The Idol Guy

Normally, the top 3 episode makes for the most compelling night of the year for Idol fans. Above-average singing, the tension of “who’s going to end up in the finale?” - what’s not to like? Unfortunately, much like the season as a whole, the episode mostly sputtered to the end. It wasn’t bad, not by any means, but for an episode this late in the game we where underwhelmed.

The winner of the night was David Cook - no great surprises there. The First Time I Ever Saw Your Face was not exactly in his comfort zone, but he’s proven his ability to handle that problem during Mariah Carey and Andrew Lloyd Webber weeks. One thing for sure: it kept DC’s hordes of fangirls very, very, happy.

If only the rest of his songs were that good. We appreciate the motives behind Dare You To Move, but the song never got anywhere. Shockingly, Paula made a lot of sense. The song really did suffer from the cuts needed to get it down to 90 seconds, but that was something DC should have anticipated. We’re told this wasn’t his original pick, and perhaps that also caused problems with this performance. As for his producer’s choice, well… none of them did the final three any favors, but DC got the best of the worst. Overall, the performance was decent - but nothing more. The arrangement didn’t help him in any way. The start was far from impressive, but it got better towards the end.

Like David Cook, Syesha had one top-notch song on Tuesday night. Fever was no verbal masterpiece, but Syesha really is a brilliant performer. The one thing she has over both Davids is her ability to “act” through a song. The overall package was extremely compelling and entertaining. We get where Paula and Simon were coming from, but what Syesha did was primarily play to her strengths. We didn’t have a big issue with the song choice.

However, both Randy and the producers conspired to each throw Syesha an anvil when she needed a life jacket. If I Ain’t Got You was quite well sung, but that was about it. “Well sung” is not going to cut it in the top 3 show. At this stage, what is expected is not just good vocals, but the ability to “make a song your own”. Syesha came nowhere close.

That was nothing, however, compared to the poison pill that was Hit Me Up. Syesha could be excused if she wanted to hit some after hearing about this pick. Whether it’s about penguins or “hitting up” people on MySpace, the song was an exceptionally ridiculous choice. It was another performance-over-vocals song, but it didn’t work nearly as well as Fever did. We’re sure Syesha did the best with the song, but there was only so much to be done. Really now, a song about MySpace and/or penguins? Come on!

As for David Archuleta, like the two others he managed one top-notch song of the night. We’ll give David this: when you strip away all the talent show tricks - the oversinging, the arm waving, etcetera - he does have a remarkably pure voice. Paula’s pick - along with a relatively minimalistic arrangement - brought that voice front and center. Well done.

However, David then proceeded to prove his inability to do anything other than a slow ballad with an awkward version of With You. Only his squealing fangirls and Randy loved it, and try as we might we can’t hear what they heard. His range was non-existent, the “dancing” was awkward, and David could hardly have picked a song that suited him less. At any stage of the show, this would have been bad - but at the top 3? Absolutely terrible.

Dan Fogelberg’s Longer was another poorly chosen song that did David no favors. Like Syesha, David did what he could with the song, but Simon was absolutely spot on. This was an overly sappy, emotionally overwrought (and not in a good way), dreary, and tedious song choice. What on earth were they thinking - or were they even doing that at all?

Overall, the top 3 episode was something of a disappointment. The top 3 has been a fertile ground for showstoppers before, which this week lacked. Season Five gave us Over The Rainbow. Season Four gave us In A Dream. No showstoppers, and not even half of the songs could be considered, without qualifications, good? Mediocrity ruled the night, as it has too many times this season. The producer’s picks, in particular, were downright disastrous; it was almost enough for us to wish someone had instead dragged Clive Davis out of his cryogenic chamber. Almost.

On the other side of the coin: Last week, we talked about how old the songs our would-be Idols usually are, and what it means. Let’s turn to another age-related problem that’s been brought front and center: the age of the contestants themselves. Specifically, it’s our latest suggestion: raise the minimum age limit for Idol to 18, instead of 16.

The “inspiration” for this comes from some news from behind the vaunted Idol curtain. We’re sure you already know, but to recap: apparently, last week David Archuleta added a line from another song to one of his performances last week. Supposedly, this was done at the direction of his father, Jeff. Unfortunately, TPTB did not have the necessary clearances for the added line - something that cost the show a fair amount of money, and led to Jeff being booted from all backstage activities.

David is hardly the first minor contestant to be on the show. Neither is this the first time the question of age has come up - Season Three was famously dominated by youth. Last year, Jordin Sparks became the youngest winner of Idol at the tender age of 17 years, 5 months, and one day. (If David Archuleta wins, he will become the youngest winner - at 17 years, 4 months, and 23 days.)

However, this may well be the first season where an overbearing parent has landed himself in the news wires for all the wrong reasons. As far as we can remember, the whole situation with Jeff Archuleta is unparalleled. Never has a family member been this involved, and the same can probably be said for Idol actually excluding someone.

Let’s take a step back, however. How old have Idol contestants, particularly those who did well, been in the past? Consider this list of finalists, and other notable alumni. Age is measured at the date of their respective season finales in all cases.

Kelly Clarkson: 20 years, 4 months, 11 days
Justin Guarini: 23 years, 10 months, 7 days

Ruben Studdard: 24 years, 8 months, 9 days
Clay Aiken: 24 years, 5 months, 21 days

Fantasia Barrino: 19 years, 10 months, 26 days
Diana DeGarmo: 16 years, 11 months, 10 days

Carrie Underwood: 22 years, 2 months, 15 days
Bo Bice: 29 years, 6 months, 24 days

Taylor Hicks: 29 years, 7 months, 17 days
Katharine McPhee: 22 years, 1 month, 29 days
Chris Daughtry: 27 years, 4 months, 28 days

Jordin Sparks: 17 years, 5 months, 1 day
Blake Lewis: 25 years, 10 months, 2 days

Historically, Idol has been the domain of the early to mid-20s contestant. There’s good reason for this, of course: from both a commercial and artistic perspective, the 20s are something of a sweet spot: young enough to be new and interesting, yet not so young as to be thought of as still a kid. Some songs just do not sound right, or credible, in the hands of a teenager.

Keep in mind, too, that there are many complications with putting a teenager on a show like Idol. For the benefit of the argument, set aside the fact that the typical week for a contestant is already as busy as anyone can imagine, even for an adult. It’s not nearly an ideal environment for a teenager. Set aside, too, the enormous backstage complications of having minors around. Jeff Archuleta may well be the worst stage dad so far, but he won’t be the last. To be honest, far too many times having minors face the rigors of Idol has never seemed right to us, and in fact feels vaguely exploitative.

Fundamentally, what we viewers at home want from the auditions are pretty simple: we want to see an audition process that sends a broad mix of talented singers, from multiple genres, to Hollywood. There will always be a few deluded lunatics and famewhores that make for an entertaining sideshow, but that’s just what they are - a sideshow. And that’s something that really bothers us: we don’t think that bringing in singers that young helps the competition at all.

Our basic problem is that more than other singers, younger singers tend to be very “incomplete”. They’re all well and good at hitting the notes and the runs - many of them have been through the talent/talk show circuit - but they lack the nuances that separate a good singer from a good musician. It’s a tiny nuance, but an important one. David Archuleta is something of an extreme case, but it’s true that many of them are incapable of expressing the emotion of a song. (In general, this is one reason we’re very wary of all the young singing “sensations” that make the rounds of Oprah, Ellen, all the other syndicated talk shows.)

In addition, if these younger singers are really that good at 16… guess what - they’ll be as good, if not better, at 18 or later. While age is no guarantee of the ability to sing with emotion (ask Carly), but it surely doesn’t hurt. As we said: some songs just aren’t credible in the hands of a teenager. Also, the real musical world is so far separated from the realm of talent shows that what works in the latter will utterly fail in the former. Singing is not like modeling where there are compelling advantages to youth that won’t be there later on.

While the Idol Powers That Be might not understand or particularly care about artistic merit or other such unmeasurable factors, here’s one in a language they will understand: money. The trouble with far too many teen stars is that their careers last about as long as they stay a teenager - which isn’t very long. Some can, but it’s not a frequent occurrence. It’s more likely that a teen star can milk the hell out of their career for a few years, but suddenly fade into obscurity after a while. What’s wrong with this picture? One word: recurring revenue.

It’s possible to make a lot of money in the short-term, but the real money that can be made in the music industry is in the long term. Even if someone’s sales aren’t quite what they used to be, there’s still plenty of money to be made elsewhere. If anything, the real profits nowadays are to be made in the long-term - royalties, touring, merchandise, etc. That’s not to say that a young singer can find success and keep it as an adult, but that’s far from certain.

As far as we’re concerned, there is no good rationale for keeping minors on the show. In no way are they “better” than their older counterparts. There are complications bringing them on the show in the first place. Yes, we had a teen winner last year, and a teen finalist this year. But guess what - Jordin, all spin to the contrary, has been at best an okay success, while David Archuleta’s bankability is uncertain. Is there any good reason not to raise the age limit to 18?

Pick your poison: The little pissing contest between Simon and Randy over Syesha’s pick got us to wondering. Is there any appreciable pattern in the judge’s picks for the top 3? If you’re a top 3 Idol finalist, what can you expect from Randy/Paula/Simon? We went all the way back to Season Three - where, as far as we can tell, the judges began making individual picks and not collective ones, as they did in Season Two.

Randy has a fairly simple pattern. In the past four seasons, he has given out a slow ballad-type song three times. Twice, too, he gave songs that were unmistakably aiming for the big voice he’s so fond of, both in and out of the show. He gave Melinda Doolittle a Whitney Houston song; similarly he handed Diana DeGarmo Celine Dion. Even when faced with the complete opposite of the Big Voiced Singer, Taylor Hicks, Randy gave him a slow song that was as close to his preferred style as Taylor could pull off. As if he was balancing things out, Randy gave Carrie Underwood a song in exactly the opposite mold - a fast-paced Shania Twain song. We chalk that one up to the general lack of understanding of country music among the judges.

Next, Simon. His picks can be described, to be blunt, as risky. They can also be somewhat out of left field - Roberta Flack for David Cook? Judy Garland or Eva Cassidy for Katharine McPhee? As for the ultimate result, when they work, they work very well. Both Fantasia’s Fool in Love and Katharine McPhee’s Over the Rainbow could be considered one of the best songs of their respective nights. On the other hand, when they don’t work, they’re mediocre at best. A classic example would be his pick for Jordin Sparks last year - Wishing On A Star, while decently sung, wasn’t much else.

Paula’s picks are something of a mystery. There’s no pattern the way there is with the other judges. Her picks aren’t meant to challenge the way Simon’s are, nor are they as genre-specific as Randy’s. To us, though, it seems like she picks her songs the same way she judges: the songs she picks are what she thinks would suit the would-be Idols, but what she thinks and reality aren’t always the same. She means well, we think, but history is stacked against her. Of the four picks she’s done in previous years, no one has delivered a clear showstopper - the best that can be said is “okay”, but more often “what the heck was that?” (See: Bo Bice, and Satisfaction.) David Archuleta’s success with And So It Goes is the exception, not the rule.

So, all things considered, which is the best, both for us at home and the Idols? The loser is clear: Paula. This year notwithstanding, her record is not stellar. She means well, but she can be misguided at times. As for Randy and Simon… it’s a tossup. Randy’s choices can usually be described as safe, but not exceptional. Simon offers the possibility of great success, but also the possibility of mediocrity. Either way… it’s a tough call.

How did she get this far?: Pundits all over the Internet have been predicting the boot of Syesha for a fairly long time, only to be wrong for multiple weeks in a row. If anyone had told us at the start of the season that Syesha would reach the top 3, our reaction would have been: “you’re kidding, right? That’s impossible.”

So just how did Syesha get this far? A healthy dose of it involved luck: other contestants who, in normal circumstances, would have done better than Syesha faltered, for one reason or another. We’ve gone over the reasons for those exits so we won’t rehash them all, but suffice to say they left the door open for Syesha to sneak in.

None of this would have meant anything if Syesha couldn’t sing very well. By far, her biggest problem was her tendency to oversing songs and reach for the glory notes too much. Syesha has a beautiful singing voice, but not what she thinks she has: if she could just lean off the power notes just a bit, she’d be fantastic.

To be fair, in the past few weeks Syesha has been singing fairly well - well enough that she wasn’t the worst of any night, all the way back to the top 24. That kind of “consistency” - or, at least, the ability to avoid trainwrecks - helps. In addition, vote splitting hasn’t been a problem for her in a long time. Those two factors meant that despite lacking the strong initial fanbase the rest enjoyed, she was able to pick up enough freelance votes to stay safe. However, her margin of error was always razor-thin - one bad performance and she would have gone home. Consider that the last time Syesha was not in a bottom group during the Top 9 week - Dolly Parton week. That was more than a month ago - an eternity on this show.

Was there anything Syesha could have done differently to last any longer? Probably not. She did well - very well, in fact - to get as far as she did. Ultimately, she got in the way of two immensely powerful juggernauts that couldn’t be stopped. There’s a striking parallel to Season Four, where another female singer from the Sunshine State (Vonzell Solomon) ran into two forces of nature. There was nothing Vonzell could do then, and nothing Syesha could have done now. Just like Season Four, we’re going to get the duel that’s been in the making almost all season long.

The bye-ku for the week goes like this:

Whitney? Mariah?
She’s a diva wannabe
Try Broadway instead

Too close to call: Last year, we predicted that Jordin would win even before a single note had been sung in the finale. Had we been in business for Season Five, we would have done the same for Taylor. This year, however… no. We’re not going to make a prediction, because it really is too close to call.

Usually, one can predict who’ll win the finale by looking at both their recent performances and trying to gauge the strength of their fanbases. A good metric of measuring the latter is by counting the number of appearances in the bottom group. All three of the past runners-up made at least one appearance there - and none of three past winners were ever in danger. (The only person never to be put in a bottom group, make it to the finale, and not win? Clay Aiken.)

This time, however, neither of the Davids has been in danger. One person never in danger is frequent, but two is unprecedented. We honestly have no idea whose fanbase is stronger. We think that Cook enjoys a broader fanbase than Archuleta, but we can’t underestimate the sheer power of a hormone-driven tween fanbase. We have no idea how it will turn out.

You’ve all heard, we’re sure, of the phrase “be careful what you wish for.” A week after asking for more genre-based theme, we got one: songs from the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. Unfortunately, our top 4 then proceeded to, at the very least, bobble the proverbial ball: while the performances (save for Jason’s) weren’t really bad, we weren’t exactly blown away either. To quote the irrepressible Gordon Ramsay, star of the Idol follow-on program Hell’s Kitchen, “Not good enough.” (Insert hand-movement-across-the-neck here.)

The winner of the night was… well, we’ll call it a tie between the two Davids. Each of them delivered one good performance and another that was mediocre. In both cases, however, even our praise of the good performances is somewhat tempered. Both could have crossed over to great, but didn’t.

David Cook’s Hungry Like The Wolf was a crowd-pleaser, but nothing more. Musically, it was what we’d call a nothing song - we got nothing out of it. Baba O’Riley was much better - it flowed better than its predecessor, but even then it wasn’t as good as what we’ve seen from David before. It may be a bit unfair for David, but the truth is we do have somewhat higher expectations from David than the rest of the field. Also, the song suffered rather heavily from the cutting needed to get it down to 90 seconds.

The other David’s good song, meanwhile, was his first. Unlike his other songs of late, everything “made sense”: the vocals, the arrangement, even the stage presence itself came together. Well done. Our knock on this, though, was it struck us as a very safe performance. A safe performance, no matter how well-done, is not what we want this late in the competition.

His attempt at Elvis, however, was ill-advised to say the least. Our problem wasn’t with the singing itself - David is a good enough balladeer that any ballad will have good vocals. However, the overall package made no sense. We could go on for a very long time, but we won’t. The bottom line is: singing a song like Love Me Tender, if you have the image of David Archuleta (who is already young, and looks even younger), made no sense. To pull off a song like that, there has to be a moment where the listener at home believes the story within the song came from the heart. With an image like David’s, that was impossible. The suspension of disbelief that occurs in a really good song never happened here.

Syesha was somewhere in the middle with two performances that were both just okay. She brought out all the stops for Proud Mary - and we’re not exactly talking about her singing here, folks. That said, this was a good song choice for her: none of the overpowered glory notes that she is addicted to, and it made use of her non-singing abilities, namely her looks and her superb performance skills. Like David Cook’s first song, this was primarily a crowd-pleaser, but it did have some musical substance. Somewhat - okay, a lot copycat-ish, but overall it was enjoyable.

All pretense of restraint, however, went out the window with A Change Is Gonna Come. Most of the song we liked; when she’s not overdoing the power notes Syesha has an impressively expressive and emotional voice. With just a little restraint, this would have been a brilliant song. However, the glory notes just ruined it for us. One moment she was pulling on emotional heartstrings, the next she was trying to blow us out of our seats. We have rarely, if ever, seen a more schizophrenic performance on Idol. It was everything we loved and hated about Syesha in 90 seconds, leaving us more than a little confused.

This leaves us, again, with Jason. Urgh. We would have called it the worst final four performance ever, but a glance at the history books made us remember Jasmine Trias. That said, it was still ugly. Let’s just say our immediate, visceral reactions to both songs were to wonder what kind of punishment would be appropriate. I Shot The Sheriff made us wish for a posse to take Jason into custody. Eric Clapton and Bob Marley he isn’t.

As for Mr. Tambourine Man, we thought of hitting Jason over the head with a tambourine to wake him up, but that would have been a waste of a perfectly good musical instrument. Setting aside the lyric flub, it was flat, showed no range, and bored us to death. We would have loved to see the expression on Jason’s face during the forgotten verse; we bet it was the same oh-my-god-what-am-I-doing-here smile we saw back in Michelle. It’s the Castro Face.

Overall, we were not all that impressed with this week’s performances. Setting aside Jason’s double disaster, the performances of the three others left us a bit disappointed. Syesha was, on one hand, predictable, on the other hand ear-shattering. David Archuleta was either safe or completely inappropriate; and David Cook’s songs were either complete fluff or curiously incomplete. Among those three, no trainwrecks, but no showstoppers either - which is what we want this close to the finale.

Someone’s mixer is broken: What is it with the audio problems that beset this week’s performance show? Many FORT posters were of the opinion that the band was far too loud on Tuesday night, but our experience here on the other side of the world was exactly the opposite. The backup music was on the soft side - too soft for our taste.

One would think that given the millions both Fox and 19 Entertainment make off Idol, one would think that they’d have the budget to hire a decent sound engineer - but apparently that isn’t the case. Come on, TPTB. Grow a brain, will you? Your audience is not made up of complete idiots. Show your “employers” - we, the viewing public - some respect.

How old is this song they’re singing, again?: One point of discussion of late has been how it seems this year that Idol does not appeal as much to the “younger” 18-34 market. The culprit? Many say that it’s because the songs they’re using this season are older than ever before. Let’s see if that is the case.

Before we go any further, we’ll give out the due credit. We couldn’t have done this editorial without the data from the fine folks at What Not To Sing, who provided us with the statistical numbers to back our analysis up. We owe them our deepest thanks.

Calculating the age of a song is sometimes not as easy as it sounds. The trouble is primarily with covers - do you credit it with the age of the original, or the new version? For the purposes of our analysis, we have stuck with the original age, except for Over the Rainbow, for which we used the cover version’s age. As these are preliminary numbers, we may adjust them later on.

Let’s also introduce one statistical concept we found useful in our analysis - the median. Everyone knows what an average is, but sometimes it can be misleading. For example, say contestant A sings four songs: they are 1, 2, 3, and 50 years old. The average, in this case, would be 14, but that’s a rather misleading number; no one would agree that singer A usually does 14-year-old songs.

In a group of values (in this case, song age), the median is the one such that half are higher than that value, while the rest are lower. If there are an odd number of numbers, the median will be one of the numbers in the group. If there are even numbers, it will be the average of the two “middle” numbers. For example, the median of contestant A’s songs will be 2.5 - half of them are older, half are younger, and it’s the average of 2 and 3. (For the full explanation, check Wikipedia.)

Because of time limitations, we haven’t been able to crunch the numbers for all episodes yet. However, we concentrated on the finals of three different seasons - the current one, Season Four, and Season Five. Why only the finals? For one, the themed semis this season skewed the numbers a bit older - not that it needed any more of that. Why not Season Six? Well, to be honest, we’re not up to reliving, even only briefly, last year’s nightmare - and the two older seasons we chose have some interesting revelations in their own right, too. We’re crunching the numbers for the other seasons right now, and may report on them in a future editorial.

In dealing with song ages, why is the median important? In every season, there’s at least one theme that upsets the statistical applecart. Season Four, for example, had the mind-numbingly ancient theme known as Classic Musicals in the Top 9 - with an average song age of 46.9 years. Ouch. Season Five gave us the songs of the fifties and the Great (and ancient) American Songbook. Average age of the latter? Just shy of 64 years. Averages can be easily upset by statistical outliers; medians are less vulnerable.

With that out of the way, let’s get down to the questions. First: are the contestants singing older songs than before? The answer, unequivocally, is yes. The overall average song age ranged from 22.9 (Season Two) to 27.19 (Season Three). The running average for this season so far? 32.4. Ouch.

Things don’t get much better if you consider only the finals and the top 12 contestants. The average for Season Four was 24.86, median 27. Season Five averaged 28.71 with a median of 30. As it stands right now, the current season average is 30.33 with a median of 34. Oh boy. This spells one word: trouble.

If you look at the shows on a per-episode basis, the blame becomes clear. Fully three episodes have crossed the magic forty barrier - the two Beatles weeks, and this week’s Rock and Roll Hall of Fame theme. That wouldn’t be a problem by itself (although a worrying sign), but there haven’t been any “young” episodes to balance it. The youngest episode was Idol Gives Back week, but that averaged “only” in the teens (15.5, 13 median). Mariah Carey week was not too far off at 17.3 average, 15 median. In contrast, both Season Four and Five were able to deliver episodes averaging in the single digits, thanks to “songs of the 2000s” themes.

As one saying goes, everything in moderation. While the younger side of the 18-34 demographic may be useless when it comes to older material, most (including ourselves, age 24) are willing to give those a shot. At the same time, however, neither do we particularly care for a near-exclusive reign of older material. Idol has hit that well very frequently this season. Just as bad, of course, is when a theme is younger on paper but absolutely irrelevant in terms of a singing career. Hello, Andrew Lloyd Webber.

We’re now of the opinion that while the talent this year has been, by Idol standards, quite exceptional, the producers ruined what could have been a classic season by churning out themes that baffled not just the contestants, but viewers at home. Age was just the most visible sign, but even the younger themes weren’t always all that interesting, to be honest. It’s a fair question to ask: are the Idol PTB really of the opinion that there’s no good music in the past two decades? It would seem to be that way, after the past two weeks. Neil Diamond averaged 31.3 years old and a median of 29. The Hall of Fame had an average of over 40 and a median of 37. We’re sorry, but that’s too much.

We’re not even going to put any of the blame on the contestants, because in general, given a time-neutral theme, they tended to try and right the ship themselves. Consider the previously mentioned Idol Gives Back week: that week’s songs featured a healthy spread from two-year-old songs (KLC’s Anyway) to 37 (Brooke’s You’ve Got A Friend). Dolly Parton week also illustrates this: while most of the field went for the old material (median song age: 31), both Davids, Ramiele, and Jason went for the younger material: Ramiele in the twenties, and the rest in the single digits. The result was a relatively more balanced night (average: 23.67). Given a chance, this year’s Idols do a reasonable job of selecting a good mix of contemporary and classic material.

The most interesting data to come out of our analysis, however, isn’t so much the season-and-episode numbers. That merely confirms what most people already knew intuitively. However, looking at the numbers, we found an interesting correlation: all other things being equal, a contestant who picks younger songs will do better than another who picks older songs - both on and off Idol.

Take note, however, the big caveat - all other things being equal. Just because someone picks young songs means they will do well. For contestants with over 10 songs performed, Chris Richardson and Blake Lewis were both unmatched in picking younger songs, but neither has exactly set the charts on fire. However, in a matchup where the overall package on both sides is reasonably competitive, then song age makes the difference.

The trend is most clearly apparent in the previous seasons. After the Season Four finale, not everyone would have anticipated the wide gap in sales between Carrie and Bo. However, the following numbers may tell the tale:

Carrie Underwood Song Age Median (Finals only): 18
Bo Bice Song Age Median (Finals only): 31

If one includes the three songs each performed during the semis, the disparity becomes even starker:

Carrie Underwood Song Age Median: 14.5
Bo Bice Song Age Median: 31.5

Take note that in both cases, the song age averages were not too far off. However, Bo lowered his average mainly by picking a handful of songs that were quite recent - two 2004 songs, plus two new songs in the finale. By contrast, Carrie’s song selection was generally younger, even if a few songs more than 40 years old raised her average age to the mid-20s.

What about the Season Five numbers? We can find two lessons in those numbers. First of all is a validation of the lesson learned in Season Four: younger songs can be a sign of post-show success. Consider:

Chris Daughtry Song Age Average (Finals only): 23.82
Chris Daughtry Song Age Median (Finals only): 28
Chris Daughtry Song Age Median (All songs): 17.5

Taylor Hicks Song Age Average (Finals only): 31.41
Taylor Hicks Song Age Median (Finals only): 33
Taylor Hicks Song Age Median (All songs): 33

The lesson is clear: while Chris Daughtry turned out to be less appealing to Idol voters, with his younger songs attracting a similarly younger fanbase he did quite well in actual record sales. However, as anyone will clearly remember, Katharine McPhee surprised most pundits by getting into the finale. How did she do it? Again, the numbers tell the tale.

Katharine McPhee Song Age Median (Top 12 to Top 4): 22
Chris Daughtry Song Age Median (Top 12 to Top 4): 28

Katharine McPhee Song Age Median (Top 12 to Top 3): 21
Elliott Yamin Song Age Median (Top 12 to Top 3): 33

Song age was clearly the difference in the McPhee-Daughtry matchup, but probably less so with McPhee-Yamin. That was the week we got Over The Rainbow, after all. Still, it’s enough to prove the point. Song age does matter.

The question is - why? It comes from a simple fact. Younger voters do prefer songs that are closer to their own musical coming of age. There’s some room for leeway, but only so much. It’s pretty much a given that the Idol voting audience skews young and female; how can you expect people to like songs that may well be twice their age? It’s a stretch by any standard. Most contestants know this, of course, which is why, style permitting, the smart ones pick younger songs when they can.

Case in point: the Season Four Final Four, given the task of picking country songs, all checked in with songs under a decade old. In Season Five, during country night, only two out of the nine left opted for songs over twenty: the rest all used more contemporary material, resulting in a season low average of 13.89 and a median of 9. Consider this, too: both Carrie Underwood and Chris Daughtry used two songs less than a decade old in their respective semifinal stints.

What does all this mean, in turn, for our remaining three contestants? Lets look at their numbers so far:

David Cook Song Age Average (All songs): 26.21
David Archuleta Song Age Average (All songs): 30.43
Syesha Mercado Song Age Average (All songs): 32.5

David Cook Song Age Median (All songs): 25.5
David Archuleta Song Age Median (All songs): 32
Syesha Mercado Song Age Median (All songs): 36.5

No wonder Syesha’s been treading water for so long: with songs of that vintage, she was never going to appeal to the young power voters. She’s had to depend on an awful lot of luck to get to this far, along with at least trying to sing her heart out. Barring a major disaster from one of the Davids - I Shot The Sheriff-levels would be appropriate - she isn’t going to make the finale. And even then it’s a longshot, at best.

As for the two Davids… we shouldn’t be surprised that David the Younger is singing so above his age - or his fans, for that matter. The “winner’s” song will lower it a bit, but it’s possible that he could trot out plenty of old songs to keep it right where it is. A replay of Imagine is probably in the cards and that won’t help his numbers either.

Clearly, both this year and last, 19E wants a chunk of the tween market. The poster child of this market segment is Miley Cyrus, whose two studio efforts both went triple platinum. (You have no idea how much it hurt for us to write that.) However, we are not convinced that someone singing songs that old is the answer. For all the voting power of his hormone-driven fans, will this really drive sales? History - Chris Daughtry’s and Carrie Underwood’s record low numbers in their seasons - suggests otherwise.

If anyone needed proof of David’s intelligence, the numbers prove it. Unlike his two other competitors, he has been able to find younger material and (usually) make it work for him. For example, in Dolly Parton week he found Little Sparrow - circa 1999. Tellingly, both this week and last he has had the youngest song in the mix - All I Really Need Is You (1991) for Neil Diamond, and Hungry Like The Wolf this week. David knows that it never hurts to have a younger fanbase, no matter what the genre. Accordingly, he is picking younger songs to aid him in this cause. One wonders what we would have gotten had the semifinals not had themes. While his numbers are not yet as low as Carrie and Chris, he’ll get some help in that department. As of this writing, we’ve found out that his personal song choice for the next show dates to 1995. At 13 years, it will probably not be beaten by either David the Younger or Syesha. Well done.

One more thing about this song age analysis. It also partially explains the early shocking boots that anger the Idol punditocracy so much. We’ve offered our own explanations, of course, but the numbers offer a possible glimpse. Consider:

Nadia Turner Song Age Median (Top 12 to Top 8): 30
Michael Johns Song Age Median (Top 12 to Top 8): 32

Nadia’s median, at the time, was second only to Bo Bice… who, coincidentally, also ended up in the bottom two. Michael, meanwhile, was behind a three-way tie for first, all armed with a median of 37. These were Kristy, Brooke, and Syesha. However, Brooke had already established a strong fanbase by this time (insulating her from the “shock boot”), while Kristy chose the top 8 to deliver Anyway - a song so new, its original artist, Martina McBride, did it on the Idol stage as a guest performer. Only Syesha failed to help herself out of the age hole, and Michael went home while she ended up in the bottom group - something she has done since then.

The message for contestants is loud and clear: if you can, do newer material. It will win you more fans (particularly the power voting kind), and it helps protect you from the “shock boot”. There is plenty of good music out there, no matter what the era. It may well be a harder thing to do, but the rewards are worth it.

Chilling out - permanently: It’s safe to say that the Idol stage has never seen the likes of Jason. Whether that’s a good thing or a bad thing, well… let’s just say opinions on that differ widely.

Like Brooke last week, Jason had to do something right to get into the top four. Like her, Jason was able to build a large fanbase very early on. He had good performances in the semifinals - Daydream was a solid start to his campaign, and Hallelujah was the high-water mark of his entire Idol tenure. However, from then on, it was something of a rocky road for Jason.

The phrase we’d use to describe Jason’s ensuing trip was consistently inconsistent. Sometimes, Jason could be very good (Over the Rainbow, although many people might not see it that way), but other times he could be pretty mediocre. Fragile comes to mind here. Again, like Brooke, this made building a fanbase that much harder. With a love-it-or-hate-it style, so-so performances were not going to help Jason out. On the flip side, however, his laid-back manner and general likability did win him votes that his vocals might not have otherwise.

Eventually, however, Jason ended up subjecting his fanbase - and the rest of the Idol audience through three weeks, and five songs, of utter torture. For some reason or another, Jason essentially lost all of the magic he had had in previous episodes. What was left was a voice that was, at best, so-so, and downright poor standing next to the likes of Carly, both Davids, and Syesha. His strong fanbase was able to bail him out twice, but a third time was too much - even for them.

In the end, Jason got the boot because he just didn’t bother to show up, performance-wise. In all our years of Idol-watching, we have never seen any other songs that were delivered with less effort than the five songs that Jason delivered from Memory onward. It was almost like he didn’t care anymore. Was he ready to go home, as some have said? Maybe, but whether he was or was not didn’t matter. The fact of the matter is, Jason delivered five successive bad performances in a row. Five. That was never going to fly with the Idol voting audience for very long, and I Shot The Sheriff was the last straw. The remaining three fanbases heard that miserable performance and decided that their respective champions were not going to be beaten by Jason.

Calm, cool, collected
Maybe a little too much
Call the DEA?

Let’s take a cue from another Fox show and do some elementary math. This week’s Idol episode was a standard, one hour show. However, when you take out all the commercials that’s more like 40 minutes or so. To be precise, this week’s episode was just north of 43 minutes. With ten songs this week, that meant that, on average, each song had about 4 minutes and 20 seconds of airtime. That sounds like a lot, but consider all the other fluff before and after the song: rehearsal video and commentary, the commentary from the judges, and Ryan’s awkward pre-singing questions, and suddenly that doesn’t sound like a lot of time anymore. Normally, we’re as annoyed as anyone else by needlessly long episodes - but this was a night that cried out for more time.

On the other hand, though, maybe the shortened time was a blessing in disguise. More time would only have added to the suffering that was the first half of the show. Let’s be blunt: the first five performances, collectively, were some of the worst we’ve ever seen.

Opening proceedings was Jason’s version of Forever in Blue Jeans. Now, we’re not exactly a Neil Diamond fan - we barely know who he is - but we’re sure he wouldn’t sell that many records if his songs were that dull. The harsh truth is, Jason failed to connect with his material. When he can’t do that, his vocals are just not capable of making him interesting. What he did this time around was more of saying the lyrics than actual singing. There’s a world of difference between the two.

As for David Cook’s version of I’m Alive, it was better than the rest of the first half songs, but that’s not saying much. It was a very average performance - the vocals were okay, but the performance itself was not particularly good. If anything, the vibe we got was… forced. At his best, David comes off as a very natural, charismatic individual - a born performer, almost. He wasn’t that this time.

Next up was Brooke’s I’m A Believer. We like her, but on this particular song… no. Just no. This was not her at all; she had no business choosing this song, period. Has she been taking some of Jason’s, uh, stuff? She usually makes smarter song choices than this.

Not that he’s legal to drink anyway, but David Archuleta would be well advised to stay away from New England sports bars. The Idol-watching portions of Red Sox Nation may not look too kindly on his butchering of their unofficial theme song. The millions of people who, throughout the years, have sung Sweet Caroline at various sports events did better than David did.

Surprisingly, our favorite act during the first half was… Syesha. Admittedly, it was a somewhat throwback performance, but save for the occasional power notes the vocal was excellent. However, the whole package just wasn’t compelling. Yes, it was well sung, but it never dragged us in the way good music does. Still, considering the lousy competition, Syesha easily won the first half.

The second half, on the other hand, was a considerable improvement. Where David Cook was forced and unnatural earlier, All I Really Need Is You came off as natural and right from the heart. It’s not quite as original as his other songs, but overall it was still the best performance of the night.

In the next rung below, we have Brooke and Syesha. I Thank The Lord For The Night Time was something of a lightweight song, but it was fun, entertaining, and played to Syesha’s strong acting ability (even if it sometimes felt overdone). Not a bad way to end the night, in our opinion. As for Brooke, it was far, far better than her first version. I Am… I Said played to her strengths vocally, she was able to set the mood, and she delivered it cleanly - no nerves, no messed-up lyrics, no restart.

David Archuleta pulled out a page from the Kristy Lee Cook strategy page with another, ehem, calculated song choice. Again, we’re not American, so it didn’t affect us on an emotional level. While the performance wasn’t bad, there was precious little to like either. Very, very mediocre performance. We do not understand all the praise from the judges for this song - does Daddy Archuleta have blackmail information on all the judges or something?

In the cellar - again - was Jason Castro. We’re sure Neil Diamond was not a well-known singer of lullabies, but that was exactly how September Morn felt. If it had been any longer, we’d have fallen asleep. It’s almost like he’s not even trying anymore; no attempt at emotional connection, or creativity. It’s not much better than reading the lyrics off a page.

How not to act in public: What can we say that hasn’t been said about Paula’s pre-judging on Tuesday night? For someone who’s paid millions of dollars a year to do what any one of us sitting at home could do, Paula should be ashamed and embarrassed for her “judging”. Unfortunately, Paula Abdul is beyond shame and embarrassment.

However, there’s plenty of blame to go around for this week’s disaster. The producers bit off far more than they could chew with the episode. Yes, the first half was terrible, but the second half was actually pretty decent. Unfortunately, any enjoyment was tempered by the assembly line pace of the show. Everything felt rushed and amateurish. (Even the videography was off. What was with the hands blocking Syesha during her first song? Hello? Did anyone not realize that might happen?)

“Amateurish” is the word we’d use to describe Fox executive Mike Darnell. We’re told that apparently, it was his idea to ask how the three judges felt about the first round - and word got out to Ryan Seacrest just as Syesha was singing her first song. Oh. My. God. Mr. Darnell, please. Improvisation is strictly for comedians. Yes, we know it’s live TV, but this isn’t exactly a news event where you have to fly by the seat of your pants every second. A show like Idol can be planned to some degree: the video segments and songs are of known length, and how long the judges and Ryan will talk can be planned for as well.

Last night was unfair to everyone involved: the contestants, the judges, Neil Diamond, and, most importantly, us at home. Most of us, we’re sure, watch Idol to be entertained, and hopefully catch some interesting music along the way. In all respects, the show failed this week. Both the contestants and us at home deserved better than that travesty we received on Tuesday.

A cure worse than the problem: Carly’s exit last week led to a bit of talk around the Idol punditocracy how the current voting system is broken and needs to be changed. This week, however, should give some pause to at least some of the proposals we’ve heard floating around.

In theory, the Idol judging panel should be capable of producing a well-rounded critique of any performance. Randy is a successful producer, Paula did have a decent singing career, and Simon does have a fairly good idea of the commercial potential of any contestant. In between the three, they should be able to address any problems with a performance.

In practice, however, the judging are a nightmare. Paula doesn’t make sense far too often; Randy’s comments are largely well-worn, but meaningless stock phrases (”dawg”, “da bomb”, and “aight” come to mind); and Simon is the closest thing this show has to a decent judge, but he too has a tendency to rely on overblown comparisons (try “cabaret” and “Portuguese nightclub”.) It’s nearly a miracle we get anything useful out of this panel. This is not exactly the judging panel of, say, Dancing with the Stars, which, while sometimes having a tendency to be over-technical, is generally sensible, honest, straight to the point, and good at balancing criticism with encouragement.

The idea of giving more power to this trio is something that has to be considered very carefully. Their track record is not exactly one that can be relied on; if we were on the show we’d take our chances with the public and the hordes of hormone-driven tweens rather than a precognitive Paula Abdul. (An aside: we agree, however, that the show does need an encouraging judge, as Paula is, to balance out Randy and Simon. We just wish, however, that the encouragement was, well, coherent.)

One more proposal that seems to be making the rounds as well is voting for a person to send home, instead of voting to keep someone safe. This would be an even bigger mistake. The trouble is that many otherwise successful singers don’t necessarily have more fans than detractors. In the real world, that’s perfectly fine anyway. The only thing that would result would be “ultra-safe”, non-controversial people doing well. Unfortunately, that is not a formula for success in the real world. Besides, this would make for dull TV as well.

While we’re on the topic of supposed problems hounding Idol, let’s talk about themes. Neil Diamond was considered an “ancient” theme by many pundits, and there have been many cries for more “contemporary” themes, befitting the younger demographic that Idol supposedly aims for.

We agree that Neil Diamond night may not have been the smartest of ideas, but we say: be careful what you wish for. There have been a few episodes with very contemporary themes, but they haven’t all turned out very well. Season Four did the 1990s at Top 10 and 2000s at Top 6, and came out with mixed results. A mixed theme night for Top 5 included songs from the Billboard charts at the time went somewhat better, but couldn’t avoid subpar performances from two out of five people remaining - only above-average performances from Carrie, Bo, and Vonzell saved that half of the show.

Season Five also tried out the 2000s theme, with poor results: only Taylor and Elliott did quite well, with the rest of the night consisting mainly of disasters like Kellie’s Suds In The Bucket and Chris shouting, not singing, What If, or downright mediocre performances. It was, without a doubt, the worst finals episode of that season.

The basic problem with a more “contemporary” theme is that you can’t do the single-artist themes that Idol is so fond of. Most artists that fit that label don’t really have the depth of material to pick from. Consider: most artists today can take anywhere from two to four years to record a new album. How many hit songs can each album produce? Let’s be generous and say four.

Now, what’s the absolute minimum for, say, a top 12 field to actually have some songs to choose from? We know that TPTB gave the top 12 exactly 25 songs to choose from the Lennon-McCartney songbook. So using that as a lower bound, we can see that it’ll take around six albums to get that much material to, realistically, choose from. Assuming a new album every three years, we get… eighteen years of songs from debut onwards. (Coincidentally, Mariah Carey made her debut in 1990.)

This computation, of course, uses something of a “worst case” - single artist night only, but it makes the broader point felt. A “contemporary” theme tends to restrict song choice more than any other. There are many reasons for this (difficulty in getting song clearance, for one), but the end result is the same. TPTB know this, of course, which may offer one reason they don’t do those themes. When they do try, they at least try to broaden the available material - picking “decade” themes, or even using half-baked abortions like “Songs By Gwen Stefani Or Those That Inspired Her” last year.

Our proposed solution? Move away from artist- and era-specific themes to more genre-based ones. Now, this may be a strange suggestion coming from us, but it’s becoming quite clear that nowadays, because the theme is one specific genre no longer means it has to be sung in that genre only. In particular, contestants in the New Idol mold we keep talking about - are excellent at taking a theme and making it fit their own musical direction. No longer does, say, “Country Week” mean every song have to be done like a country song. Contestants are now free, and able, to pick a song from any genre, and turn it into their own in a degree unprecedented before.

The advantage? Genre-based themes have better song selection possibilities. With no restriction based on artist and era, a smart contestant will be able to find something that fits him or her well - something that may be harder with the artist or era themes that are the norm.

The Idol Power Rankings: The last time we saw a final two shape up with this kind of inevitability was Bice-Underwood in Season Four. Strange things can happen, of course, but right now that’s the way things look. These will also be the last Power Rankings of the season; after next week it’ll be obvious who’s heading for the finale, and it’s sort of pointless to rank just three people.

1. David Cook (Last week: 1)
I’m Alive was a mis-step, but his second song made up for it. The kind of consistency David is able to show is remarkable.

2. David Archuleta (Last week: 2)
Two non-ballads… with rather significant quantities of fail. Yes, he’s 16, but that does not excuse the fact that he is the most over-praised contestant in Idol history.

3. Jason Castro (Last week: 3)
Under normal circumstances, Brooke’s exit would help him, but her fans might not take well to the grin he sported while she was saying goodbye. Still, you can’t argue with a fanbase that put him through last week and this week’s dual trainwrecks. That might be what saves him next week.

4. Syesha Mercado (Last week: 5)
Syesha’s appearance in the bottom two must be some sort of record. She’s been in the bottom group five times in a row. How much longer can this last?

Down goes the nanny: Early on, we had Brooke plugged in as a front-runner. Somewhere along the way, though, things went very wrong for her. So what did happen?

Let’s be fair. Brooke did make it to the top five, so she was doing something right. The secret to her success was building a fanbase, and doing it early. She established her musical identity - that of the folk singer/songwriter - very early on, and backed that up with top-notch performances. She got off to what can only be described as an excellent start.

The trouble was, though, after that excellent start she was unable to maintain the pace. From the Top 9 (Jolene) to last week’s You Must Love Me, she delivered a full month of performances that ranged from the bad to the merely okay. Admittedly, some of that damage was due to ill-fitting themes, but most were self-inflicted: a bad case of nerves during Hero, and the infamous false start last week. Whatever the causes, that spelled trouble: you can’t go that long without a genuinely good performance and keep building a fanbase to vote for you. When Brooke was good, she was as good as anyone else. Unfortunately, when she was bad, she was very, very, bad.

In many ways, Brooke’s exit is under the same circumstances as Carly’s last week. I Am… I Said was Brooke at the top of her game, but it was also her last performance. Just like Carly, Brooke’s fans remembered the good performance, and slacked off just a little from the two previous weeks. Again, like Carly, this was a mistake against two energized fanbases - Jason’s (due not just to his weak performances, but also aggravation at Paula’s pre-judging) and Syesha’s (courtesy of Simon’s comments). However, if she had managed to build up a stronger fanbase during that month of coasting, chances are she would have likely survived.

The lesson future contestants must learn: you have to bring your A-game every week. An off week (so long as it’s not in the late stages of the show) will generally not cause permanent damage, but an off month will. Brooke didn’t, which is a pity - we would have loved to see her go further.

And now… the bye-ku.

Nervous, forgetful
Nanny from Arizona
Sent home, short of four

Andrew Lloyd Webber songs are meant to get a powerful emotional reaction out of their listeners - they’re musicals, after all. This week, our top 6 succeeded in getting that from America. However, that may have had more to do with Carly’s exit than anything else. So how did the Idols play with our emotions on Tuesday night?

First of all, a disclaimer: we claim about zero familiarity with the works of Lord Webber. We can imagine the hordes of music fans rushing to their keyboards and getting ready to call us a musical ignoramus. That may well be the case, but the reality is that a lot of people aren’t. Idol geeks are, in many cases, music geeks as well, and those tend to be more aware of Broadway songs than the general population. Here’s something to keep in mind: people who are not aware of the original songs, as we were, will react differently to those who are. It’s true of every night, but because of the theme, that’s even more true than usual.

The two “worst” of the night were Jason and Brooke. We use the term “worst” relatively, however. It wasn’t that bad, given what they were up against. ALW night was always going to be tough on them because the material favors singers with big, powerful voices - something that neither of them have. It wasn’t going to be a smooth night for them, even under best circumstances.

Neither of them helped their causes much, though: Jason’s singing was heartfelt, but breathy. Not his best effort, but we weren’t quite cringing. As for Brooke, while the false start didn’t bother us much, it did for many online pundits. The singing itself, while better than we’ve seen from her of late, wasn’t quite as good as we expected from this stage of the show. It was, as Randy would say, “okay”, but nothing more.

Next on the ladder was David Archuleta. Our reaction to him is rapidly becoming similar to Fantasia’s, which is not a good thing. We see the talent in David, but he leaves us absolutely and completely bored. Hisfangirls kept him safe this week, and probably will for the foreseeable future, but it’s all the same week in, week out. We’re not entertained.

To make up for those three disappointments, we had three very good performances. Syesha learned not to rely on screechy glory notes and called upon her acting skills to produce her best performance to date. The acting was, to us, a bit overdone, but it suited the theme reasonably well. The overall impact, however, was excellent. Well done.

Carly also had a good night, which makes her departure that much more disappointing. Carly sometimes doesn’t look all that natural and at ease on stage, but that was not the case here. She was in command of that stage with both her vocals, stage presence, and, remarkably enough, charisma. It’s a pity she had to go home this week, but more on that later. One more thing: we had to love that T-shirt she pulled out after her performance.

David Cook surprised us a little by going with a relatively straightforward version, but on the whole it worked reasonably well. It was very different from his usual takes, but we enjoyed it, though not as much as Carly or Syesha.

More than one chance to screw up: The top 5 now move into a particularly dangerous territory: multiple songs every week. If we have one piece of advice, it’s this. Better to have one good, showstopper song and one bad or below-average one, than have average songs, even if none of them aretrainwrecks. People will tend to remember the good one, and forget about the bad song, no matter how horrific it is. Katharine McPhee can be considered the perfect example. During the top 4 and top 3 episodes, respectively, she sang Black Horse And The Cherry Tree and Over The Rainbow, two of her best performances all season long. It made up for the rest of her songs during those weeks, which ranged from the average to the dismal.

The Idol Power Rankings: Maybe our contestants should be wary if they’re not in the bottom slot. It seems to be that most of the boots have come from the middle of our rankings, not the cellar. Just remember the Idol Guy 100% Satisfaction Guarantee: All predictions and analysis will satisfy you, or you get your money back. Oh, wait…

Not much change in the charts this week: David Cook is still comfortably ahead of the rest of the field. The other David follows him (not too closely), and the remaining five are… well, it’s a little cramped.

1. David Cook (Last week: 1)
Not only did David Cook navigate through ALW week unscathed, he did so with a straightforward version, proving he’s not just about the re-arrangements.

2. David Archuleta (Last week: 2)
We’re getting sick of ballad after ballad after ballad. Can he do anything else? At the rate things are going, David would find a way to turn the Macarena into a ballad.

3. Jason Castro (Last week: 3)
If singing doesn’t work out, maybe Jason can write a book on how to cope with stress. Has there anyone been more relaxed about his tenure on Idol than Jason?

4. Brooke White (Last week: 5)
Her fanbase has come up big for her whenever she needs it, but that’s a limited commodity. Another mistake will get her sent home.

5. Syesha Mercado (Last week: 6)
Syesha has been in the bottom two or three five times already, and this was the third week in a row she’s been in there. Maybe she should take a page from Kristy Lee Cook and have the Stools of Sorrow labelled.

It’s been that way forever: Both Carly and Michael’s exits were met with more complaints of how the show is no longer about “singing”, but now a mere popularity contest. We’ve become used to hearing something along those lines every year once a talented contestant leaves before their time.

Time for a reality check. The idea of the success of anything being based on pure merit is an alluring one for just about everyone - none more so than America, where it’s deeply embedded into the national psyche (the American Dream, the Protestant work ethic). As an ideal, it’s pretty good. Implementation, however, is tricky, as any engineer worth his salt knows (which, for the record, we are.)

There are many reasons why Idol has never been, and never will be, judged on pure merit alone. How do you define “merit” anyway? The answer: you can’t. Good singing, good music, is not about the glory note, the “pitchiness”, or the power.

It comes down to one fundamental fact: music cannot be judged objectively in any way. There’s more to music than the ability to hit a high note, or perfect enunciation, or any of the technical matters that singing coaches love to cite. You could fulfill every item on a music technician’s checklist - be the most perfect vocalist, but be a failure as a musician. Music, like all art forms, is based on conveying emotions, and that varies infinitely with every individual. One person’s idea of musical heaven might well be another’s nails on chalkboard.

More to the point, people don’t always buy music just because someone’s “tone” or “pitch” is perfect. There are many singers who may not be technically the best - they don’t have the multi-octave rangers, or the ten-second-long glory note - but they are able to connect emotionally with the audience brilliantly. Whether it’s to bring them to tears, or make them laugh, or make the go “wow”, it doesn’t matter. They bring feeling to the music.

Critics use the “popularity contest” meme to denigrate the show, but what they forget is that it’s never been about just the “singing” in the first place. People react to the same song, the same singer, the same arrangement in very different ways. That’s been true since Season One; that’s what people vote on. Yes, it’s a popularity contest, but the Idol voting process measures, within reason, that kind of emotional impact. It’s not perfect - no system is - but it’s better than most of the alternatives we’ve heard. The most horrifying prospect we’ve heard is giving the judges input in the finals. Yes, you could say it’s a “popularity contest”, but it has always been that way.

Yet another shocker that isn’t: What is it with some boots on Idol that people can’t react to them without being incredibly emotional? We’ve done the rounds of the Idol punditocracy, and it seems to be that the universal reaction is one of disbelief, anger, and more calls of how idiotic other people are?

Time for a dose of coffee and sobriety. Carly’s boot is something of a complicated one. A lot of factors came into play: some of them have been hanging around for a while, but some were directly due to what happened this week.

On pure vocals alone, Carly is perhaps the best contestant this season, and maybe even one of the better ones Idol has ever seen in seven seasons. However, her problem has always been difficulty connecting with her material, and this made building afanbase difficult. This was obvious when Carly ended up in the bottom three twice: once deservedly, the other not quite as much.

The other long-term problem that hurt Carly was vote splitting. Her natural genre is rock; however she was never alone in that genre the way Kristy was, andSyesha is. She was always splitting votes with David Cook. This also made her fanbase somewhat smaller that it would have been under other circumstances.

Unlike Kristy, Carly was able to repair the damage to her fanbase early on, but there would always be some after effects. Her fanbase was good enough to get her into the top six, but compared to the others it would always be a little underpowered. Still, her good performance should have gotten her enough votes to stay, right? Wrong. She ran into a classic perfect Idol storm.

One of the paradoxes of this show is that it’s not necessarily the best performances that give you the most votes each week. Sometimes, a bad - or what is perceived to be bad - performance can actually get more votes, thanks to afanbase that has a desire to “save” their favored bet. Brooke’s and Jason’s fanbases got the call this week, and both answered. It helped their causes, too, that both had been built early before fanbases had hardened (as we talked about last week).

It also hurt Carly that her own fanbase had been called upon to “save” her for two straight weeks as well. Their reaction to a good performance was to relax: understandable, but in the face of two energized fanbases a mistake. The result was the votes not being there when Carly needed them. This is not an unusual circumstance: Idol history is replete with cases when a relaxed fanbase sees their champion do well, becomes confident, sleeps on the job, and is shocked by the results. Ask the Melinda Doolittle fans.

What can we learn from Carly’s exit? First, for future AI contestants, you have to be on top of your game early on. You have to be able to impress voters right from the start; you also need to show a clear musical identity relatively early. If you can do that - if you can develop a fanbase early on - then you’ve got some room for error later on. If you can’t do that, then you’ve got no room for any mistakes. To be sure of staying every week, you have to be exceptional every Tuesday night. Even then, however, that strategy has limits.

The other lesson is for AI voters: the word relax shouldn’t really be in your vocabulary, and certainly not with this few people left. For fanboys or fangirls, assume that every week, your bet is at risk. There’s no ifs, ands, or buts about that. For once, Paula’s right. Because the Idol voting base is more diverse than it ever has been before - an offshot of the new Idol we’ve been talking about - each and every contestant has a “ginormous” fanbase.

The same, in a way, holds for the rest of the Idol punditocracy. If they want the “best” to go forward, then it has to vote that way. It’s a bit rich to throw peanuts from the safety of a keyboard, when it’s perfectly possible to at least try and do so.

And now, the much anticipated bye-ku.

Taken by surprise
Carly Smithson, Superstar?
Cannot predict now