs that play to their strengths.

The worst part of the episode had nothing to do with the contestants; it was the maddening return of the judging panel to their earlier habits of praising everyone. Still, it was – no doubt – the best episode of the season to date.

To Save Or Not To Save

If there was ever a week where you’d think the save would come into play, it would be this week. It might well be the case – when the save was played in Season 9, it was at the top 9 stage. Last year’s save was even earlier. However, I’m more skeptical: there is still a sizable gap between the bottom group (Heejun and Deandre) and the rest of the field. Let’s put this in its proper context: all three previous save recipients had at least one 80 or better What Not to Sing rated performance at the time they were saved. Between them, Deandre and Heejun have exactly one performance over 50. (Take note that as of this writing, numbers for this week aren’t out yet – but I don’t expect them to poll that well either.)

That sort of tips my hand who I expect the bottom three to be: Heejun, Deandre, and Hollie. This time, I expect Deandre to go home: simply put, he was the worse of the two, and probably a weaker fanbase as well. It’s time.

Bottom three: Deandre Brackensick, Heejun Han, Hollie Cavanagh
Going home: Deandre Brackensick