To say that the Idolsphere is in shock over Siobhan’s exit would be… an understatement. Certainly, nothing else like it has been seen this season.
And yet… well, I’m not 100% surprised. I had Siobhan in the bottom two, after all. I suspected that her fanbase was weak, but even I didn’t think it was quite that weak.
First, we have to answer one question: was Siobhan really as strong as people thought she was? Conventional wisdom has it that she was a strong contestant who could go far.
Me… I’m not so sure. I firmly believe that to a large degree, the Idolsphere – both Big Media and New Media alike – over-ranked Siobhan. We all saw the amazing voice, the ability to hold a high note. We made the comparison to Adam Lambert and thought that, like Adam, Siobhan could get away with having very divided opinions.
The trouble is, simply, that Siobhan wasn’t as good as everyone thought. In hindsight, the good analogue to Siobhan wasn’t Adam, but Carly Smithson. Both girls had immensely powerful vocals, but sometimes were lost without the glory notes. They were both early frontrunners, but stumbled later on.
Now, as my friends at What Not to Sing pointed out, this was the first time that someone in the pimp spot went home in a single-song, single-boot week. Since the Idol PTB never give the pimp spot to a weak contestant, that must mean that she was a strong contestant who went home too early, right?
Not necessarily. Keep in mind that the Idol PTB are just as capable of misreading the American public. It’s much more likely that the producers misread the situation as badly as everyone else. They may have believed their own hype and thought Siobhan was safe until, say, top four.
In any event, this isn’t really a big shocker. It’s at best a mild surprise – Big Mike’s fanbase is stronger than I thought, but I admit that his save earlier in the season played a role in that line of thought. This is nothing more than a case of a former frontrunner with a big voice, who hasn’t developed her repertoire outside of that big voice, stumbling when the weaker finalists have been removed.
Not A Surprise, Part 2: Similarly, Casey James ending up in the bottom two shouldn’t be a surprise. He’s the only contestant splitting votes with anyone else – Crystal’s frontrunner status protects her that way, and Big Mike and Aaron are both alone in their genres. On the other hand, Casey and Lee share a lot of similarities, so I suspect there’s a lot of vote-splitting going on here.
For Casey to make the finale, he has to hope that Lee has a major off-day and he can capitalize. In a Lee-Casey-Crystal fight, it’s hard to see how Casey could come out ahead.
I took it the opposite way regarding TPTB’s estimation towards Siobhan’s fanbase. I took at is they knew she had a weaker fanbase than expected/perceived which is why they stuck her close to the end every week. She was backloaded in the performance order moreso than any other contestant. She went in the 2nd half in 8 of her 10 performances, last 3 times, in the last 3 slots 6 times, and only first once. Whereas someone like Lee has been frontloaded in his performance order. He’s gone last twice, first 3 times, in the 1st half in 5 of his 10 performances, and in the last 3 in 3 of his 10 performances.
One would think with the praise Lee receives he’d be in the back half more often than not. They tend to give the people they like good performance slots. I took it as maybe Siobhan’s fanbase wasn’t as large as they had hoped so they continually gave her great singing positions in order to gain more casual votes and keep her around longer than her engrained fanbase could. And also, maybe they stack Lee in the beginning because he’s getting enough votes to sustain the early singing position.
Weebs,
You are undereestimating Idol. Their problem this season has been fivefold. Never been this many problems. 1) The show is completely formulaic and people are catching on and tuning out. Idol hasn’t changed anything in the formula. 2) Simon is leaving and has already checked out mentally. It shows each week. 3) Ellen hasn’t provided the pizzaz they hoped it would in a fourth judge, or any offset to a clueless Kara. Anyone can say “pitchy’ or “I like the way you look”. 4) The overall level of talent was mediocre to begin with, no one except Ashley and Siobhan had a range of more than five notes, and the talent has made the worst of a bad situation by continually choosing rotten songs. It’s like Barry Manilow continually choosing hip hop. 5) Siobhan HAD to go last to maintain any excitement in the show for the time period. If it were Didi rather than Siobhan, listeners would have been tuning out about ten minutes into the show. Why would anyone tune in to this show now? It’s like a bad dream every week. Bowersox and Kelley singing the songs of Frank Sinatra. OMG! pass the smelling salts! Idol has a huge problem.
I also think that Siobhan’s fanbase was overestimated.
I think she had a solid fanbase at the beginning of the season – which she lost due to *many* weeks of being mediocre at best. Fans will stick through a bad performance or two… but not 6.
Siobhan wasn’t overrated, she was underrated. The ratings have fallen drastically since her elimination. Go to the official American Idol site then seek how Posts, you’ll find she has double the posts (approx. 43,000) of the next contestant, Lee.
Read the comments, most are in her favor.
She should have been in the final 2 or 3 if not the winner.
Simon and Kara were cruel to her.
Yes, Siobhan was “all that”! A star!