Oh boy. To say the Idolsphere is not too happy with the results is an understatement. I have yet to find a single person who thinks the results made any sense. It’s understandable – with the exception of Todrick, I don’t think any of the boots were justifiable on any level. Explainable, maybe, but this was not the way things should have gone.

Our theory as to why this is the case? Idol voters tend to come in two flavors. Power voters tend to be heavily committed to either one contestant or one genre; these are the voters who hit the phones hard and wear out their thumbs texting in votes.

On the flip side, you have casual voters. These are the types who’ll throw in a relatively small number of votes each night, largely based on merit week-to-week. While not nearly as powerful on an individual basis as power voters, there tend to be a lot more of them. Idol results can be determined by the balance of casual-versus-power voters – something that was seen to good effect last year.

Let’s look at how had the four have performed since the top 24. This isn’t based on what we thought, but on the more-or-less consensus from the Idolsphere.

• Katelyn Epperly – okay in the top 24, good in the top 20, not-so-good in the top 16
• Lilly Scott – okay-to-good in the top 24, good in the top 20, okay in the top 16
• Todrick Hall – awful in the top 24 and top 20, okay in the top 16
• Alex Lambert – awful in the top 24, good in the top 20, okay this week

Two things stand out: none of this foursome had been really good this week. At best, they were okay, but (Todrick excepted) they’d all done better. There’s also some consistency issues in this group – particularly with Alex and Katelyn.

In normal circumstances, however, there should have been enough voters – both casual and power ones – to keep them in. What happened?

Casual voters first. I suspect that one of two things happened: either they’re not voting in large numbers so far, or the casual votes are going towards the elite contestants (Big Mike, Siobhan, Mamasox) overwhelmingly. (Note that it’s possible for both to be true.) Either way, that was a problem for the rest of the field. Without casual votes to keep them in, it would then be down to their ability to attract power voters.

However, the four contestants had issues there as well. First off was consistency: the closest to “consistent” was Lilly, but she misfired rather badly this week. Even when they were good, it’s debatable whether they really got people to support them. Lilly and Katelyn may have been a touch too… quirky to win over power voters in meaningful numbers.

There’s a flip side to this, though, and it’s as much a guess as anything else. What if the power voters have already made up their minds? It’s almost like the fanbases are already solid – no one (except, probably, the elite contestants) have had any luck in that department. How else can you explain the fact that despite the fact they’ve, well, not done very well, the pre-semis fanbases of Katie, Andrew, and Tim are all intact? I’ve never been a fan of the “blame the tweens” movements that spread every time a bad Idol boot happens, but this may be one time that does apply.

I can hear the complaints now, though. But Leo, that explains how the four who left got less votes but who’s voting for, say, Paige? Or Aaron? Or Andrew? Or Katie?

Andrew and Katie fall under the “fanbases are already solid” rule. They had good support before the semis began, and don’t seem to have lost that much so far.

Paige and Aaron both got lucky in one significant way. Neither was splitting votes with anyone else. Paige was the last big-voiced, glory-note-loving “diva” singer left. Similarly, Aaron was the last too-talented-for-his-age-and-innocent-looking teen, along the lines of a David Archuleta. (By contrast, Lilly was splitting votes with Didi, Lacey, and maybe a little with both Katelyn and Crystal. There are a lot of quirky girls in the field this year.) It’s hard to know just how many votes those factors alone bring in, but it’s clear: that was enough. Particularly if the vote totals are as skewed towards the elite contestants as I think they are this year.

Of course, this is all essentially all informed speculation. Or, as someone else would call it, guessing. Without knowing the exact vote totals, there’s no way to prove whether I’m right, or just trying to find reason in irrational Idol voting patterns. Here’s one thing to keep in mind, though: if I’m right, expect the voting patterns until around the top… four or six to be very wild.

Whatever the case, everyone should buckle in. It looks like this season is going to be an interesting one. Whether for its the right or wrong reasons remains to be seen.

This entry was posted on Friday, March 12th, 2010 at 9:00 am and is filed under Season Nine. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.