Officially, American Idol isn’t a scripted show. Idol Gives Back, however, might as well be as carefully choreographed and scripted as any sitcom. The guest stars, the contestants in white, the tragic videos… it’s the same script every year.
I’ve never been a huge fan of the whole IGB concept, but I’ve said enough on that so I won’t repeat myself. So, let’s instead look at what the remaining top six need to do to get into the finale.
Note that I said “get into the finale”, not win. Let’s be brutally honest. Crystal is going to be the hardest frontrunner to beat in Idol history. Harder than Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood, or even (more recently) David Cook.
A lot of that is due to being Crystal a naturally gifted singer who’d do well in any season, but her ability to curbstomp everyone else into submission is partially due to the weakness of the rest of the field. It’s hard to see a scenario where anyone else could win.
The historians would object: what about Melinda Doolittle? Wasn’t she supposed to win Season Six too? Well, there’s one key difference. Melinda was against at least some opponents who could put up a challenge. This year? It’s like sending a World Series-contending team against a marginal AAA-level minor league team. Crystal is pretty good, but it’s not like her competition is that hard either.
With that in mind…
1. Crystal Bowersox
The main problem Crystal has to face is complacency – i.e., avoid a Melinda Doolittle. It’s something that’s really out of her hands – she can only sing well every night and give her fans a reason to vote for her. She can’t wring necks through the screen and get people to pick up the phone.
One advantage Crystal does have over Melinda is she’s doesn’t have the old-fashioned image (so far as she had one). Crystal is artistically, firmly a creature of the New Idol era. She has a firm idea of what kind of artist she is, and picks songs/rearranges them to suit that. The formula for her is essentially “keep doing what you’re doing.”
2. Lee DeWyze
Lee is probably the best-positioned of the rest of the pack to reach the finale with Crystal. And lose. To be fair, he is doing some things right: he’s picking the right songs, and singing them, well, at least competently.
What Lee needs is simple: emotion. He sings his songs well enough, but you don’t get the conviction, the emotion that you get from Crystal, or other frontrunners in the past. His consistency is actually pretty good.
The trouble is, fundamentally, Lee is a midcard performer that’ll be pushed into the finale because there’s no one else. He’s a slightly stronger mid-card performer than usual, but let’s not kid ourselves: he’s not Elliott Yamin or Allison Iraheta. He needs to prove he’s a legitimate contender to even threaten Crystal: he needs to improve week to week, and be consistent doing so.
3. Siobhan Magnus
Every season has a frontrunner who loses their way. Siobhan is it this year.
Her problem is two fold: bad song choices leading to bad singing. The fundamental diagnosis is actually fairly common to power singers like Siobhan: they have a powerful voice, rely on it too much, start screaming, and lose the plot.
The solution for Siobhan is actually fairly simple: stop oversinging and screaming. Figure out just what she wants to sing, and concentrate on that. Stop trying to be “different” for the heck of it; she seems to be falling prey to a little of that. (Certainly, her outfits have been on the kooky side of… unique.)
4. Casey James
Lee and Casey are something of twins. Their issue is the same: neither is singing particularly emotionally. Unfortunately, Casey has a separate issue: he’s not singing particularly well, either.
Casey has a lot of work to do. First, he really needs to differentiate himself from the pack. He can do that, by for one, singing well. Casey has not really had a truly standout performance recently. He’s just there: very mediocre and average.
The other issue is similar to Lee: sing with emotion. He’s shown signs of it, but he’s not doing it consistently enough to matter.
5. Michael Lynche
Big Mike has the biggest personality out of all the contestants left. The trouble is… he can’t sing consistently. He’ll do well one week, screw up the next… that is not a formula for ending up in the finale.
Now, Big Mike actually has something of an advantage over the likes of Casey and Lee – if he can sing a song well, he can express emotions pretty well. Unfortunately, he’s been digging a hole for himself of late. It might be too late.
6. Aaron Kelly
Aaron’s not going to make it to the finale, period. He is just too raw, inexperienced, and not that good. At this stage in the competition, he’s primarily a “spoiler” for the likes of Casey and Big Mike.
I agree I just can’t see anyone losing to Crystal at this point, I’m not saying she’s 100% going to win, since voter’s complacency and/or front runner backlash might really cut her Idol journey short. And regardless of her somehow ‘unworthy’ opponents, I honestly think she is worthy enough to be ranked alongside the Idol greats.
I’ve loved Crystal’s vibe and talent from her first Hollywood Week rendition of “Natural Woman” and I look forward to buying her songs for years to come. From a competition standpoint, everything has fallen into place for her to run away from the field.
The early dismissals of Katelyn Epperly and Lily Scott meant she wasn’t competing with similar guitar-strumming women singers. Those voters may not have jumped immediately to Crystal, but fans who lean towards their type of music only have had Crystal to support.
Most importantly, Crystal has been pretty awesome every single week. She is at or near the top of the class each evening. This certainly builds a fan base as other singers falter. But I really think the casual viewers who only watch American Idol a few times before the big finale, will have seen her be pretty great during any show they have caught sporadically. Also, her name recognition in the last month has extended beyond Idol watchers due to publicity around her early illness and the story that she might have quit the show. Nearly every web portal page MSN, Yahoo, etc., has had a blurb or picture of Ms. Bowersox in the last month.
While Crystal may have been a long shot earlier because the didn’t fit the Idol Diva mold and might not be a naturally commercial pop singer, she has become more and more likely to be singing some awful Kara DiGuardi song in May.
I agree that Crystal is clearly the most consistently good and best-reviewed singer this year and American Idol would be proud to have her as their winner. However, according to the site you referred to last week, What Not to Sing, only twice has the most highly rated singer for the season won. Kelly Clarkson and David Cook were those winners. In many years, the most highly rated of the final 2 singers did not win.
What we get down to here is each singer’s avid fan base. Also who will pick up each cast off singers fans? I think their is a lot of overlap among Tim’s, Aaron’s, Lee’s and Casey’s fans. Now that Tim’s gone, the other 3 may stay longer than they should. Mike or Siobhan may go next. It’s quite possible for Lee to end up the winner.
Last year’s winner was a no brainer once Danny Gokey wound up third. The voting had been close, and my guess is that Adam did not inspire many of Danny’s fans to vote.
I really think the female tweens and teens currently text a high percentage of the total votes. I don’t know that Crystal is their idol.
Sue – I’d bet that crystals supporters outnumber supporters of all the other contestants put together. So even if Lee were to pick up ALL of caseys supporters, mikes supporters, siobhans supporters, etc (ain’t happening, but just IF)…. he still won’t have a chance.
I’ll make a bet with all of you guys now. Siobhan in the final and she never sees the bottom 3. Mike goes next, then Casey, then Aaron, then Lee. I don’t think too many web sitters understand the breadth of Siobhan’s fans or her vocals. Everyone continues to talk about her screeching and over singing. The last three songs Siobhan has sung are Across the Universe, Suspicious Minds and When You Believe. Nary a screech to be found. Only perfect vocals. The problem is everyone is believing Simon and Kara and not listening themselves. You can bet her fans are though.
As far as Crystal’s fans outnumbering everyone elses combined; don’t put any money on it and I love Crystal. And Lee will falter really soon.I can’t understand how a guy who sings two songs out of 9 is considered a frontrunner. Oh I forgot the judges say so.
I hope Crystal wins…what I love about her is that she is the American Dream..someone that does not have alot but is so talented…She wants to raise her child the best way she can and she has the talent to do it…I read where people do not like her teeth and hair, but believe me, she will win and sparkle on the stage..I love Siobhan Mangus because she is so different and fits into the ‘now’…I do not want the judges to come down so hard on her and hope she will have a huge moment this week…it would be great if she and Crystal were the last 2 standing…I think the guys remaining are not good enough to make it in the industry…I wish America could have left lillie and Kaitlyn in the show..it would have been more interesting…This year, Idol really is not that good…
Something that I think Crystal has, that will keep her fans from becoming complacent, is the ability to still have underdog appeal, while being the frontrunner. You’re rooting for her with your heart, not just sitting back being impressed. Her conviction when she sings connects, week after week. People want her passion for artistry to be recognized and rewarded. They know that she’s spent years, playing for peanuts, and never giving up, and they’re so happy for her, cheering her on, as she blossoms into a beautiful girl, and gets to finally share all she has to offer with folks who appreciate it and can help her realize her aspirations. It will truly be sad if she doesn’t win the title, this year. But even if that happens, she will most certainly be the one that emerges as the most successful star of Season 9.