Somehow, doing Michael Jackson for Idol this year seems strangely appropriate. Once upon a time, Michael Jackson was known primarily for his music. When he makes the headlines nowadays, it’s more likely for whatever act of jaw-dropping stupidity he’s done now instead of what he was once very good at, the music. Similarly, most of the Idol-related news of late has not been about the music either, but instead on what illegal drugs the producers are on.

It was, by far, the best show of the season. That’s not exactly saying much, but to be fair it was a watchable episode for all two hours. There were plenty of good performances, and even the trainwrecks were amusing to watch. It helped wash away any bad taste from last week’s sham wildcard show, although I have a very bad feeling that this time tomorrow the whole Idolsphere will be even more pissed at the producers than  last week. (More on that later.)

Best of the night was Danny Gokey. It wasn’t just his good vocals and his good performance that put him here, although it certainly helped. What set Danny apart was that his was possibly the only one last night who was “balanced” – his singing was as good as his performance, and vice versa. Unlike some of the others who turned in somewhat by-the-book and lackluster performances, Gokey gave it his all. Well done.

There were three others who were pretty good, too: Alexis Grace, Lil Rounds, and Adam Lambert. Let’s deal with this trio one at a time.

Lil Rounds delivered vocals and performance that were just as good as Gokey’s – if anything, she probably had the best vocals of the night. So why didn’t I rank her higher? It’s the intangibles that I don’t think she did that well. There was something of a paint-by-numbers aspect to her performance; it just didn’t feel as interesting as so many other of the performances tonight. It may not be completely fair, but we’ve heard this whole R&B diva act one too many times on Idol to be impressed by it anymore.

Adam Lambert gave another classic love-it-or-hate-it performance. I tend towards the latter – there’s too much gimmickry in Lambert’s act for me to warm up to him. I’ll give him credit – I sincerely doubt that the Idol stage has ever seen anyone with a better appreciation of stage presence. If one just listens to his version of Black or White, though… it’s not nearly as impressive. Most of the time, he’s not really singing, but more shouting. Paula’s proclamation of him as a finalist may be premature.

While I’m on the topic of the dramatic – Alexis Grace. The performance part of Dirty Diana was outstanding – I actually preferred the mix of passion and restraint here to the over-the-top hamminess of Lambert – and her vocals were pretty powerful and effective… most of the time. That said, there were spots of oversinging, which Paula was dead-on in spotting. She did well this week, but I’m interested to see if she can do the more subtle stuff.

Of the nine left, we had three classic trainwrecks – Anoop Desai, Megan Corkrey, and Jasmine Murray. The six other contestants had good to okay performances that had some highlights, for sure, but did have other problems.

Matt Giraud was the very definition of okay. Not good, not great, but okay. The vocals were not problematic, but not above-average either. Neither did the arrangement or performance itself stand out. Right now, Giraud is not particularly memorable – and his performance didn’t do much to dispel that. With other fish to fry, he’s safe for now, but one wonders how long that will last.

Both Scott Macintyre and Michael Sarver were roughly in the same boat. They’re both immensely likable people, with well-developed backstories. Unfortunately, they also share vocals that are really only middling, at best. Macintyre sings very well within his range, but it’s extremely narrow. Sarver’s range is better, but he isn’t nearly as good a singer in that range. They both make up for their vocal shortcomings with charisma, likability, and doing their damn best each and every week. They’re probably safe to the tour, but beyond that… I don’t know.

Kris Allen was, again, underrated Remember the Time. Due to another sloppy sound mix we didn’t hear much of the guitar, but he deserves some credit for originality and subtlety – or, at least, trying. Did he deliver? Not completely, to be honest – again, his vocals aren’t as sharp as some as the others – but at least he knows that, and is trying to work around it. It’ll be interesting to see how – and if – he grows as the season goes on.

Allison Iraheta doesn’t perform like she’s 16; she has a confidence and poise that goes far beyond her years. Unfortunately, she still sings like her age. The most common failing of teenage singers tends to be subtlety – or lack of it. They tend to rely almost exclusively on their power; forgetting that subtlety and control can be just as useful. Give it to Me was, like Alone, a power-fest; too often she was shouting the song, not singing it. The end result is a very middle-ranked performance overall. That said, if Iraheta can get the power under control, she has a unique huskiness that could help her stand out. She reminds me of a better version of Amanda Overmyer.

Jorge Nunez followed last week’s throwback ballad with… another throwback performance. The vocals are there, but I don’t think Jorge really has the experience and deep musical knowledge other contestants have had in the past to make use of it. Randy was under-stating things – Jorge is a very old-fashioned singer that doesn’t really blow people away in 2009. Under the old semifinals format, Jorge might have been able to find his footing with three performances before the finals. As it is, he’s still floundering about.

Lastly, our trainwrecks. The word I’d use to describe Megan Corkrey’s version of Rockin’ Robin is… insane. And not in a good way. As in, oh-my-God-what-was-she-thinking insane. Even then, it had a so-bad-you-can’t take-your-eyes-away quality – complete to the faux bird call at the end. The only way it would have been better if this had been what they had used as the bird sounds instead.

However, at least Corkrey was entertaining. I can’t say the same for Jasmine Murray. I’ll Be There made us want to be anywhere but within earshot of her. It sounded like something out of the talent portion of a particularly bad beauty pageant. It wasn’t anywhere near worthy of what was, last I checked, a singing competition.

No “frontrunner” has fallen as quickly – and deservedly – as Anoop Desai. His version of Beat It wasn’t technically bad, but nothing about it made sense. It was well done karaoke, but no karaoke will cut it on the Idol stage. He just can’t pick a song to save his skin. Monica, then Britney, now this? It was so bad, singing the Weird Al Yankovic parody of this song -Eat It – would have been better.

The Idol Guy picks: If there were justice in the world, the Trainwreck Three would be in danger. Easily. Anoop has been a disappointment since the group stages, Jasmine should never have been called back, and Megan is… Megan. None of them will be greatly missed.

However… there’s the tiny little problem that they all have had significant airtime and pimpage. The end result? If you look at the Dialidol numbers, they’re safer than they ought to be. Desai, in particular, is in the top 4! This is the Mighty Mouse effect on steroids.

So, setting aside the question of who should go and replacing it with who will go, the money has to be on poor Jorge Nunez. Yes, he got a decent amount of pre-finals love – but so has the entire top 13 (with two exceptions), so that category is basically a wash. This early, comments from the judges make a big difference – and they basically slammed him. He deserved some harshness, but not that much.

With a top 13, you have to consider the possibility of a dual boot. The one in danger there is probably Murray or Allison Iraheta. The latter’s song choice didn’t really serve her that well, and with her relative lack of pre-show publicity she might not have that strong a fanbase yet. However, on the flip side, Murray was just plain bad. It’s hard to believe she’s winning over any people right now. If gambling on American Idol were legal, I’d call this a pick ‘em spot. Force me to make a choice, though, and I’d say it’s Murray.

However, the hand of producer manipulation is coming into play. MJ has the details on the new “rule” but the short of it is the judges get a one-time veto on the picks. It’s not yet clear what would happen instead – second-lowest goes home, double elimination next week, etc. We’ll all find out when the results show airs, and I’ll talk about it then. However, as far as this week’s elimination goes, there is a good chance it’ll come into play right away – especially if it’s Murray who might go home.

I just don’t understand the love affair the judges (especially Kara) have with Murray. This whole “package” stuff sounds like a bunch of pandering nonsense. All the packaging in the world will not matter if the core – i.e., the singing, is crap. Murray has no future as a singer. However, the judges do like her, and it would not be surprising if they used the veto to save her.

So, the final picks: Jorge Nunez to go home. Jasmine Murray to be saved by veto. If veto sends home next lowest after saved contestant instead, Allison Iraheta goes home as well.

I’ll have more on the results show much, much later but I have to put this up right away. The Idol wildcard was going to be a bad idea to begin with, and the specter of producer manipulation was hanging over everything like a faulty chandelier.

Now, this may sound like bragging, but: I told you so! I said after the Group 3 performances that if Felicia Barton wouldn’t make it by voting, the producers would never be invited to the wildcard because she was probably a lose-lose for TPTB. Yet, if that wasn’t bad enough, it got worse.

Let’s look at the entire lineup of wildcard picks, separated by Group.

Group 1

• Ricky Braddy
• Tatiana Del Toro
• Anoop Desai

Group 2

• Megan Corkrey
• Matt Giraud
• Jesse Langseth
• Jasmine Murray

Group 3

• Von Smith

Let’s consider what we know about each of the group. Group 1 had plenty of hype, but really didn’t live up to it. The surprises there was Braddy coming out of nowhere and surprising everyone, Desai choking, and del Toro being surprisingly okay. That’s fair enough. I have no quibble with the Group 1 picks as is.

It’s the Group 2 picks where things get screwy. Giraud and Murray? Are you freaking kidding me? They were both complete and utter disasters – and whatever the “package” spin is, they can’t sing well. At all. Given the glut of talent in Group 3, only one of Langseth and Corkrey should have made it – and while I say it should be Langseth, most people believe it should be Corkrey. Fair enough – either way, it’s three bad picks out of four. Ouch. And why half of the wildcard picks out of, by universal consensus, the worst group? There should have only been one.

And then we get to Group 3. There has to be more than one pick – and if there was only one pick, why was it Von Smith? Why wasn’t it Felicia Barton? Or Ju’Not Joyner? Heck, even Kristen McNamara was better than Smith. Von Smith wasn’t bad, but it was just okay. It was not wildcard worthy.

The wildcard round is as bad as I thought it would be – if not worse. The producers have clearly decided on what they want – mostly cannon fodder. They don’t want to take any chances of “surprises”. They don’t want a competition; they want a coronation. This was the Los Angeles Screwjob.

They ought to be ashamed of themselves; in a just world they would be walking around the streets of Los Angeles tarred and feathered. In the pantheon of low Idol moments, this is one of the worst I’ve ever seen.

I like being right as much as any other analyst/pundit, so allow me to do the Happy Dance at calling Group 2 perfectly. It might well be the only chance I get to do it, given how unpredictable this season is likely to end up being.

Just like last week we’ll do Winners and Losers.

Winners

Kris Allen: If there was one surprise of the group, Allen was it. Few would have thought he would have secured a slot in the top 12 with the kind of performance – and while in most nights it wouldn’t, in the midst of so many unimpressive and disappointing performances it was.

Allen was a little lucky, but the reality is luck plays a part on Idol. If Allen is a smart guy, he should take this golden opportunity and run with it. If there’s anyone who can take the underdog-who-got-much-better role this year, Allen appears to be it.

Allison Iraheta: Iraheta was also relatively unknown before this week, and her version of Alone came in for high praise from a lot of quarters. I wasn’t as impressed by it as most, though. However, she’s impressed a lot of people which will help her build the fanbase she needs to last into the competition. Given how little pre-show publicity she received, she needs it. Still, her distinctive looks, good performance ability, and decent enough voice should put her in good stead to last long.

Losers

Meghan Corkrey – Was there a bigger disappointment on Wednesday night? As I said after the performances, Put Your Record On is a classic trap song. It’s to her credit that it wasn’t a complete train wreck – she has a wonderfully unique, maybe even quirky voice – but she needed to be smarter about song choice.

Factoid of the week: Put Your Record On has now been sung twice and ended up not advancing its singer both times. I wish it was unique in that, but no. There are at least a few other songs in the same category. The worst offender in that list, though: I Wanna Dance With Somebody, which has been done four times and never advanced anyone, with only one wildcard callback. (The singer called back didn’t advance past the wildcard, either.)

Adam Lambert: I seem to be establishing a trend here. For the second week in a row, the top pick of the guys has ended up in the losers side of the aisle. That’s not normal, is it?

Well, there’s a reason for this. Going into the semifinals, both Lambert and Danny Gokey were both regarded as favorites and frontrunners. In both cases, however, there’s now a large “yes, they can sing, but…” attached to both of them. With Lambert, it’s his overall performance style that could hurt him. He’s not a bad singer at all, but his style is so divisive that he might not go as far as people think. Forget the “he could win” lines I’m seeing – he won’t. Taylor Hicks notwithstanding, you cannot win with the kind of mixed reviews Lambert got, and probably will get in weeks to come. He’s a candidate for the “favorite that goes too soon, many say” spot.

Kara DioGuardi and Paula Abdul: As I said: the whole Paula-Kara spot has taken on a life of its own, and didn’t things look… just a wee bit awkward? It was almost like there was this huge, transparent wall between them. Whatever the case, it made for some awkward TV. Had this happened any other week, it would have been written about everywhere – but with the ghastly shows this week it didn’t get any, with so much else to write about.

Pre-season predictions: There’s a good reason I haven’t speculated much on who’ll do well in the semifinal rounds before the actual group rounds. There just isn’t enough information. Youtube clips, a brief audition, soundbites from Hollywood… I’d rather wait for someone to sing “in anger” before making any judgments.

There’s also the big issue of looking like a giant idiot when predictions turn out to horribly, horribly wrong. Look at what happened to all the predictions that Jasmine Murray and Matt Giraud would do well. Instead, they both occupy the Sanjaya Zone -  our own version of a hall of shame.

Last week the hype machine that is American Idol ran aground after the much-hyped Group 1 turned out to be largely ordinary. So things had to get better after that, right? Uh… no. It’s safe to say Group 2 turned out to be even worse than Group 1. Ouch.

Just like last week, it was a case where no one was really great. If anything, it was even worse: we have a hard time calling any of the performances last night good at all. There were good spots in some of the performances, to be sure, but the performances were not really all that confidence-inspiring.

The two performances that seem to be getting a lot of praise from some quarters are Allison Iraheta’s Alone and Adam Lambert’s (I Can’t Get No) Satisfaction. Let’s deal with those one at a time.

Iraheta’s song choice flew in the face of one of the Indisputable Facts of American Idol: the best version of Alone on the Idol stage was, is, and forever will be Carrie Underwood’s. Period. Now, to her credit, Iraheta didn’t do as badly as others have in the past. She commands the stage with an ease that you don’t expect to see this early. Keep in mind she’s doing this at the age of 16 – has any teenager showed better stage presence? Probably not recently, if ever.

That said, Alone is a song that will expose any and all deficiencies in a singer’s vocals. In some spots, Iraheta was shouting that song, not singing it. Even when she was singing it, she was just powering through it with not much subtlety, as if she took a sledgehammer to the song. As far as I’m concerned, Iraheta’s performance is the most overrated of the current AI season.

Adam Lambert… where do I begin? He got things off to bad start for me when he stared a little too deeply into the camera at the start. It reminded us of Constantine Maroulis, which is rarely, if ever, a good comparison. And then the singing itself… well, when he was singing and not screeching, it was pretty good.

The singing is almost irrelevant, though, because of the theatrics. The last time I saw anyone like this would be… Taylor Hicks, in his full Soul Patrol mode. However, for me, it’s about the singing first, theatrics second. The theatrics were so over the top, it distracted from the singing – not enhanced it. Color me not impressed. Unless he proves he can really sing – which I don’t think he did this week – this whole manic act might wear thin sooner rather than later.

If Iraheta and Lambert were over-rated, then I think there were two singers that were actually pretty good – and both tended to get lost in the shuffle. Kara was right, the first half of Kris Allen’s Man In The Mirror, but by the second half it was surprisingly good. It would be interesting to see what he’d do with less nerves, and, maybe, better song choice. Unfortunately, that’ll be unlikely to happen – anothe reason to hate the new semifinal format.

The other underrated performance was Jesse Langeth’s Bette Davis Eyes. Randy was off-base when he criticized her for the limited range – not every singer needs to be Whitney or Mariah who can sing in more octaves than there are fingers in a hand. There’s definitely some real artistry and subtlety there that I just didn’t find elsewhere tonight. Vocally, there were some rough bits, but overall, she did a great job of expressing who she is as an artist – better than anyone else in the group, I thought. Langeth possibly has the biggest overall potential upside of anyone left – if she can make it past this week.

If those four constituted the “best” of the night, then we had four more people in the Muddled Middle. Mishavonna Henson, Meghan Corkrey, Kai Kalama, and Matt Brietzke all turned in the equivalent of musical wallpaper. Brietzke and Kalama’s singing was actually decent, but dull. Henson was, if anything, worse: she was boring and the singing was off in places.

Our biggest disappointment, however, was Corkrey: in a night of boneheaded song choices, she ran into a gigantic land mine when she picked Corinne Bailey Rae. Yes, she did better than the only other person to do Put Your Records On – but when that person is Antonella Barba, there’s no other direction but up. However, the song is something of a trap – it’s not a song which demands a power voice, which makes people think it’s easy to sing. But it isn’t – it’s a very quirky, unique song that works for Corinne Bailey Rae, but not anyone else.

Worst of the night was, easily, the first three singers. Have we Idol viewers ever been subjected to three worse songs in a row to open a show? Jasmine Murray, Matt Giraud, Jeanine Vailes – you three are, collectively, 2009’s first entry into the Sanjaya Zone! Sit beside your fellow inductees Sanjaya Malakar and half of the girls in last year’s top 20 to be “honored” for achievements in musical horror. Songs that didn’t fit, mediocre singing (at best)… let’s not waste any more time. I almost wanted to take a page out of the Elvis playbook and shoot the TV.

What about Nick Mitchell, a.k.a Norman Gentle? He isn’t really playing the same game as everyone else. I never thought I would say this, but: I was glad to see him come on. After the last three disasters, we needed some entertainment – and he was entertaining. Should he go any further? No, but Nick wasn’t playing the same game everyone else was. He’s gold for any comedy club that wants him for the next few months or so. G

Enough about Hollywood week!: The judges – Kara, in particular – seem to love to refer to how the contestants did in Hollywood. Is it too much to ask them to stop unless we viewers at home actually heard what they’re talking about? Thanks to the shenaningans of the editing team, the Hollywood episodes were sadly lacking in actual singing. You’re there, in theory, to give critiques to help the viewers at home. So how can I, and everyone else watching, refer to events we didn’t see at all? It’s ridiculous.

Quick thought about the judges: Media reports have it Paula isn’t particularly pleased by the fourth judge, and Kara is, quote, “disappointed”. Boy, Paula and Kara looked awfully awkward last night, didn’t they?

Up in the air: Well, picking the top guy and top girl is pretty easy: that’ll be Allison Iraheta and Adam Lambert. Both had love-it-or-hate-it quantities – particularly Lambert – but they’ll get enough votes to make it to the finals easily.

The third slot, though, well, just about anyone can make it. I can’t even rule out Normund Gentle. Only Jeanine Vailes is probably completely screwed and out of it. That said, I would like either Jesse Langseth or Kris Allen to make it to the finals – but even if betting on reality TV was legal, I wouldn’t put any money on it. If I had to pick one of the two… Kris Allen, largely because the preliminary What Not to Sing numbers are better for him.

The Idol Guy picks: Lambert, Iraheta, and Allen to advance.