Controversy and shock exits are part of Idol. Usually, however, it takes a few weeks for something in that department to happen. This year? Surprise right out of the gate.
Let’s break down all the boots. Ashley Rodriguez was something of a surprise, but largely because I read the tea leaves wrong: I put her safe thinking that her fanbase (as measured by the Twitter/Facebook/MySpace numbers) would be enough to delay her exit by at least one week. Unfortunately, I forgot one of my basic rules making that pick: the Idolsphere != the Idol voting base. Ooops. On pure merit alone, she deserved to go home – although if that was the deciding factor, more than two girls could have gone home.
The story was the same for Janell Wheeler. Let’s be blunt: both Ashley and Janell were trainwrecks. True, they weren’t the absolute worst – Haeley had that dubious spot – but they stank. If you stink, you usually get sent home. I was wrong on my picks, but I don’t mind too much – neither boot was really too outrageous.
As for the guys… this is what happens when you have a genuine trainwreck episode. The What Not to Sing numbers aren’t in yet, but it’s going to be ugly. (Hello, Tim Urban.) This early in the season, without the fanbases solidified yet, if the viewers at home don’t see anything really worthwhile to vote for, the preshow fanbases come into play – and there are lots of factors that come into play there that don’t include singing. Essentially, it comes down whether enough people like Contestant X or not.
Unfortunately, both Tyler Grady and Joe Munoz had issues in this department. Joe Munoz had practically been unheard from before the show. With a lot of hindsight, it’s easy to see that Tyler could have rubbed people the wrong way. My view that Tyler was good is clearly something of a minority view, so let’s put Tyler and Joe at about midcard in terms of overall performance (in the eyes of the wider Idol voting audience.) That made them vulnerable if something odd happened. And it did.
They both ran into the mother of all Sesame Street effects. With so many trainwrecks, there were a lot of power voters energized to vote to “Save Contestant X!” Neither Joe nor Tyler got that. Joe was essentially anonymous. Tyler was okay, but not so overwhelmingly good that he had the uncommitted voters breaking his way. He didn’t really have people who voted for him just because they found him likable (think, say, Andrew Garcia). It’s not really a shock vote. It’s a surprise, too, but both found themselves in the middle of the perfect Idol storm of bad singing from others, being not as likable as the rest of the field, and the fluke of the calendar (this probably would not have happened any other week except this one.)
What should we expect next week? The big question mark is whether the pimped favorites – Katie Stevens and Andrew Garcia – really are worthy of their supposed favorite status. Neither really distinguished themselves this week; they’ll be under severe pressure to succeed this week. I would not be surprised if one of them does not make it into the top 12.
Here’s something to keep in mind. Almost every year, someone stands out head and shoulders over the rest of the field in their first week. Sometimes it’s someone we hadn’t heard before (case in point: Allison Iraheta), sometimes it’s a favorite confirming why they were a favorite in the first place. This year? None of that. NFL-style parity has arrived on American Idol.
