Which leads me to the second problem: the audience can only be entertained so much with performances that have similar feels to them. Knowing your musical identity and sticking to it is great and all, but from an entertainment standpoint, it can get boring if done ad nauseum.

And lastly, there’s no growth amongst competitors, This is why as the season progressed, I was inching towards Hollie’s way over Jessica’s. Growth is what keeps people compelled to back you up, IMO. Another case in point: Haley Reinhart.

So where do we go from here? My guess is the time that this epoch collapses under its own weight is when (a) the show has a lot more White Guys With Guitars than ever or what-have-you, or (b) the shows have a boring and dragging feel to it thanks to the contestants staying in their respective lanes.

And what I think will be the next type of contestant to win: Someone who realizes that Idol is not only a singing competition but rather, a reality TV show. These kinds of folks would be savvy enough to know how to market themselves as not only singers but as “personalities with immense musical talent.” They’ll be doing whatever they can to balance having a personality people can get behind and having musical talent people will take notice. The glimpse of that kind of contestant: Colton Dixon. In short, people who know how to play the Idol game.

I might also agree that the new philosophy allowed Scotty to remain in the same place for the entire season without being called out for failing to take any risks. He didn’t experiment in any way. He was the perfect example of the failings of the epoch you have described.

I have to disagree is with your characterization of Phillip though. I think Phillip played a perfect Idol game, mostly from Kris Allen’s handbook. It required him to take risks, any of which could have been a disaster and some which really were. Phillip changed songs that were familiar (slowing down “In The Air Tonight,” turning “The Letter” into an unrecognizable hash), chose a few pop rock songs that would please the viewers even when they would not please the judges (Maroon 5 and Matchbox 20), did an acoustic version of an R&B pop hit, sang an artistic song for the NPR-loving crowd, and sang a song straight (“We’ve Got Tonight”). Then he topped every previous Idol contestant by singing an Idol coronation song that actually sounds like the music that people listen to right now. I’m not sure what more Phillip could have done with his voice and the limitations of the show.

Phillip’s perfect game included a perfect set of intangibles as well – humility, attractiveness, exposure to viewers through audition package, sense of humor, memorable loving parents, serious illness, and friendships with other contestants. He managed to check every box on the intangible list.

So, I have to disagree that Phillip stayed the same all season. He didn’t change his clothing style, but neither did Kris Allen, so that can’t really be considered a post-Simon effect.

On a side note, when the quality of the singers this year seemed so much higher than past years, I don’t understand why many of the people that I know could not get excited about any particular contestant.

Thanks for your analysis! It’s always interesting.

Think the Diva overload season 3 that led to things like a Fantasia-Latoya-JHud bottom three, or the singer-songwriter centric season 9. It’ll be interesting to see if this sort of thing happens next year.

I do think risk-taking can still help you on Idol. Skylar’s decision to do “Stay With Me” on top 24 night set her apart from the other country girls, and she continued to defy expectations with song choices to some extent. Elise took a few risks too, possibly a fatal one on “Bold As Love,” but she was in continual trouble and pretty much had to roll the dice. And besides, she did finish sixth, an excellent finish for a female who isn’t an ingenue, so it’s hard to argue that the voters punished her for her boldness. But I would agree the top four rarely ventured outside their comfort zones, and that the judges are a key reason why (recall that when Jessica struggled some on “Turn the Beat Around,” Steven essentially told her she should only ever sing ballads).

I also don’t think one can discuss what works on Idol without mentioning the tyranny of the guitar players. One can make too much of the WGWG thing–Cook really was the best in S7; even though he probably won because of an anti-Adam vote, Kris was still quite good; and Scotty could have been a winner in any epoch, besides which his occasional guitar playing was incidental to his appeal. But when folks as patently unqualified as Lee DeWyze and Phillip (easily the weakest vocalist in the top 6) end up winning, it’s safe to assume performers like them are the only types who can win Idol.

This wouldn’t be a problem if Idol was still producing guaranteed chart-toppers, but it’s not happening with the non-country WGWGs, and Idol ratings are starting to reflect the loss of interest from those more interested in current music, and not warmed-over coffeehouse stuff.

Here’s hoping the future careers of Jessica, Joshua, Skylar, and yes, even Phillip are handled with more care and good taste than they got while on the show. See you in 2013.

Personally, I really enjoy his style. I would like to see him play in a small club- from what I’ve read about his health, I think he’ll be a much more dynamic singer once he’s had his kidney surgery, but even so- I like listening to him. I think the whole “likeability factor” was very damaging to both Jessica and Elise- even Colton. Colton came off as a pretty confident guy, bordering on arrogant. That just doesn’t play with America. I’m confident that the likeability was a big reason why Hollie stayed so long. She was a NICE girl. I have to laugh at the articles I’ve read claiming racism was to blame. Please. That’s a lame cop out for a 16 year old that wasn’t quite ready for it anyway. She’ll get there.

Anyway, it was fun reading your recaps- I can’t believe you didn’t comment on the cheesefest we were subjected to last night via, the staged proposal, the Fantasia/Mantasia screech off, Jessica trying to outsing crazy faced Jennifer Holiday, A NEIL DIAMOND MEDLEY? Skyler’s outfit? Jlo lip synching to her “world wide hits”? Steven Tyler having a seizure on stage? It was cheese on cheese for 2 hours and 6 min. BTW- I REALLY hope Jlo goes away and they get like, an actual judge who doesn’t subject us to her “talent” every week.

Only on American Idol.